Download or read book The Impact of Air sea Coupling on Tropical Intraseasonal Variability Simulation and Predictability written by Kathleen V. Pegion and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A coupled interactive ensemble technique is also applied to the CFS to determine the relative importance of internal atmospheric dynamics and coupled air-sea feedbacks in the interannual and intraseasonal variability in the CFS. A 40-year interactive ensemble simulation has been performed with the CFS. By comparing this simulation to the standard coupled simulation and the uncoupled simulation, we estimate the importance of internal atmospheric dynamics to the interannual and intraseasonal variability in the CFS.
Download or read book The Impact of Air sea Interactions on the Simulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability written by Kathy Pegion and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere Ocean Climate System written by William K.-M. Lau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 642 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improving the reliability of long-range forecasts of natural disasters, such as severe weather, droughts and floods, in North America, South America, Africa and the Asian/Australasian monsoon regions is of vital importance to the livelihood of millions of people who are affected by these events. In recent years the significance of major short-term climatic variability, and events such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation in the Pacific, with its worldwide effect on rainfall patterns, has been all to clearly demonstrated. Understanding and predicting the intra-seasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projects through climate models. In the second edition of this classic book on the subject, the authors have updated the original chapters, where appropriate, and added a new chapter that includes short subjects representing substantial new development in ISV research since the publication of the first edition.
Download or read book Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere Ocean Climate System written by William K.-M. Lau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-10 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive review of intra-seasonal variability (ISV); the contents are balanced between observation, theory and modeling. Starting with an overview of ISV and historical observations, the book addresses the coupling between ocean and atmosphere, and the worldwide role of ISV in monsoon variability. Also considered are the connections between oscillations like the Madden, Julian and El Nino/Southern and short-term climate.
Download or read book The Impact of Air sea Interactions on the Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation written by Kathy Pegion and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Internal Atmospheric Dynamics and Air sea Interactions in the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation written by Kathy Pegion and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Tropical and Extratropical Air Sea Interactions written by Swadhin Kumar Behera and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-11-18 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical and Extratropical Air-Sea Interactions: Modes of Climate Variations provides a thorough introduction to global atmospheric and oceanic processes, as well as tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude ocean-atmosphere interactions. Written by leading experts in the field, each chapter is dedicated to a specific topic of air-sea interactions (such as ENSO, IOD, Atlantic Nino, ENSO Modoki, and newly discovered coastal Niños/Niñas) and their teleconnections. As the first book to cover all topics of tropical and extra-tropical air-sea interactions and new modes of climate variations, this book is an excellent resource for researchers and students of ocean, atmospheric and climate sciences. Presents case studies on the ocean-atmosphere phenomena, including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole and different Nino/Nina phenomena Provides a clear description of air-sea relationships across the world’s ocean with an analysis of air-sea relations in different time scales and a focus on climate change Includes prospects for air-sea interaction research, thus benefiting young researchers and students
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Coupled Air sea land Interactions written by Ajda Savarin and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of tropical intraseasonal variability affecting the global weather and climate. The MJO is characterized by large-scale organized convection and its associated circulation that develops over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) and propagates into the West Pacific Ocean (WP) across the Maritime Continent (MC). The MJO has direct impacts on extreme rainfall and flooding over the MC, Southeast Asia and north Australia and tropical cyclones over the IO. The MJO’s downstream influences include tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, heat waves, and episodes of drought and flooding. Though the MJO has been the subject of many observational and modeling studies, it remains a challenging phenomenon for both theoretical understanding and accurate prediction in global weather and climate models. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to better understand the physical processes affecting the eastward propagation of the MJO from the IO to the WP and improve MJO modeling and prediction. In contrast to many existing MJO studies, we use a novel approach of identifying and tracking MJO events through their large-scale precipitation. Identifying individual MJO events as a physical phenomenon enables us to study the MJO and its in- teraction with the atmosphere, ocean, and land in its environment. We begin by using high- resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations and satellite- and field campaignobservations to study the physical processes that impact the MJO’s eastward propagation over the IO (Chapters 2 and 3). We follow up by conducting coupled model sensitivity experiments to better understand the MC barrier effects on the MJO (Chapter 4). Finally, we use 20 years of satellite-derived precipitation observations to investigate the seasonal and interannual variability of the MJO eastward propagation and its zonal and meridional variability (Chapter 5). Our findings confirm that the eastward propagation of MJO convection/precipitation is affected by how