Download or read book The Empirical Research of Asymmetry and Forecast Errors in the Implied Volatility Index written by Chi-Tai Lin and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predictive Ability of Asymmetric Volatility Models At Medium Term Horizons written by Turgut Kisinbay and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecasts are compared using three different evaluation tests. With data from an equity index and two foreign exchange returns, we show that asymmetric models provide statistically significant forecast improvements upon the GARCH model for two of the datasets and improve forecasts for all datasets by means of forecasts combinations. These results extend to about 10 days in the future, beyond which the forecasts are statistically inseparable from each other.
Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by John L. Knight and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2002 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting edge modeling and forecasting techniques. It then uses a technical survey to explain the different ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return.
Download or read book Unravelling the Asymmetric Volatility Puzzle written by Mihály Ormos and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in continuing trend and mean-reversion respectively. The empirical results support our theoretical explanation through an analysis of large price fluctuations in the S&P 500 and the resulting effects on implied and realized volatility. These results indicate that asymmetry (a negative relationship) between shocks and volatility in the subsequent period indeed exists. Moreover, contrary to previous research, our empirical tests also suggest that implied volatility is not simply an upward biased predictor of future deviation compensating for the variance of the volatility but rather, due to investors' systematic anchoring to losses and gains in their volatility forecasts, it is a co- integrated yet asymmetric over/under estimated financial instrument. We also provide results indicating that the medium-term implied volatility (measured by the VIX Index) is an unbiased though inefficient estimation of realized volatility, while in contrast, the short-term volatility (measured by the recently introduced VXST Index representing the 9-day implied volatility) is also unbiased and yet efficient.
Download or read book Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets written by Eugenie M.J.H. Hol and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.
Download or read book Computer Age Statistical Inference written by Bradley Efron and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-07-21 with total page 496 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and in influence. 'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computation in the 1950s. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. The book ends with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.
Download or read book Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options written by Thi Le and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the impact of high-frequency data in forecasting market volatility and options price. New technologies have created opportunities to obtain better, faster, and more efficient datasets to explore financial market phenomena at the most acceptable data levels. It provides reliable intraday data supporting financial investment decisions across different assets classes and instruments consisting of commodities, derivatives, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. This book emphasises four key areas, (1) estimating intraday implied volatility using ultra-high frequency (5-minutes frequency) currency options to capture traders' trading behaviour, (2) computing realised volatility based on 5-minute frequency currency price to obtain speculators' speculation attitude, (3) examining the ability of implied volatility to subsume market information through forecasting realised volatility and (4) evaluating the predictive power of implied volatility for pricing currency options. This is a must-read for academics and professionals who want to improve their skills and outcomes in trading options.
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Download or read book Stock Market Volatility written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-04-08 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel
Download or read book Financial Economics and Econometrics written by Nikiforos T. Laopodis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 787 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Economics and Econometrics provides an overview of the core topics in theoretical and empirical finance, with an emphasis on applications and interpreting results. Structured in five parts, the book covers financial data and univariate models; asset returns; interest rates, yields and spreads; volatility and correlation; and corporate finance and policy. Each chapter begins with a theory in financial economics, followed by econometric methodologies which have been used to explore the theory. Next, the chapter presents empirical evidence and discusses seminal papers on the topic. Boxes offer insights on how an idea can be applied to other disciplines such as management, marketing and medicine, showing the relevance of the material beyond finance. Readers are supported with plenty of worked examples and intuitive explanations throughout the book, while key takeaways, ‘test your knowledge’ and ‘test your intuition’ features at the end of each chapter also aid student learning. Digital supplements including PowerPoint slides, computer codes supplements, an Instructor’s Manual and Solutions Manual are available for instructors. This textbook is suitable for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses on financial economics, financial econometrics, empirical finance and related quantitative areas.
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Implied Volatility Functions written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.
Download or read book Handbook of Analytical Studies in Islamic Finance and Economics written by Zamir Iqbal and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2020-08-10 with total page 575 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook offers a unique and original collection of analytical studies in Islamic economics and finance, and constitutes a humble addition to the literature on new economic thinking and global finance. The growing risks stemming from higher debt, slower growth, and limited room for policy maneuver raise concerns about the ability and propensity of modern economies to find effective solutions to chronic problems. It is important to understand the structural roots of inherent imbalance, persistence-in-error patterns, policy and governance failures, as well as moral and ethical failures. Admittedly, finance and economics have their own failures, with abstract theory bearing little relation with the real economy, uncertainties and vicissitudes of economic life. Economic research has certainly become more empirical despite, or perhaps because of, the lack of guidance from theory. The analytics of Islamic economics and finance may not differ from standard frameworks, methods, and techniques used in conventional economics, but may offer new perspectives on the making of financial crises, nature of credit cycles, roots of financial system instability, and determinants of income disparities. The focus is placed on the logical coherence of Islamic economics and finance, properties of Islamic capital markets, workings of Islamic banking, pricing of Islamic financial instruments, and limits of debt financing, fiscal stimulus and conventional monetary policies, inter alia. Readers with investment, regulatory, and academic interests will find the body of analytical evidence to span many areas of economic inquiry, refuting thereby the false argument that given its religious tenets, Islamic economics is intrinsically narrative, descriptive and not amenable to testable implications. Thus, the handbook may contribute toward a redefinition of a dismal science in search for an elusive balance between rationality, ethics and morality, and toward a remodeling of economies based on risk sharing and prosperity for all humanity
Download or read book McMillan on Options written by Lawrence G. McMillan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Legendary trader Larry McMillan does it-again-offering his personal options strategies for consistently enhancing trading profits Larry McMillan's name is virtually synonymous with options. This "Trader's Hall of Fame" recipient first shared his personal options strategies and techniques in the original McMillan on Options. Now, in a revised and Second Edition, this indispensable guide to the world of options addresses a myriad of new techniques and methods needed for profiting consistently in today's fast-paced investment arena. This thoroughly new Second Edition features updates in almost every chapter as well as enhanced coverage of many new and increasingly popular products. It also offers McMillan's personal philosophy on options, and reveals many of his previously unpublished personal insights. Readers will soon discover why Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac says, "McMillan is an options guru par excellence."
Download or read book Beyond Beta written by Samuel Kotz and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical distributions are fundamental to Statistical Science and are a prime indispensable tool for its applications. This monograph is the first to examine an important but somewhat neglected field — univariate continuous distribution on a bounded domain, excluding the beta distribution. It provides an elementary but thorough discussion of “novel” contributions developed in recent years, such as the two-sided power, generalized trapezoidal and generalized Topp and Leone distributions, among others. It discusses a general framework for constructing two-sided distributions and some of its properties. It contains a comprehensive chapter on the triangular distribution as well as a chapter on earlier extensions not emphasized in existing literature. Special attention is given to estimation, in particular, non-standard maximum likelihood procedures. The applications are drawn mainly from the econometric and engineering domains.
