Download or read book The Effects of Investor Sentiment on Speculative Trading and Prices of Stock and Index Options written by Michael L. Lemmon and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find that the demand for stock option positions that increase exposure to the underlying is positively related to measures of investor sentiment and past market returns, while the demand for index options is invariant to these factors. These differences in trading patterns are reflected in differences in the composition of traders in the different types of options -- Options on stocks are actively traded by individual investors, while trades in index options are more often motivated by hedging demands of sophisticated investors. Consistent with a demand based view of option pricing, we find that sentiment is related to time-series variation in the slope of the implied volatility smile of stock options, but has little impact on the prices of index options. The pricing impact is more pronounced in options with a higher concentration of unsophisticated investors and in options with higher hedging costs. Our results provide new evidence factors not related to fundamentals affect price of securities actively traded by noise traders.
Download or read book Trading on Sentiment written by Richard L. Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Richard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychology and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to social media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privileged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.
Download or read book Investor Sentiments Rational Beliefs and Option Prices written by Panayiotis C. Andreou and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the impact of investor sentiment on the risk-neutral skewness of S&P 500 index options over the period 1990 to 2011. We decompose the aggregate investor sentiment into an economic fundamentals component that captures investors' rational updating of beliefs and an error in beliefs component that captures investors' expectations not associated with the economic conditions. Our findings reveal a tale of two periods: before June 1997 both the sentiment components affect risk-neutral skewness, while after June 1997 only the fundamentals component is able to explain risk-neutral skewness. Furthermore, the effect of the fundamentals is more pronounced in periods of worsened stock market conditions. By estimating different measures of the slope of the implied volatility smirk, we show that the slope of the calls' implied volatility smirk is driven by investors' expectations about a continuation of recent economic conditions, while the slope of the puts' implied volatility smirk is driven by investors' expectations about a reversal in the economy. Overall, our results highlight the importance of economic fundamentals for explaining the variations in option prices and the pricing kernel.
Download or read book The Asymmetric Effects of Investor Sentiment written by Chandler Lutz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use the returns on lottery-like stocks to construct a novel index for investor sentiment in the stock market. This new measure is closely related to previously developed sentiment indicators, but more accurately tracks speculative episodes over the sample period. Using our index, we find that the relationship between sentiment and returns is asymmetric: during bear markets, high sentiment predicts low future returns for the cross-section of speculative stocks and the market overall while the relationship during bull markets is weak and often insignificant. Thus, the results suggest that sophisticated investors only act as corrective force during certain time periods. We also show that our index predicts implied volatility, media pessimism, and mutual fund flows. Overall, our findings are consistent with both the theories and anecdotal accounts of investor sentiment in the stock market.
Download or read book Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices written by Samuel P. Fraiberger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news-sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. We also find evidence that news sentiment affects mainly foreign – rather than local – investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.
Download or read book Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading written by H. Nejat Seyhun and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2000-02-28 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to profit from information about insider trading. The term insider trading refers to the stock transactions of the officers, directors, and large shareholders of a firm. Many investors believe that corporate insiders, informed about their firms' prospects, buy and sell their own firm's stock at favorable times, reaping significant profits. Given the extra costs and risks of an active trading strategy, the key question for stock market investors is whether the publicly available insider-trading information can help them to outperform a simple passive index fund. Basing his insights on an exhaustive data set that captures information on all reported insider trading in all publicly held firms over the past twenty-one years—over one million transactions!—H. Nejat Seyhun shows how investors can use insider information to their advantage. He documents the magnitude and duration of the stock price movements following insider trading, determinants of insiders' profits, and the risks associated with imitating insider trading. He looks at the likely performance of individual firms and of the overall stock market, and compares the value of what one can learn from insider trading with commonly used measures of value such as price-earnings ratio, book-to-market ratio, and dividend yield.
Download or read book Market Volatility and Investor Confidence written by New York Stock Exchange. Market Volatility and Investor Confidence Panel and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Investor Sentiment written by Chui Shan Nicky Cheung and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investor sentiment has long been a popular subject of research. This thesis aims to investigate its impacts on stock prices in France, Germany and Switzerland which were rarely studied. Should investor sentiment be priced, stocks with higher sensitivity to investor sentiment should outperform their counterparts with lower sensitivity, for example. In gauging the investor sentiments, I gathered various market proxies and composed a sentiment index SENTIMENT for each country and estimated the sentiment beta called &u946_SENTIMENT with a four-factor regression model. The stocks are assigned to quintiles by ranking their respective &u946_SENTIMENT. My results provide evidence that in France and Switzerland, low &u946_SENTIMENT stocks outperform high &u946_SENTIMENT stocks while in Germany, excess returns increase with &u946_SENTIMENT but the trend reverses when &u946_SENTIMENT reaches the (historical) top range. On a side note, German investors are more sensitive to market sentiment than Swiss investors, with French investors being the least sensitive.
Download or read book The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment written by Christopher Polk and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study how stock market mispricing might influence individual firms' investment decisions. We find a positive relation between investment and a number of proxies for mispricing, controlling for investment opportunities and financial slack, suggesting that overpriced (underpriced) firms tend to overinvest (underinvest). Consistent with the predictions of our model, we find that investment is more sensitive to our mispricing proxies for firms with higher R & D intensity suggesting longer periods of information asymmetry and thus mispricing) or share turnover (suggesting that the firms' shareholders are short-term investors). We also find that firms with relatively high (low) investment subsequently have relatively low (high) stock returns, after controlling for investment opportunities and other characteristics linked to return predictability. These patterns are stronger for firms with higher R & D intensity or higher share turnover.
