Download or read book The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest written by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. The findings are threefold. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. This is driven by sharp contractions in manufacturing and services (sectoral dimension), and consumption (demand dimension). Second, unrest lowers confidence and raises uncertainty; however, its adverse effect on GDP can be mitigated by strong institutions and by a country’s policy space. Third, an unrest “event”, which is captured by a large change in the unrest index, is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event. Impacts differ by type of event: episodes motivated by socio-economic reasons result in sharper GDP contractions compared to those associated with politics/elections, and events triggered by a combination of both factors lead to sharpest contractions. Results are not driven by countries with adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional unrest.
Download or read book The Economic Consequences of Social Unrest Evidence from Initial Public Offerings written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-10 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior research attributes negative stock market performance following episodes of social unrest to elevated uncertainty. However, social unrest does not solely increase uncertainty, but separately acts to decrease investor sentiment. To determine which effect dominates, we study initial public offering (IPO) underpricing, which responds differently to changes to uncertainty and investor sentiment. Consistent with the notion that social unrest dampens investor sentiment, we find robust evidence that IPO first-day returns are lower during times of greater social unrest. Limits to arbitrage intensify the negative relation between social unrest and underpricing. Notably, strong institutional frameworks mitigate the impact of social unrest on underpricing, suggesting that quality institutions weaken the link between investor sentiment and returns.
Download or read book Pricing Protest The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new daily index of social unrest, we provide systematic evidence on the negative impact of social unrest on stock market performance. An average social unrest episode in an typical country causes a 1.4 percentage point drop in cumulative abnormal returns over a two-week event window. This drop is more pronounced for events that last longer and for events that happen in emerging markets. Stronger institutions, particularly better governance and more democratic systems, mitigate the adverse impact of social unrest on stock market returns.
Download or read book A Vicious Cycle How Pandemics Lead to Economic Despair and Social Unrest written by Tahsin Saadi Sedik and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-16 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we analyze the dynamics among past major pandemics, economic growth, inequality, and social unrest. We provide evidence that past major pandemics, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to a significant increase in social unrest by reducing output and increasing inequality. We also find that higher social unrest, in turn, is associated with lower ourput and higher inequality, pointing to a vicious cycle. Our results suggest that without policy measures, the COVID-19 pandemic will likely increase inequality, trigger social unrest, and lower future output in the years to come.
Download or read book How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth written by Mr.Ari Aisen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.
Download or read book The Global Social Crisis written by United Nations and published by UN. This book was released on 2011 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During 2008-2009, the world experienced its worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The crisis followed the effects of the food and fuel price hikes in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, global output contracted by 2 per cent. This 2011 Report on the World Social Situation reviews the ongoing adverse social consequences of these crises after an overview of its causes and transmission.
Download or read book The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output written by Mr.Lorenzo E. Bernal-Verdugo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-23 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance. The results are robust to different checks and estimation strategies.
Download or read book Contention in Times of Crisis written by Hanspeter Kriesi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-13 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Documents the waves of protest that spread across Europe in the wake of the Great Recession.
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-15 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.
Download or read book Links Between Growth Inequality and Poverty A Survey written by Ms. Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is there a tradeoff between raising growth and reducing inequality and poverty? This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the complex links between growth, inequality, and poverty, with causation going in both directions. The evidence suggests that growth can be effective in reducing poverty, but its impact on inequality is ambiguous and depends on the underlying sources of growth. The impact of poverty and inequality on growth is likewise ambiguous, as several channels mediate the relationship. But most plausible mechanisms suggest that poverty and inequality reduce growth, at least in the long run. Policies play a role in shaping these relationships and those designed to improve equality of opportunity can simultaneously improve inclusiveness and growth.
