Download or read book The Effects of Inflation on Economic Uncertainty Growth and Unemployment written by A. Steven Holland and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Download or read book Inflation Unemployment and Monetary Policy written by Robert M. Solow and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Edited and with an introduction by Benjamin M. Friedman The connection between price inflation and real economic activity has been a focus of macroeconomic research--and debate--for much of the past century. Although this connection is crucial to our understanding of what monetary policy can and cannot accomplish, opinions about its basic properties have swung widely over the years. Today, virtually everyone studying monetary policy acknowledges that, contrary to what many modern macroeconomic models suggest, central bank actions often affect both inflation and measures of real economic activity, such as output, unemployment, and incomes. But the nature and magnitude of these effects are not yet understood. In this volume, Robert M. Solow and John B. Taylor present their views on the dilemmas facing U.S. monetary policymakers. The discussants are Benjamin M. Friedman, James K. Galbraith, N. Gregory Mankiw, and William Poole. The aim of this lively exchange of views is to make both an intellectual contribution to macroeconmics and a practical contribution to the solution of a public policy question of central importance.
Download or read book Do Inflation and Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainties Influence Unemployment written by Victor Ferreira Moutinho and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research explores the impact of Inflation rate and the impact of categorical economic policy uncertainty on Unemployment in United States, during the period between January 1990 and May 2022. Thus, according results showed by ARDL estimation, in long run Fiscal Policy and Trade Policy provoke an increase on Unemployment rate, respectively; while Consumer Price index has a statistical and significant negative effect on the Unemployment. The results of Markov-switching dynamic regression, when we consider high-growth Unemployment in long term, shows the variables Monetary Policy, Consumer Price and Trade Policy indexes have a negative and significant impact on Unemployment, while, Fiscal Policy and Geo Political Risk presents a positive and significant effect on Unemployment. Moreover, this results also contribute to explain the changes occurred and the duration of these same transition periods of the two regimes, regime of expansion for regime of recession in the labor market contributed greatly to the effects of the various categories of uncertain economic policies. This paper will be interesting for a broad range of labor market participants. The investors' perception of monetary policy, fiscal policy, geopolitical risk, Equity Market volatility will shape the US economic anxiety, the economic policy uncertainty and the labor market behavior.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Download or read book Inflation Uncertainty Unemployment Uncertainty and Economic Activity written by Marc D. Hayford and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that Livingston Survey measures of unemployment uncertainty are positively correlated with inflation, that inflation Granger Causes unemployment uncertainty and that shocks to inflation uncertainty or unemployment uncertainty have similar effects on real GDP growth. This suggests higher unemployment uncertainty is a cost of higher inflation that may deserve equal billing with inflation uncertainty.
Download or read book Inflation and Unemployment written by Graham Dawson and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1992 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on economic events and policies in the UK and USA, this text argues against the New Right claim that inflation causes unemployment. The effects of unemployment on unemployed people are investigated and the impact of inflation on the distribution of income and wealth are assessed.
Download or read book The Job Market Paradox written by Gary N Brown and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2024-06-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Book DescriptionThe Job Market Paradox: Unraveling the Complexities of Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation in Modern America In a time of economic uncertainty, understanding the true state of the job market is more critical than ever. "The Job Market Paradox" delves deep into the intriguing and often contradictory world of job growth, rising unemployment, and wage dynamics. Based on comprehensive analysis and expert insights, this book offers a clear and thorough examination of May 2024's surprising labor market data. Discover: Key Insights from Current Data: Learn how the U.S. economy added a significant number of jobs in May 2024, exceeding expectations, and what this means for various sectors. Understanding Unemployment Trends: Uncover the reasons behind the rise in unemployment rates despite robust job growth, and what this paradox reveals about the labor market. Impact of Wage Dynamics: Explore the implications of stronger-than-expected wage gains and their role in the persistent inflation seen in certain sectors. Federal Reserve's Dilemma: Gain a deeper understanding of the challenges faced by policymakers in balancing interest rates, job growth, and inflation control. Sectoral Analysis: Dive into detailed sector-specific trends and discover which industries are driving job growth and which are most affected by economic shifts. Future Economic Strategies: Equip yourself with strategies for navigating economic uncertainty, whether you are a policymaker, business leader, or individual. Benefits for Readers: Informed Decision-Making: Empower yourself with the knowledge needed to make better financial, career, and business decisions in a rapidly changing economic landscape. Strategic Insights: Gain expert perspectives on how to prepare for future economic challenges and opportunities, ensuring you stay ahead of the curve. Comprehensive Understanding: Break down complex economic data into understandable insights that reveal the true state of the job market and its broader implications. Actionable Advice: Receive practical advice and strategies tailored to various stakeholders, from policymakers to individual workers, helping you navigate the paradoxes of the modern job market. "The Job Market Paradox" is an essential read for anyone looking to grasp the intricacies of today's economic trends and prepare for tomorrow's uncertainties. Whether you're an economist, business professional, student, or simply a curious reader, this book provides the tools and insights you need to understand and thrive in the current economic climate.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1963-01-01 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses effects of inflation on economic development. A mild inflation may well encourage little, or no, evasion of the “inflation tax.” On the other hand, a strong inflation, and frequently a mild one also, will lead to community reactions which have effects like those of widespread tax evasion. A development policy may have wider aims than the encouragement of a high level of investment. Inflation has two effects on the desire for liquidity, which are related to the two basic reasons why individuals and businesses wish to hold liquid assets—the speculative and precautionary motives. Inflation increases the value of effective liquidity, thereby raising the community's desire for it, but it makes the most generally accepted store of liquidity unacceptable sources of protection. The control of inflation is only one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The fight against illiteracy, the reform of bureaucratic practices, the building of basic sanitary facilities for the eradication of endemic diseases, the substitution of competitive for monopolistic trade practices, the encouragement of a widespread spirit of entrepreneurship, and the creation of an adequate amount of social capital, may be important prerequisites for rapid growth.
Download or read book Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses written by Vivek Ghosal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Targeting Inflation written by Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most observers of the Federal Reserve are willing to credit it with success at achieving low and stable rates of inflation. Many do not even question that the Fed's primary concern should be fighting inflation. However, the targets for monetary policy adopted by the Fed in recent years have not proven to be closely correlated with inflation, and commentators criticize the Fed's apparent predilection to choose whichever target appears to be pointing in the "right" direction. In the search for a target that seems to be closely correlated with inflation, some theorists and policymakers have advocated the use of a price index--most notably the consumer price index (CPI)--as both the target and the goal of monetary policy. Executive Director Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Research Associate L. Randall Wray argue in this Public Policy Brief that the CPI deviates in several important respects from an ideal theoretical measure of inflation. An ideal measure would, first, accurately reflect market-caused price increases and, second, potentially be under the control of monetary policy. The authors show that the CPI fails in both respects. Papadimitriou and Wray attempt to determine which components of the CPI have tended to pull up the index and to analyze the avenues through which monetary policy might attenuate the rate of price increase of these individual components. Their investigation is consistent with recent concerns over apparent biases in the CPI when used as a cost-of-living index, but their analysis extends beyond such concerns; they also focus on how and why the CPI is not appropriate as a target or goal of monetary policy because the transmission mechanisms through which monetary policy is thought to affect the CPI are tenuous at best. The authors argue that this is due in part to the fact that components of the CPI involve "imputed" values that are largely unconnected with those fundamental market forces likely to be influenced by Fed policy. Papadimitriou and Wray note that although "it is beyond the scope of this Public Policy Brief to examine all of the components of the CPI, we are convinced that use of any index of price changes will be fraught with difficulties similar to those outlined here." The anomalies they find in the CPI's housing component data are not unique; rather, they "suspect there are other important anomalies reflected in the CPI that make it a poor measure of inflation to be used in monetary policy formation." Therefore, careful reconsideration of an alternative ultimate target, such as the rate of economic growth or the unemployment rate, is warranted. However, given the uncertainties involved in the choice of such ultimate targets, the authors think it would be premature for the Fed to commit to any particular goal, especially one of "price stability." Moreover, because the evidence presented here sheds doubt on how central banks might fight inflation or if they can reduce it, and because there is no credible evidence that a moderate rise in interest rates causes smooth curtailment of spending plans, the authors conclude that this is an inappropriate time to amend the Employment Act of 1946 and the Humphrey-Hawkins Act of 1978 and to require the Fed to focus on price stability and to ignore other important economic indicators of our nation's well-being.
Download or read book Inflation Crises and Long run Growth written by Michael Bruno and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.
Download or read book Inflation written by Robert E. Hall and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the latest thoughts of a brilliant group of young economists on one of the most persistent economic problems facing the United States and the world, inflation. Rather than attempting an encyclopedic effort or offering specific policy recommendations, the contributors have emphasized the diagnosis of problems and the description of events that economists most thoroughly understand. Reflecting a dozen diverse views—many of which challenge established orthodoxy—they illuminate the economic and political processes involved in this important issue.
Download or read book Money Growth Uncertainty Inflation Uncertainty and Real Output Growth written by Seungjun Lee and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