it interacts with its local ocean and land environments, and is modulated by seasonal and interannual variability. We identify some critical pathways that can help improve MJO modeling and prediction through a better representation of:Chapter 2: The multi-scale convective structure of the MJO. Chapter 3: Air-sea interaction of the MJO and its effect on the upper ocean. Chapter 4: Air-sea-land interactions over the MC. We find that:• Cloud-permitting resolution is better able to represent the various scales on which pre- cipitation occurs within the MJO (convective, mesoscale, and large-scale organization), and how convection interacts with the marine boundary layer. • Strong surface winds and intense precipitation associated with the MJO induce sea surface temperature and upper ocean cooling. Reduced air-sea fluxes create an envi- ronment unfavorable for sustaining intense precipitation, contributing to the MJO’s eastward propagation. • Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) forming over islands suppress convection over surrounding waters, over which the MJO prefers to propagate through the region. The land-based MCSs grow larger and more intense when MC topography is flattened, which enhances the MC barrier effect. We also show that on a broader scale, MJO convection/precipitation and eastward prop- agation are modulated by modes of seasonal and interannual variability (Chapter 5). The seasonal cycle significantly affects both the zonal and meridional structure of the MJO, including its initiation, termination, and eastward propagation. On longer time scales, cli- mate variability associated with sea surface temperature patterns over the Indian and Pacific oceans (ENSO, Indian ocean dipole) can shift low-level zonal wind convergence regions to- ward or away from the MC. Low-level zonal wind convergence can provide background ascent that amplifies MJO activity, and can strongly affect the zonal variability of the MJO. Unlike the direct link between SST variability and the MJO, upper-tropospheric zonal wind vari- ability associated with the QBO shows a strong seasonal dependence and generally much weaker control over MJO propagation. The strength of the MC barrier on MJO propagation also shows seasonal and interannual variability and is linked to a combination of the back- ground state and the location of MJO convection. The MC barrier effect is weakest during the peak monsoon seasons (Dec-Mar and June-Aug) and during La Niña months, and it is strongest during the monsoon transition seasons (Apr-Jun and Sep-Nov) and ENSO-neutral conditions.
Download or read book Ocean Circulation and Climate written by Ben P. Kirtman and published by Elsevier Inc. Chapters. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This chapter summarizes the scientific basis for and the current status of seasonal-to-interannual prediction with particular emphasis on the role of the tropical oceans. The first part of the chapter focuses on oceanic sources of predictability in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Seasonal-to-interannual predictability issues in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are also discussed. Mechanisms that limit predictability, particularly for ENSO, are highlighted. The second part of the chapter describes the forecast quality and procedures in practice today. Finally, the concluding remarks identify some outstanding challenges.
Download or read book Coupled Ocean atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Atlantic in the Absence of an Annual Cycle written by Susan Carr Bates and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Impact of Air sea Coupling on Simulating SST Variability in the California Current System written by Daniel Burton Walton and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here we show that air-sea coupling significantly impacts the simulation of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the California Current System (CCS). Previous work has shown important differences between coupled and uncoupled models in simulating coastal SST, but only using empirical coupling or idealized scenarios. We compare the output of the UCLA Mesoscale Coupled Model to the output of a similar but uncoupled model over the CCS. These high resolution, realistic regional models have identical coastlines, bathymetry, and topography. They are forced at the boundaries by reanalysis data over the historical period 1981-1990. This model setup allows us to evaluate how including air-sea coupling impacts the accuracy of our simulation by comparing our model output to buoy observations. Both the spatial patterns and the amount of variability are more realistic in the coupled model, which is likely due to improved simulation of internal variability.
Download or read book Interacting Climates of Ocean Basins written by Carlos R. Mechoso and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-26 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive review of interactions between the climates of different ocean basins and their key contributions to global climate variability and change. Providing essential theory and discussing outstanding examples as well as impacts on monsoons, it a useful resource for graduate students and researchers in the atmospheric and ocean sciences.
Download or read book Monsoon Dynamics written by James Lighthill and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1981-03-19 with total page 768 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents a survey of our state of knowledge of the physical and dynamical processes involved in the Asian monsoon. Although traditionally the main emphasis has been on the study of the atmospheric component, it has long been known that the oceans play a vitally important part in determining the occurrence of this spectacular seasonal event. A scientific study of this phenomenon involves a detailed investigation of the dynamical processes which occur in both the atmosphere and the ocean, on timescales on up to at least a year and on spatial scales from a few hundred kilometres or so up to that of the global atmospheric and oceanic circulations. The editors present a coherent survey of each of the meteorological, oceanographic and hydrological aspects and of their implications for weather forecasting and flood prediction. Monsoon Dynamics is a timely survey of a dramatic meteorological phenomenon which will interest meteorologists, climatologists and geophysicists.
Download or read book Interactive Coupled Ensemble written by Ben P. Kirtman and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