Download or read book Climate and Social Stress written by Committee on Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-28 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book The Fourth Industrial Revolution written by Klaus Schwab and published by Currency. This book was released on 2017-01-03 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World-renowned economist Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, explains that we have an opportunity to shape the fourth industrial revolution, which will fundamentally alter how we live and work. Schwab argues that this revolution is different in scale, scope and complexity from any that have come before. Characterized by a range of new technologies that are fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, the developments are affecting all disciplines, economies, industries and governments, and even challenging ideas about what it means to be human. Artificial intelligence is already all around us, from supercomputers, drones and virtual assistants to 3D printing, DNA sequencing, smart thermostats, wearable sensors and microchips smaller than a grain of sand. But this is just the beginning: nanomaterials 200 times stronger than steel and a million times thinner than a strand of hair and the first transplant of a 3D printed liver are already in development. Imagine “smart factories” in which global systems of manufacturing are coordinated virtually, or implantable mobile phones made of biosynthetic materials. The fourth industrial revolution, says Schwab, is more significant, and its ramifications more profound, than in any prior period of human history. He outlines the key technologies driving this revolution and discusses the major impacts expected on government, business, civil society and individuals. Schwab also offers bold ideas on how to harness these changes and shape a better future—one in which technology empowers people rather than replaces them; progress serves society rather than disrupts it; and in which innovators respect moral and ethical boundaries rather than cross them. We all have the opportunity to contribute to developing new frameworks that advance progress.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict written by Patcharaporn Leepipatpiboon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-17 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Shocks and Conflict
Download or read book Nepal s Investment Climate written by Gabi G. Afram and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-03-27 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2006 and Constituent Assembly elections in 2008 have paved the way for political and economic reform in Nepal. Indeed, the 2009 Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) shows that Nepal's private sector is starting to reap some dividend from the cessation of armed conflict in terms of employment generation, rebounding tourism, increased tax collection, as well as less complex business regulations and procedures to obtain permits. However, Nepal's private sector (already plagued with various market failures) continues to suffer from the consequences of a decade of armed conflict and civil unrest. Poor infrastructure, particularly for transportation and energy, inadequate labor skills and continuous labor unrest, as well as inefficient and unstable credit markets, exacerbate the damage that continued political instability has had on the investment climate. Together political instability and poor infrastructure pose the two greatest challenges to Nepal's investment climate and growth in the private sector. The effects of these challenges on business confidence and economic performance are visible and costly: productions costs are high, business operations and trade are often disrupted, and competitiveness is declining. These structural problems cause low levels of savings and investment resulting in low job creation, which lead millions of Nepalis to seek temporary employment abroad; resulting in remittance flows that are mainly channeled to consumption and asset bubbles. This inflates prices and increases costs to the productive job-creating sector, which loses competitiveness and export markets, prolonging the cycle of mediocre and jobless growth at home. In order for Nepal to kick-start private sector-led growth in Nepal, it has to leverage its potential particularly through strengthening trade with China and India, developing its hydropower resources, and adopting policies to target growth in key sectors such as tourism. Improving Nepal's investment climate and strengthening the private sector will require government initiative to solve many challenges as well as public-private dialogue and partnerships to tackle larger challenges to be addressed over the medium and long-term. The Nepal Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) assesses dimensions of the investment climate that shape the opportunities for investments, employment and growth of private firms and provides recommendations to support private sector development. The Nepal ICA is based on three main surveys: an Enterprise Survey, an Employee Survey, and a Survey of Informal Enterprises. The surveys capture perceptions of the main obstacles for enterprises and workers in key sectors of the economy such as services and manufacturing and provide in-depth data and analysis on issues such as employment, policies and regulations, regional trade, and performance. An advantage of the enterprise surveys is that similar surveys have been conducted in many other countries. This allows comparisons of data on the investment climate with countries in the region and similar countries from other regions. The findings and recommendations of this Nepal ICA will be of interest to the Nepalese government and policy makers, development partners, Nepalese business associations, and researchers on private sector development and investment climate issues in Nepal and the South Asia region.
Download or read book Reported Social Unrest Index August 2023 Update written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-18 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is the second update of the Reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), outlining developments in global social unrest since March 2022. It shows that the fraction of countries experiencing major social unrest events has been stable. Reasons for social unrest can be broadly categorized as stemming from sdebate over constitutional issues, protests connected to specific policies, and other generalized disorder.
