Download or read book The Predictability of Extratropical Transition and of Its Impact on the Downstream Flow written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this project we investigated the basic mechanisms that determine the predictability of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) and of their impact on the downstream flow. The analysis of ensemble forecasts for five ET cases showed that uncertainty is associated with the location and amplitude of a characteristic upper-level trough-ridge-trough pattern consisting of the trough that interacts with the tropical cyclone, a ridge directly downstream and a second trough downstream of the ridge. Experiments for Typhoon Tokage (2004) with the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts showed that targeted perturbations led to increased spread around and shortly after ET time whereas the spread due to stochastic physics increased at a later time as the influence of the targeted perturbations decreased. Idealized modelling combined with potential vorticity inversion was used to quantify the mechanisms responsible for this variability. Furthermore, dropsonde data in the vicinity of tropical cyclones were shown to reduce the medium-range forecast error for the downstream flow.
Download or read book Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems written by Julia Henriette Keller and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study examines the predictability during the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), a multimodel ensemble prediction system (EPS). It is shown that TIGGE exhibits more possible development scenarios than a single EPS. By analysing the eddy kinetic energy budget of forecast scenarios for two ET cases, extracted from an EPS, the impact of the transitioning tropical cyclones on the midlatitude flow is studied in detail.
Download or read book Quantification of the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition for Typhoon Jangmi and Other Case Studies written by Grams, Christian Michael Warnfrid and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of extratropical transition on the midlatitude flow is quantified based on potential vorticity inversion. The detailed study of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) reveals the diabatically enhanced net transport of low-PV air to the tropopause as the key physical process determining the direct impact of ET. Relocation experiments and further case studies show the crucial role of the relative position of the TC and the midlatitude flow for the downstream impact of ET and the reduced predictability.
Download or read book Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impact of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since an extratropical transition (ET) of a decaying tropical cyclone (TC) often results in a fast-moving, rapidly developing extratropical cyclone and amplification of synoptic-scale systems far downstream, proper forecasting of ET events is critical to forecast accuracy over large ocean regions. Past studies have linked forecast accuracy to the phasing of a decaying TC with favorable midlatitudes conditions. Because ET events are sensitive to the analyzed initial conditions, this phasing is examined using 11 member ensemble predictions available four times daily from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which were combined into a single 44 member ensemble based on a common forecast verification time. Recurring ET patterns within the 44 member ensemble were objectively identified using a combination of EOF and cluster analysis. Ensemble spread first appears near the point where the TC moves into the midlatitudes and then propagates downstream. Although ensemble spread in the forecast fields was large at extended forecast intervals, the ensemble spread, and the number of ET patterns identified in successive EPS predictions, decreased as the ET process became better defined. Within 48 hours of the ET event, the ensemble prediction system properly identified the ET pattern with a minimum ensemble spread. Similar to Klein et al. (2002), the shifts in the initial position of the TC and the subsequent dynamical coupling can explain differences between weak and strong ET reintensifications.
Download or read book Christus und die Samariterin written by and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Quantification of the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition for Typhoon Jangmi and Other Case Studies written by Christian Michael Warnfrid Grams and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of extratropical transition on the midlatitude flow is quantified based on potential vorticity inversion. The detailed study of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) reveals the diabatically enhanced net transport of low-PV air to the tropopause as the key physical process determining the direct impact of ET. Relocation experiments and further case studies show the crucial role of the relative position of the TC and the midlatitude flow for the downstream impact of ET and the reduced predictability. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
Download or read book Dynamics and Predictability of Large Scale High Impact Weather and Climate Events written by Jianping Li and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-03-24 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume, written by leading researchers in the field, covers a range of important research issues related to high-impact weather and extreme climate events. Dynamical linkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and ocean phenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multidecadal, North Atlantic, and Madden–Julian Oscillations; Annular Modes; tropical cyclones; and Asian monsoons. This book also examines the predictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events on multiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advances in the field, this book enhances understanding of dynamical and physical processes associated with these events to help managers and policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on future research directions in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, and weather forecasting, for experts and young scientists.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems written by Julia Henriette Keller and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate written by Jennifer Collins and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Landfalling tropical cyclones physical processes forecasting and impacts written by Yihong Duan and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-12-29 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modulation of the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition by the Midlatitude Flow Configuration Revisiting the Phasing Problem written by Jacopo Riboldi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Towards the Perfect Weather Warning written by Brian Golding and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-06-20 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making weather warnings more effective in saving lives, property, infrastructure and livelihoods, but the underlying theme of the book is partnership. The book represents the warning process as a pathway linking observations to weather forecasts to hazard forecasts to socio-economic impact forecasts to warning messages to the protective decision, via a set of five bridges that cross the divides between the relevant organisations and areas of expertise. Each bridge represents the communication, translation and interpretation of information as it passes from one area of expertise to another and ultimately to the decision maker, who may be a professional or a member of the public. The authors explore the partnerships upon which each bridge is built, assess the expertise and skills that each partner brings and the challenges of communication between them, and discuss the structures and methods of working that build effective partnerships. The book is ordered according to the “first mile” paradigm in which the decision maker comes first, and then the production chain through the warning and forecast to the observations is considered second. This approach emphasizes the importance of co-design and co-production throughout the warning process. The book is targeted at professionals and trainee professionals with a role in the warning chain, i.e. in weather services, emergency management agencies, disaster risk reduction agencies, risk management sections of infrastructure agencies. This is an open access book.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Climate Extremes written by S.-Y. Simon Wang and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events. Volume highlights include: Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events