Download or read book Investor Sentiment and Option Prices written by Bing Han and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether investor sentiment about the stock market affects prices of the Samp;P 500 options. I find that the index option volatility smile is steeper (flatter) and the risk-neutralskewness of monthly index return is more (less) negative when market sentiment becomes more bearish (bullish). These significant relations are robust and become stronger when there are moreimpediments to arbitrage in index options. They can not be explained by rational perfect-market based option-pricing models. Changes in sentiment help explain time variation in the slope of index option smile and risk-neutral skewness beyond factors suggested by the current models.
Download or read book Inefficient Markets written by Andrei Shleifer and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2000-03-09 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.
Download or read book Investor Sentiment and the Commodity Basis written by Werner Schnell and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis contributes to the ongoing research about whether accusing speculators for irrational exuberance is really justified. In particular, I investigate the effect of investor sentiment on the commodity market. For this analysis I construct a sentiment index as the first principal component of option implied volatility and TED spread. The common criticism on this kind of analysis is that the sentiment index might not only contain irrational exaggerations but also changes in fundamental variables. To address this objection, on the one hand I orthogonalize the index on a number of macroeconomic variables, on the other hand I use the commodity basis as a dependent variable instead of the prices. The assumption is that change in fundamentals should have an effect on spot and futures prices likewise but sentiment asymmetrically affects only futures market. To my knowledge, I am the first one that conducts this kind of analyses. While I do not find any significant effect of the sentiment index on the commodity basis, I find a significant effect for returns. This suggests that the sentiment index, even after orthogonalization, is still contaminated with fundamental variables and consequently does not measure only pure irrational behavior. Even after controlling for variables proposed by the storage and expectation theory, the result stays insignificant. Moreover, I also do not find a significant effect of investor sentiment on open speculative positions and on the inventory holdings.
Download or read book Contrarian Investment Strategies written by David Dreman and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-01-10 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces important new findings in psychology to demonstrate why most investment strategies are flawed, outlining atypical strategies designed to prevent over- and under-valuations while crash-proofing a portfolio.
Download or read book Essays on the Impact of Investors Speculation and Disagreements on Security Prices and Trading Volume written by Siu Kai Choy and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Trading Mechanisms Speculative Behavior of Investors and the Volatility of Prices written by Hun Y. Park and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the volatility of spot prices (dealership market) with that of futures prices (auction market) to test the implications of different trading mechanisms for the volatility of prices. First, a natural estimator of the volatility is sued. Using the intraday data of the major Market Index and its futures prices, we show that the volatility of opening prices is higher than that of closing prices not only in the spot market but in the futures market, and that the intraday volatility patterns are U-shaped in both markets. Of particular interest is that futures prices do not appear to be as volatile as spot prices when the natural estimator of volatility is used, to the contrary of the conventional wisdom. We argue that the different volatility patterns during the day are not necessarily due to the different trading mechanisms, auction market versus dealership market. Instead, after developing a simple theoretical model of speculative prices, we show that at least part of the different volatility patterns during the day may be attributable to speculative behavior of investors based on heterogeneous information. In addition, we further investigate the volatilities of spot and futures prices using a temporal estimator of price volatility as an alternative to the natural estimator. Based on the temporal estimator, we cannot find any systematic pattern of volatilities during the day in both spot and futures markets, and that futures prices appear to be more volatile than spot prices in terms of how quickly the price moves beyond a given unit price level, but not in terms of how much the price changes during a given unit time interval. Some policy implications are also discussed.
Download or read book The Implications of Investor Behaviour to Financial Markets written by Lisa Desiree Majmin and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial markets are subject to sentiment from within and beyond their nation's borders. Fund flows either flood markets with liquidity, or drain them to the point of asset fire sales. This typically occurs in accordance with investors' beliefs and risk preferences and ultimately renders markets unstable. This thesis serves to establish the implications of investor behaviour to financial markets. Chapter 2 proposes macro sentiment as a leading indicator for financial instability within the Early Warning Framework of Borio & Lowe (2002). This signalling method identifies imbalances within the financial system. Key indicators include real equity and property prices, and private credit. Macro sentiment is then shown to display excess pessimism prior to systemic crises and therefore, is a relevant leading indicator. US institutional investor sentiment is measured through the demand for portfolio insurance in Chapter 3. Shefrin (1999) advocates index option markets as the manifestation of institutional investor sentiment. A decrease in index option skewness is associated with bearish sentiment. This chapter applies a non-parametric method to extract the risk-neutral distribution to gauge sentiment based on the 30-day probability of the underlying reaching the at-the-money futures level, and the third moment. These measures are examined in relation to the VIX, the put-call ratio, the slope of the implied volatility function and the Bakshi, Kapadia & Madan (2003) skew. Chapter 4 proposes a theory of sentiment propagation and examines the link between global and investor sentiment within the US. An extensive literature review of mutual fund flows and sentiment within the broad context of the macroeconomy affirms the use of cross-border fund flows as the channel through which sentiment propagates. The empirical section then establishes congruency between global sentiment, as measured by dedicated USA equity and bond fund flows of US and non-US domiciled investors and sentiment within the US.
Download or read book Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options written by H. Henry Cao and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the effects of differences of opinion on the dynamics of trading volume in stocks and options. We find that disagreements about the mean of the current- and next-period public information lead to trading in stocks in the current period but have no effect on options trading. Without options, we find that disagreements about the precision of all past and current public information affect trading in stocks in the current period. With options, only disagreements about the precisions of the next- and current-period information affect stocks and options trading in the current period. Our results suggest that options trading is concentrated around information events that are likely to cause disagreements among investors, whereas trading in stocks may be diffusive over many periods.
