EBookClubs

Read Books & Download eBooks Full Online

EBookClubs

Read Books & Download eBooks Full Online

Book Inflation Expectations

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Book Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy

Download or read book Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond presents the full text of an article entitled "Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy," by Marvin Goodfriend. The article was published in the Summer 1998 issue of "Economic Quarterly." Goodfriend discusses how the term structure of interest rates serves as a link in the transmission of monetary policy and as an indicator of inflation expectations.

Book Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Download or read book Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Mirko Abbritti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to explain long-term dynamics in yield curves, as opposed to domestic factors which are instead more relevant to short-run movements. We uncover the key role for global curvature in shaping term premia dynamics. We show that this novel factor precedes global economic and financial instability. In particular, it coincides with immediate expectations of permanent expansionary monetary policy during the recent crisis.

Book The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Download or read book The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Frank Browne and published by [Paris, France] : OECD, Department of Economics and Statistics. This book was released on 1989 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book Real Interest Rates Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Download or read book Real Interest Rates Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Li-Hsueh Chen and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book A Multi country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation

Download or read book A Multi country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides evidence on what the term structure (for maturities of twelve months or less) tells us about future inflation in ten OECD countries. The empirical results on the information in the term structure contrast with those that find that the level of interest rates help forecast the future level of inflation. Instead, they indicate that for the majority of the countries in the sample, the term structure does not contain a great deal of information about the future path of inflation. The results for France, the United Kingdom and Germany tell a different story, however. In these countries, the term structure contains a highly significant amount of information about future changes in inflation. The evidence in this paper suggests that central banks for most of the countries studied here should exercise some caution in using the term structure of interest rates as a guide for assessing inflationary pressures in the economy, as is currently under consideration in the U.S. central bank. Although there is significant information in the term structure about the future path of inflation for a few of the countries, this is not a result that is true in general. The empirical evidence does reveal, however, that for every country studied except the United Kingdom, there is a great deal of information in the term structure of nominal' interest rates about the term structure of real' interest rates. This finding is an extremely useful one because it suggests that for most countries researchers can examine observable data on the nominal term structure to provide them with information about the behavior of the real' term structure.

Book Heterogeneous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates Least Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Targeting

Download or read book Heterogeneous Information About the Term Structure of Interest Rates Least Squares Learning and Optimal Interest Rate Rules for Inflation Targeting written by Eric Schaling and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e., the central bank and private agents - who have different information sets about the future sequence of short-term interest rates. We analyse inflation forecast targeting in two environments. One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector interest rate expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has imperfect knowledge and has to learn the private sector forecasting rule for short-term interest rates. In the case of imperfect knowledge, the central bank has to learn about private sector interest rate expectations, as the latter affect the impact of monetary policy through the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates. Here, following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation and control. Therefore, this model suggests that the practical relevance of the breakdown of the separation principle and the need for experimentation in policy may be limited.

Book Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Download or read book Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Qiang Dai and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomists want to understand the effects of fiscal policy on interest rates, while financial economists look for the factors that drive the dynamics of the yield curve. To shed light on both issues, we present an empirical macro-finance model that combines a no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a set of structural restrictions that allow us to identify fiscal policy shocks, and trace the effects of these shocks on the prices of bonds of different maturities. Compared to a standard VAR, this approach has the advantage of incorporating the information embedded in a large cross-section of bond prices. Moreover, the pricing equations provide new ways to assess the model's ability to capture risk preferences and expectations. Our results suggest that (i) government deficits affect long term interest rates: a one percentage point increase in the deficit to GDP ratio, lasting for 3 years, will eventually increase the 10-year rate by 40--50 basis points; (ii) this increase is partly due to higher expected spot rates, and partly due to higher risk premia on long term bonds; and (iii) the fiscal policy shocks account for up to 12% of the variance of forecast errors in bond yields.

Book Monetary Policy Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules and the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Shu Wu and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Book The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules

Download or read book The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules written by Josephine M. Smith and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We first document a large secular shift in the estimated response of the entire term structure of interest rates to inflation and output in the United States. The shift occurred in the early 1980s. We then derive an equation that links these responses to the coefficients of the central bank's monetary policy rule for the short-term interest rate. The equation reveals two countervailing forces that help explain and understand the nature of the link and how its sign is determined. Using this equation, we show that a shift in the policy rule in the early 1980s provides an explanation for the observed shift in the term structure. We also explore a shift in the policy rule in the 2002-2005 period and its possible effect on long-term rates.

Book Forecasting Future Economic Growth

Download or read book Forecasting Future Economic Growth written by Maria Khait and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The broad literature documents the empirical regularity that slope of the term structure of interest rates is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Steeper slopes presage increasing growth, and downward sloping term structures presage declining growth or even recession. Some instances of slope's misleading signals were recorded in 2006 (the term structure was flat, indicating decline in economic activity when high growth continued) and 2008 (the term structure was very steep, predicting economic growth when recession continued and took a deep dive). Moreover, Breeden (2012a) showed that the term structure of interest rates has had less predictive power over the past fifty years than has been found in earlier researches over shorter periods of time. The key idea underlying this paper was to test whether the term structure of volatility and the term structure of inflation combined with the term spread could improve predictions of future economic growth compared to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable. This study finds that while the term structure spread and volatility appear to be statistically significant variables there is little evidence of improved performance compare to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable.