Download or read book Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth written by James Forder and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-10-09 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reconsiders the role of the Phillips curve in macroeconomic analysis in the first twenty years following the famous work by A. W. H. Phillips, after whom it is named. It argues that the story conventionally told is entirely misleading. In that story, Phillips made a great breakthrough but his work led to a view that inflationary policy could be used systematically to maintain low unemployment, and that it was only after the work of Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps about a decade after Phillips' that this view was rejected. On the contrary, a detailed analysis of the literature of the times shows that the idea of a negative relation between wage change and unemployment - supposedly Phillips' discovery - was commonplace in the 1950s, as were the arguments attributed to Friedman and Phelps by the conventional story. And, perhaps most importantly, there is scarcely any sign of the idea of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff promoting inflationary policy, either in the theoretical literature or in actual policymaking. The book demonstrates and identifies a number of main strands of the actual thinking of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s on the question of the determination of inflation and its relation to other variables. The result is not only a rejection of the Phillips curve story as it has been told, and a reassessment of the understanding of the economists of those years of macroeconomics, but also the construction of an alternative, and historically more authentic account, of the economic theory of those times. A notable outcome is that the economic theory of the time was not nearly so naïve as it has been portrayed.

Download or read book A W H Phillips Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective written by Alban William Housego Phillips and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-08-03 with total page 535 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Virtually all of contemporary macroeconomics is underpinned by a Phillips curve of one variety or another; yet most of this literature displays a curious neglect of the theoretical dynamic stabilisation perspective provided by A. W. H. Phillips. This 2000 volume collected for the first time the major work of one of the great economists, integrating Phillips's empirical work with his theoretical contribution. In addition to twelve substantive chapters, twenty-nine economists including Lawrence Klein, James Meade, Thomas Sargent, Peter Phillips, David Hendry, William Baumol, Richard Lipsey and Geoffrey Harcourt highlight and interpret Phillips's ongoing influence. This volume also contains six of Phillips's previously unpublished essays, four of which were thought to have been lost. The fifth such essay (Phillips's second empirical Phillips curve) was previously an informal working paper of which few copies circulated, and the sixth essay is a forerunner of the Lucas Critique written by Phillips shortly before his death.

Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Download or read book Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy written by Jeff Fuhrer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-09-11 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

Download or read book New Tools of Economic Dynamics written by Jacek Leskow and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-06 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New Tools of Economic Dynamics gives an introduction and overview of recently developed methods and tools, most of them developed outside economics, to deal with the qualitative analysis of economic dynamics. It reports the results of a three-year research project by a European and Latin American network on the intersection of economics with mathematical, statistical, and computational methods and techniques. Focusing upon the evolution and manifold structure of complex dynamic phenomena, the book reviews and shows applications of a variety of tools, such as symbolic and coded dynamics, interacting agents models, microsimulation in econometrics, large-scale system analysis, and dynamical systems theory. It shows the potential of a comprehensive analysis of growth, fluctuations, and structural change along the lines indicated by pioneers like Harrod, Haavelmo, Hicks, Goodwin, Morishima, and it highlights the explanatory power of the qualitative approach they initiated.

Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short Term Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.

Download or read book Unemployment Hysteresis and the Natural Rate Hypothesis written by Rod Cross and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1988 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Unemployment Inflation Tradeoff written by John Rutledge and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book A History of Macroeconomics from Keynes to Lucas and Beyond written by Michel De Vroey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book retraces the history of macroeconomics from Keynes's General Theory to the present. Central to it is the contrast between a Keynesian era and a Lucasian - or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) - era, each ruled by distinct methodological standards. In the Keynesian era, the book studies the following theories: Keynesian macroeconomics, monetarism, disequilibrium macro (Patinkin, Leijongufvud, and Clower) non-Walrasian equilibrium models, and first-generation new Keynesian models. Three stages are identified in the DSGE era: new classical macro (Lucas), RBC modelling, and second-generation new Keynesian modeling. The book also examines a few selected works aimed at presenting alternatives to Lucasian macro. While not eschewing analytical content, Michel De Vroey focuses on substantive assessments, and the models studied are presented in a pedagogical and vivid yet critical way.

Download or read book The Conquest of American Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Conquest of American Inflation, Thomas J. Sargent presents an analysis of the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after 1960. He examines two broad explanations for the behavior of inflation and unemployment in this period: the natural rate hypothesis joined to the Lucas critique and a more traditional econometric policy evaluation modified to include adaptive expectations and learning. His purpose is not only to determine which is the better account, but also to codify for the benefit of the next generation the economic forces that cause inflation. Providing an original methodological link between theoretical and policy economics, this book will engender much debate and become an indispensable text for academics, graduate students, and professional economists.

Download or read book Seven Schools of Macroeconomic Thought written by Edmund S. Phelps and published by Clarendon Press. This book was released on 1990-05-17 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an excellent survey of various macroeconomic topics which feature prominently in the research agenda and have inspired both theoretical and policy debate. The book presents an authoritative and comprehensive summary and original critique of modern macroeconomic approaches by a scholar whose own contribution to the field is considerable. In each of his seven chapters, the author reviews one school of economic thought. These are: the Keynesian school of macroeconomics; the monetarist school; the New Classical school; the New-Keynesian school; supply side macroeconomics, and `non-monetary' models of macroeconomics - the real business cycle theory and the `structuralist school' which views changes in unemployment as the outcome of shifts in the structural characteristics of the economy. The book is the text of the first series of Ryde Lectures, established by Lund University in Sweden.

Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History written by Randall E. Parker and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to introduce readers to the important macroeconomic events of the past two hundred years. It explains what went on and why during the most significant economic epochs of the nineteenth, twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and how where we are today fits in this historical timeline.

Download or read book General Theory Of Employment Interest And Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by Atlantic Publishers & Dist. This book was released on 2016-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning

Download or read book Artificial Intelligence in Economics and Finance Theories written by Tankiso Moloi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-05-07 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As Artificial Intelligence (AI) seizes all aspects of human life, there is a fundamental shift in the way in which humans are thinking of and doing things. Ordinarily, humans have relied on economics and finance theories to make sense of, and predict concepts such as comparative advantage, long run economic growth, lack or distortion of information and failures, role of labour as a factor of production and the decision making process for the purpose of allocating resources among other theories. Of interest though is that literature has not attempted to utilize these advances in technology in order to modernize economic and finance theories that are fundamental in the decision making process for the purpose of allocating scarce resources among other things. With the simulated intelligence in machines, which allows machines to act like humans and to some extent even anticipate events better than humans, thanks to their ability to handle massive data sets, this book will use artificial intelligence to explain what these economic and finance theories mean in the context of the agent wanting to make a decision. The main feature of finance and economic theories is that they try to eliminate the effects of uncertainties by attempting to bring the future to the present. The fundamentals of this statement is deeply rooted in risk and risk management. In behavioural sciences, economics as a discipline has always provided a well-established foundation for understanding uncertainties and what this means for decision making. Finance and economics have done this through different models which attempt to predict the future. On its part, risk management attempts to hedge or mitigate these uncertainties in order for “the planner” to reach the favourable outcome. This book focuses on how AI is to redefine certain important economic and financial theories that are specifically used for the purpose of eliminating uncertainties so as to allow agents to make informed decisions. In effect, certain aspects of finance and economic theories cannot be understood in their entirety without the incorporation of AI.

Download or read book A History of Econometrics written by Duo Qin and published by . This book was released on 2013-07-25 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written from the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission econometric perspective, this book provides an account of the advances in the field of econometrics since the 1970s.

Download or read book The Money Illusion written by Irving Fisher and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2014-03-27 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In economics, money illusion refers to the tendency of people to think of currency in nominal, rather than real, terms. In other words, the numerical/face value (nominal value) of money is mistaken for its purchasing power (real value). This is false, as modern fiat currencies have no inherent value and their real value is derived from their ability to be exchanged for goods and used for payment of taxes. The term was coined by John Maynard Keynes in the early twentieth century. Almost every one is subject to the "Money Illusion" in respect to his own country's currency. This seems to him to be stationary while the money of other countries seems to change. It may seem strange but it is true that we see the rise or fall of foreign money better than we see that of our own.-IRVING FISHER