Download or read book The Illusion of Risk Control written by Gilles Motet and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-01 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book explores the implications of acknowledging uncertainty and black swans for regulation of high-hazard technologies, for stakeholder acceptability of potentially hazardous activities and for risk governance. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which combines the likelihood of an event and the severity of its consequences, is poorly suited to situations where uncertainty and ambiguity are prominent features of the risk landscape. The new definition of risk used by ISO, “the effect of uncertainty on [achievement of] one’s objectives”, recognizes this paradigm change. What lessons can we draw from the management of fire hazards in Edo-era Japan? Are there situations in which increasing uncertainty allows more effective safety management? How should society address the risk of potentially planet-destroying scientific experiments? This book presents insights from leading scholars in different disciplines to challenge current risk governance and safety management practice.

Download or read book The Illusion of Risk Control written by Gilles Motet and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the implications of acknowledging uncertainty and black swans for regulation of high-hazard technologies, for stakeholder acceptability of potentially hazardous activities and for risk governance. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which combines the likelihood of an event and the severity of its consequences, is poorly suited to situations where uncertainty and ambiguity are prominent features of the risk landscape. The new definition of risk used by ISO, "the effect of uncertainty on [achievement of] one's objectives", recognizes this paradigm change. What lessons can we draw from the management of fire hazards in Edo-era Japan? Are there situations in which increasing uncertainty allows more effective safety management? How should society address the risk of potentially planet-destroying scientific experiments?This book presents insights from leading scholars in different disciplines to challenge current risk governance and safety management practice. This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.

Download or read book The Illusion of Control written by Jon Danielsson and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2022 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A challenge to the conventional wisdom surrounding financial risk, providing insight into why easy solutions to control the financial system are doomed to fail. Finance brings prosperity and danger. We use measurements of risk to try and control the dangers of investments while maximizing our growth. Current strategies rely on mathematical techniques and historical data to predict future risk, but ignore the human component, failing to take into account the nature of risk inherent in the system. Jón Daníelsson argues that critical risk is generated from within, through the interactions of individuals and perpetuated by their beliefs, objectives, abilities, and prejudices. He asserts that the widespread belief that risk originates outside the financial system frustrates our ability to measure and manage it, and the likely consequences of new regulations will help alleviate small-scale risks but, perversely, encourage excessive risk taking. Daníelsson uses lessons from past and recent crises to show that diversity is the best way to safeguard our financial system.

Download or read book Ending the Management Illusion How to Drive Business Results Using the Principles of Behavioral Finance written by Hersh Shefrin and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The bestselling author of Beyond Greed and Fear puts behavioral concepts into corporate practice Psychologically smart companies manage both the pluses and minuses of human psychology through well-structured systems and processes. In Ending the Management Illusion, behavioral finance pioneer Hersh Shefrin addresses the biases that can take you or your organization off course and shows how to run psychologically smart businesses-specifically as it affects your bottom line. Shefrin explores the psychological barriers you experience, and delivers concrete debiasing techniques for breaking through these barriers. This allows you to integrate your processes for accounting, planning, incentives, and information sharing-the main elements for optimizing corporate value.

Download or read book The Illusion of Certainty written by Erik Rifkin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-09-23 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an understanding and appreciation of the risk assessment process and the ability to objectively interpret health risk values. Included is an explanation of the uncertainty inherent in the assessment of risks as well as an explanation of how the communication and characterization of risks can dramatically alter the perception of those risks. Case studies illustrate the strengths and limitations of characterizing certain risks. Using the accepted risk assessment paradigm proposed by the National Research Council, these case studies illustrate which risk values have merit and why other assessments fail to meet basic criteria.

