Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Download or read book The Fundamental Elements of Strategy written by Xiu-bao Yu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-03-29 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book clarifies confusions of strategy that have existed for nearly 40 years through the core thoughts of three fundamental elements. Unlike the traditional definition of strategy as "a plan to achieve a long-term goal from overall considerations”in a linear view, this book defines strategy from non-linear viewpoint as it is in the real world. The art of a strategy lies not only in the determination of development goals, but also in the identification of development problems and putting forward overall guiding ideology of solving problems. Rich illustrations as well as numerous business and military cases are presented in helping readers to understand the fundamental elements of strategy.The general scope of the book includes introductions to the three fundamental elements of strategy, three-sub decisions of a complete strategic decision, incomplete strategies, relationship between tactic and strategy, three elements of competitive and corporative strategies. There may be biases in company-level, real strategic decision-making which makes a complete strategy not necessarily a perfect one. The book introduces biases and reasons for the biases, helping industrial strategic decision-makers understand the importance of knowing the nature of the company, the industry and its environment. In addition, this book also presents principles and evaluation approaches of strategic decisions, explores the reasons for the excessive definitions of the strategy concept, and discusses directions of future’s research tasks.The book will benefit business managers who are interested in knowing what a complete strategic decision is and how to avoid errors or biases in strategic decision-making. It also benefits students in business schools (especially in MBA/EMBA programs) who are (or will be) on executive positions. Academic researchers may find it is interesting to understand strategy from the view of the three elements. The new view provides a novel insight into strategy and promotes several research directions in the future. The three elements of strategy are also applicable to military strategies and readers who are interested in military and may find its value as well.

Download or read book Thinking Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: *Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.

Download or read book Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences written by Richard M. Adler and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-02-10 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title provides managers, executives and other professionals with an innovative method for critical decision-making. The book explains the reasons for decision failures using the Law of Unintended Consequences. This account draws on the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and economist Herbert Simon to identify two primary causes⁠: cognitive biases and bounded rationality. It introduces an innovative method for “test driving” decisions that addresses both causes by combining scenario planning and “what-if” simulations. This method enables professionals to learn safely from virtual mistakes rather than real ones. It also provides four sample test drives of realistic critical decisions as well as two instructional videos to illustrate this new method. This book provides leaders and their support teams with important new tools for analyzing and refining complex decisions that are critical to organizational well-being and survival.

Download or read book Giving Voice to Values written by Mary C. Gentile and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2010-08-24 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can you effectively stand up for your values when pressured by your boss, customers, or shareholders to do the opposite? Drawing on actual business experiences as well as on social science research, Babson College business educator and consultant Mary Gentile challenges the assumptions about business ethics at companies and business schools. She gives business leaders, managers, and students the tools not just to recognize what is right, but also to ensure that the right things happen. The book is inspired by a program Gentile launched at the Aspen Institute with Yale School of Management, and now housed at Babson College, with pilot programs in over one hundred schools and organizations, including INSEAD and MIT Sloan School of Management. She explains why past attempts at preparing business leaders to act ethically too often failed, arguing that the issue isn’t distinguishing what is right or wrong, but knowing how to act on your values despite opposing pressure. Through research-based advice, practical exercises, and scripts for handling a wide range of ethical dilemmas, Gentile empowers business leaders with the skills to voice and act on their values, and align their professional path with their principles. Giving Voice to Values is an engaging, innovative, and useful guide that is essential reading for anyone in business.

Download or read book Strategic Decisions written by Vassilis Papadakis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past ten years, there has been growing interest in the process of strategic decision-making among both managers and researchers. Strategic decisions are important for five main reasons: They are large-scale, risky and hard to reverse; they are a bridge between deliberate and emerging strategies; they can be a major source of organizational learning; they play an important part in the development of individual managers and they cut accross functions and academic disciplines. Strategic Decisions summarizes the current state of the art in research on strategic decision-making, with chapters prepared by leading strategy researchers. The editors also present implications for current application and proposed directions for future research.

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

Download or read book Think Again written by Sydney Finkelstein and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2009-02-03 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do smart and experienced leaders make flawed, even catastrophic, decisions? Why do people keep believing they have made the right choice, even with the disastrous result staring them in the face? And how can you be sure you're making the right decision--without the benefit of hindsight? Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell show how the usually beneficial processes of the human mind can become traps when we face big decisions. The authors show how the shortcuts our brains have learned to take over millennia of evolution can derail our decision making. Think Again offers a powerful model for making better decisions, describing the key red flags to watch for and detailing the decision-making safeguards we need. Using examples from business, politics, and history, Think Again deconstructs bad decisions, as they unfolded in real time, to show how you can avoid the same fate.

Download or read book Strategic Instincts written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-08-30 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A very timely book."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information. Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance. Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.

Download or read book The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making 2 Volume Set written by Gideon Keren and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-16 with total page 1056 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes

Download or read book Never Go With Your Gut written by Gleb Tsipursky and published by Red Wheel/Weiser. This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This book is Moneyball for management. It will help you understand your subconscious biases that can lead to bad decisions, and it will teach you the techniques to help you make better decisions.” —Gordon Tredgold, author of Fast “This well-written, go-against-the-grain book is full of practical ways to tap into your very best mental resources to make better and better decisions.” —Brian Tracy, bestselling author of Eat that Frog! Want to avoid business disasters, whether minor mishaps, such as excessive team conflict, or major calamities like those that threaten bankruptcy or doom a promising career? Fortunately, behavioral economics studies show that such disasters stem from poor decisions due to our faulty mental patterns—what scholars call “cognitive biases”—and are preventable. Unfortunately, the typical advice for business leaders to “go with their guts” plays into these cognitive biases and leads to disastrous decisions that devastate the bottom line. By combining practical case studies with cutting-edge research, Never Go With Your Gut will help you make the best decisions and prevent these business disasters. The leading expert on avoiding business disasters, Dr. Gleb Tsipursky, draws on over 20 years of extensive consulting, coaching, and speaking experience to show how pioneering leaders and organizations—many of them his clients—avoid business disasters. Reading this book will enable you to: Discover how pioneering leaders and organizations address cognitive biases to avoid disastrous decisions. Adapt best practices on avoiding business disasters from these leaders and organizations to your own context. Develop processes that empower everyone in your organization to avoid business disasters.

Download or read book Overcoming Cognitive Biases in Strategic Management and Decision Making written by Siniksaran, Enis and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-02-12 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The persistent presence of cognitive biases has influenced rational decisions and strategic management since the 1970s. These prejudiced errors in judgment, often systematic and predictable, breach the foundational assumptions of economic theory, leading to dire consequences such as social inequality, financial collapse, and governmental inefficiency. Even the brightest minds are not immune, making it crucial to address these biases head-on. Overcoming Cognitive Biases in Strategic Management and Decision Making unravels the complex tapestry of biases that infiltrate decision-making processes at all levels. From social injustice biases and reasoning errors to action-inaction and social biases, the book confronts the myriad of ways that biases manifest in critical moments. These pose a significant threat to sound decision-making in various fields, impacting professionals ranging from judges and doctors to public officials. The repercussions of unchecked biases are far-reaching, leading to flawed outcomes that echo through society. The urgent need for a strategic response to mitigate these biases and enhance decision-making processes forms the crux of the problem this book seeks to address.

Download or read book Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision Making Process written by Juárez Ramos, Verónica and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-11-16 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making or making judgments is an essential function in the ordinary life of any individual. Decisions can often be made easily, but sometimes, it can be difficult due to conflict, uncertainty, or ambiguity of the variables required to make the decision. As human beings, we constantly have to decide between different activities such as occupational, recreational, political, economic, etc. These decisions can be transcendental or inconsequential. Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process presents comprehensive research focusing on cognitive shortcuts in the decision-making process. While highlighting topics including jumping to conclusion bias, personality traits, and theoretical models, this book is ideally designed for mental health professionals, psychologists, sociologists, managers, academicians, researchers, and upper-level students seeking current research on cognitive biases that affect individual decision making in daily life.

Download or read book Managing the Future written by Haridimos Tsoukas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-02-09 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, leading authors explore ways in which organizationscan develop their ability to manage the future. An exploration of the ways in which organizations can developtheir ability to manage the future. Consists of ten papers written by authors from both sides ofthe Atlantic and from Asia, all of whom are distinguished scholarsin the fields of strategy or organizational learning. Addresses key questions about how organizational foresight canbe conceptualized and developed, and the extent to which it ispossible. The papers are prefaced by a foreword from Spyros Makridakisand an introduction from the editors. Helps to shape a new research agenda, and so will be ofinterest to academics, as well as to students andpractitioners.

Download or read book People Risk Management written by Keith Blacker and published by Kogan Page Publishers. This book was released on 2015-04-03 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People Risk Management provides unique depth to a topic that has garnered intense interest in recent years. Based on the latest thinking in corporate governance, behavioural economics, human resources and operational risk, people risk can be defined as the risk that people do not follow the organization's procedures, practices and/or rules, thus deviating from expected behaviour in a way that could damage the business's performance and reputation. From fraud to bad business decisions, illegal activity to lax corporate governance, people risk - often called conduct risk - presents a growing challenge in today's complex, dispersed business organizations. Framed by corporate events and challenges and including case studies from the LIBOR rate scandal, the BP oil spill, Lehman Brothers, Royal Bank of Scotland and Enron, People Risk Management provides best-practice guidance to managing risks associated with the behaviour of both employees and those outside a company. It offers practical tools, real-world examples, solutions and insights into how to implement an effective people risk management framework within an organization.

Download or read book Cognitive Illusions written by Rüdiger F Pohl and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2016-07-22 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cognitive Illusions explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. Featuring contributions from leading researchers, the book defines what cognitive illusions are and discusses their theoretical status: are such illusions proof for a faulty human information-processing system, or do they only represent by-products of otherwise adaptive cognitive mechanisms? Throughout the book, background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias are discussed, before considering the respective empirical research, potential explanations of the phenomenon, and relevant applied perspectives. Each chapter also features the detailed description of an experiment that can be used as classroom demonstration. Featuring six new chapters, this edition has been thoroughly updated throughout to reflect recent research and changes of focus within the field. This book will be of interest to students and researchers of cognitive illusions, specifically, those focusing on thinking, reasoning, decision-making and memory.