Download or read book Command and Control written by Eric Schlosser and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2013-09-17 with total page 656 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oscar-shortlisted documentary Command and Control, directed by Robert Kenner, finds its origins in Eric Schlosser's book and continues to explore the little-known history of the management and safety concerns of America's nuclear aresenal. “Deeply reported, deeply frightening . . . a techno-thriller of the first order.” —Los Angeles Times “A devastatingly lucid and detailed new history of nuclear weapons in the U.S. . . . fascinating.” —Lev Grossman, TIME Magazine A myth-shattering exposé of America’s nuclear weapons Famed investigative journalist Eric Schlosser digs deep to uncover secrets about the management of America’s nuclear arsenal. A groundbreaking account of accidents, near misses, extraordinary heroism, and technological breakthroughs, Command and Control explores the dilemma that has existed since the dawn of the nuclear age: How do you deploy weapons of mass destruction without being destroyed by them? That question has never been resolved—and Schlosser reveals how the combination of human fallibility and technological complexity still poses a grave risk to mankind. While the harms of global warming increasingly dominate the news, the equally dangerous yet more immediate threat of nuclear weapons has been largely forgotten. Written with the vibrancy of a first-rate thriller, Command and Control interweaves the minute-by-minute story of an accident at a nuclear missile silo in rural Arkansas with a historical narrative that spans more than fifty years. It depicts the urgent effort by American scientists, policy makers, and military officers to ensure that nuclear weapons can’t be stolen, sabotaged, used without permission, or detonated inadvertently. Schlosser also looks at the Cold War from a new perspective, offering history from the ground up, telling the stories of bomber pilots, missile commanders, maintenance crews, and other ordinary servicemen who risked their lives to avert a nuclear holocaust. At the heart of the book lies the struggle, amid the rolling hills and small farms of Damascus, Arkansas, to prevent the explosion of a ballistic missile carrying the most powerful nuclear warhead ever built by the United States. Drawing on recently declassified documents and interviews with people who designed and routinely handled nuclear weapons, Command and Control takes readers into a terrifying but fascinating world that, until now, has been largely hidden from view. Through the details of a single accident, Schlosser illustrates how an unlikely event can become unavoidable, how small risks can have terrible consequences, and how the most brilliant minds in the nation can only provide us with an illusion of control. Audacious, gripping, and unforgettable, Command and Control is a tour de force of investigative journalism, an eye-opening look at the dangers of America’s nuclear age.

Download or read book The Illusion of Control written by Jon Danielsson and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2022-06-28 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A challenge to the conventional wisdom surrounding financial risk, providing insight into why easy solutions to control the financial system are doomed to fail Finance plays a key role in the prosperity of the modern world—but it also brings grave dangers. We seek to manage those threats with a vast array of sophisticated mathematical tools and techniques of financial risk management. Too often, though, we fail to address the greatest risk—the peril posed by our own behavior. Jón Daníelsson argues that critical risk is generated from within, through the interactions of individuals and perpetuated by their beliefs, objectives, abilities, and prejudices. He asserts that the widespread belief that risk originates outside the financial system frustrates our ability to measure and manage it, and the likely consequences of new regulations will help alleviate small-scale risks but, perversely, encourage excessive risk taking. Daníelsson uses lessons from past and recent crises to show that diversity is the best way to safeguard our financial system.

Download or read book Behavioral Risk Management written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The psychological dimension of managing risk is of crucial importance, and its study has led to the identification of specific do's and don'ts. Those with an understanding of the psychology underlying risk and the skills to recognize its manifestation in practice, have the opportunity to develop frameworks that embody the do's and don'ts, thereby producing sound judgments and good decisions. Those lacking the understanding and the skills are destined to be more hit and miss in their approach to risk management, doing the don'ts and not doing the do's. Virtually every major risk management catastrophe in the last fifteen years has psychological pitfalls at its root. The list of catastrophes includes the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and subsequent global financial crisis, the 2010 explosion at BP's Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico and the 2011 nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant. A critical lesson from psychological studies for those involved in risk management is that people's judgments and decisions about risk vary with type of circumstance. In Behavioral Risk Management readers will learn that there are specific actions that organizations can undertake to incorporate understanding, recognition, and behavioral interventions into the practice of risk management. There are many examples throughout the book that illustrate doing the don'ts. The chapters in the first part of the book introduce the main ideas, and the chapters in the latter part provide insight into how to apply those ideas to the practical world in which risk managers operate.

Download or read book Cybersecurity Risk Management written by Kurt J. Engemann and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2024-08-19 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cybersecurity refers to the set of technologies, practices, and strategies designed to protect computer systems, networks, devices, and data from unauthorized access, theft, damage, disruption, or misuse. It involves identifying and assessing potential threats and vulnerabilities, and implementing controls and countermeasures to prevent or mitigate them. Some major risks of a successful cyberattack include: data breaches, ransomware attacks, disruption of services, damage to infrastructure, espionage and sabotage. Cybersecurity Risk Management: Enhancing Leadership and Expertise explores this highly dynamic field that is situated in a fascinating juxtaposition with an extremely advanced and capable set of cyber threat adversaries, rapidly evolving technologies, global digitalization, complex international rules and regulations, geo-politics, and even warfare. A successful cyber-attack can have significant consequences for individuals, organizations, and society as a whole. With comprehensive chapters in the first part of the book covering fundamental concepts and approaches, and those in the second illustrating applications of these fundamental principles, Cybersecurity Risk Management: Enhancing Leadership and Expertise makes an important contribution to the literature in the field by proposing an appropriate basis for managing cybersecurity risk to overcome practical challenges.

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Download or read book Organized Uncertainty written by Michael Power and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2007-05-24 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the mid-1990s risk management has undergone a dramatic expansion in its reach and significance, being transformed from an aspect of management control to become a benchmark of good governance for banks, hospitals, schools, charities and many other organizations. Numerous standards for risk management practice have been produced by a variety of transnational organizations. While these many designs and blueprints are accompanied by ideals of enterprise, value production, and good governance, it is argued that the rise of risk management has also coincided with an intensification of auditing and control processes. The legalization and bureacratization of organizational life has increased because risk management has created new demands for proof and evidence of action. In turn, these demands have generated new risks to reputation. In short, this important book traces the rise of the managerial concept of risk and the different logics and values which underpin it, showing that it has much less to do with real dangers and opportunities than might be thought, and more to do with organizational accountability and legitimacy.

Download or read book Risk Intelligence written by Dylan Evans and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We must make judgments all the time when we can't be certain of the risks. Should we have that elective surgery? Trust the advice of our financial adviser? Take that new job we've been offered? How worried should we be about terrorist attacks? In this lively and groundbreaking book, pioneering researcher Dylan Evans introduces a newly discovered kind of intelligence for assessing risks, demonstrating how vital this risk intelligence is in our lives and how we can all raise our RQs in order to make better decisions every day. Evans has spearheaded the study of risk intelligence, devising a simple test to measure a person's RQ which when posted online sparked a storm of interest and was taken by tens of thousands of people. His research has revealed that risk intelligence is quite different from IQ, and that the vast majority of us have quite poor risk intelligence. However, he did find some people who have very high RQs. So what makes the difference? Introducing a wealth of fascinating research findings, Evans identifies a key set of common errors in our thinking that most of us fall victim to and that undermine our risk intelligence, such as "ambiguity aversion," overconfidence in our knowledge, the fallacy of mind reading, and our attraction to worst-case scenarios. We are also regularly led astray by the ways in which information is provided to us. Citing a wide range of real-life examples--from the brilliant risk assessment skills of horse race handicappers to the tragically flawed evaluations of risk that caused the financial crisis--Evans illustrates that sometimes our most trusted advisors, including the experts and analysts at the top of their disciplines, don't always give us the best advice when it comes to risk evaluation. Presenting his revolutionary test that allows readers to evaluate their own RQs, Evans introduces a number of simple techniques we can use to build our risk assessment powers and reports on the striking results he's seen in training people to develop their RQs. Both highly engaging and truly mind-changing, Risk Intelligence will fascinate all of those who are interested in how we can improve our thinking in order to enhance our lives.

Download or read book Risk Communication for the Future written by Mathilde Bourrier and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conventional approach to risk communication, based on a centralized and controlled model, has led to blatant failures in the management of recent safety related events. In parallel, several cases have proved that actors not thought of as risk governance or safety management contributors may play a positive role regarding safety. Building on these two observations and bridging the gap between risk communication and safety practices leads to a new, more societal perspective on risk communication, that allows for smart risk governance and safety management. This book is Open Access under a CC-BY licence.

Download or read book Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management written by Vlasta Molak and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1996-11-26 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bridges the gap between the many different disciplines used in applications of risk analysis to real world problems. Contributed by some of the world's leading experts, it creates a common information base and language for all risk analysis practitioners, risk managers, and decision makers. Valuable as both a reference for practitioners and a comprehensive textbook for students, Fundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Management is a unique contribution to the field. Its broad coverage ranges from basic theory of risk analysis to practical applications, risk perception, legal and political issues, and risk management.

Download or read book CIMA P3 Risk Management written by BPP Learning Media and published by BPP Learning Media. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 722 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: BPP Learning Media provides the widest range of study materials of any CIMA publisher. Our comprehensive printed materials highlight the areas to focus on for your exams, and our e-Learning products complement the syllabus to improve your understanding.

Download or read book Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-03-31 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it’s about next year’s stock market or a person’s risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there’s hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

Download or read book Rethinking Risk Management written by Rick Nason and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2017-02-28 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk management has become a key factor of successful organizations. Despite risk management's importance, outdated and inappropriate ideas about how to manage risk dominate. This book challenges existing paradigms of risk management and provides readers with new concepts and tools for the current dynamic risk management environment. The framework for the book is a series of questions that allows for an interesting and thought-provoking look at current ideas and forward-looking concepts. This book, intended for senior managers, directors, risk managers, students of risk management, and all others who need to be concerned about risk management and strategy, provides a solid base for not only understanding current best practice in risk management, but also the conceptual tools for exploiting emerging risk management technologies, metrics, regulations, and ideas. The central thesis is that risk management is a value-adding activity that all types of organizations, public, private as well as not-for-profit, can use for competitive advantage and maximum effectiveness.