Download or read book The Dollar as a Speculative Bubble written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble written by Kenneth A. Froot and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several recent developments have inspired us to consider a non-standard model of the dollar as a speculative bubble without the constraint of fully rational expectations: (1) the dollar continued to rise in 1984 after real interest rate differentials and other fundamentals began moving the wrong way; (2) the results of market efficiency tests imply, that the rationally expected rate of dollar depreciation has been less than the forward discount; (3) Krugman-Marris current account calculations suggest that the rationally expected rate of depreciation is greater than the forward discount; (4) survey data show an expected rate of depreciation that is also greater than the forward discount; (5) the hypothesis of a "safe-haven" shift into U.S. assets and a decrease in the U.S. risk premium, which would explain some of the foregoing, is contradicted by a decline in the differential between off shore interest rates (covered) and U.S. interest rates. Our model features three classes of actors: fundamentalists, chartists and portfolio managers. Fundamentalists forecast a depreciation of the dollar based on an overshooting model that would be rational if there were no chartists. Chartists extrapolate recent trends based on an information set that includes no fundamentals. Portfolio managers take positions in the market, and thus determine the exchange rate, based on expectations that area weighted average of the fundamentalists and chartists. The first stage of the dollar appreciation after 1980 is explained by increases in real interest differentials. The second stage is explained by the endogenous takeoff of a speculative bubble when the fundamentalists have mis-forecast for so long that they have lost credibility. In 1985, the dollar may have entered a third stage in which an ever-worsening current account deficit begins a reversal of the bubble

Download or read book The Dollar as a Speculative Bubble written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Speculative Bubbles Speculative Attacks and Policy Switching written by Robert P. Flood and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.

Download or read book The Dollar as Speculative Bubble written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several recent developments have inspired us to consider a non-standard model of the dollar as a speculative bubble without the constraint of fully rational expectations: (1) the dollar continued to rise in 1984 after real interest rate differentials and other fundamentals began moving the wrong way; (2) the results of market efficiency tests imply, that the rationally expected rate of dollar depreciation has been less than the forward discount; (3) Krugman-Marris current account calculations suggest that the rationally expected rate of depreciation is greater than the forward discount; (4) survey data show an expected rate of depreciation that is also greater than the forward discount; (5) the hypothesis of a quot;safe-havenquot; shift into U.S. assets and a decrease in the U.S. risk premium, which would explain some of the foregoing, is contradicted by a decline in the differential between off shore interest rates (covered) and U.S. interest rates. Our model features three classes of actors: fundamentalists, chartists and portfolio managers. Fundamentalists forecast a depreciation of the dollar based on an overshooting model that would be rational if there were no chartists. Chartists extrapolate recent trends based on an information set that includes no fundamentals. Portfolio managers take positions in the market, and thus determine the exchange rate, based on expectations that area weighted average of the fundamentalists and chartists. The first stage of the dollar appreciation after 1980 is explained by increases in real interest differentials. The second stage is explained by the endogenous takeoff of a speculative bubble when the fundamentalists have mis-forecast for so long that they have lost credibility. In 1985, the dollar may have entered a third stage in which an ever-worsening current account deficit begins a reversal of the bubble.

Download or read book Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money written by and published by Ludwig von Mises Institute. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Housing Bubble was hardly the first in human history. What's eluded historians is the same issue that eludes commentators today: the underlying cause of bubbles. This book is the first (and only) book to solve the mystery of the most famous bubble in world history: Tulipmania in 17th century Netherlands. It Is a legendary event but explanations have been lacking. People blame irrational exuberance, free markets, and an unleashed aristocracy. Douglas French takes a different route: he follows the money to prove that the bubble resulted from a government intervention that dramatically exploded the money supply and fueled the tulip-price bubble – not altogether different from modern bubbles. This book was French’s Master’s thesis written under the direction of Murray Rothbard and examining three of the most famous speculative bubble episodes in history through the lens of Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Although each of these episodes is well documented, this book examines the monetary interventions that engendered each of these events showing that not only the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble were caused by government meddling, but Tulipmania was as well. Tulipmania was unique in that it was the sound money policy of the Dutch combined with free coinage laws that led to an acute increase in the supply of money and fostered an atmosphere that was ripe for speculation and malinvestment, manifesting itself in the intense trading of tulip bulbs. The author examines not only the Mississippi Bubble but also the life and monetary theories of its architect, John Law. Professor Joe Salerno calls Law the world’s first macroeconomist who implemented a Keynesian monetary system in France nearly two hundred years before Keynes was born. At the same time across the English Channel, a nearly bankrupt British government looked on with envy at Law’s system, believing that he was working a financial miracle. It was anything but this and investors in both countries were devastated. Although these episodes occurred centuries ago, readers will find the events eerily similar to today’s bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going, and government bailouts of companies after the crash. When will we learn? We first have to get cause and effect in history straight. This book is an excellent contribution to that effort.

Download or read book America s Bubble Economy written by David Wiedemer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-11-04 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: America’s Bubble Economy is the first book to focus on several simultaneous financial bubbles that are interacting to temporarily boost—and ultimately threaten—the United States and world economies. Filled with expert analysis and straight talk, this book will show you how to turn the coming economic transformation into a once-in-a-lifetime wealth-building opportunity.

Download or read book Speculation And The Dollar written by Laurence Krause and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I began serious consideration of the issues and subject matter that comprise this book as a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. In need of a dissertation topic and vaguely curious about international monetary economics, I decided to sit in on Leonard Rapping's undergraduate course on international finance. Needless to say, I was soon hooked. Within several months I was teaching my own course on international money and beginning to write an outline of what would become my doctoral dissertation on foreign exchange speculation. Once completed the dissertation thesis became this basis for this book.

Download or read book Speculation and the Dollar written by Laurence Krause and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-10-02 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I began serious consideration of the issues and subject matter that comprise this book as a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. In need of a dissertation topic and vaguely curious about international monetary economics, I decided to sit in on Leonard Rapping's undergraduate course on international finance. Needless to say, I was soon hooked. Within several months I was teaching my own course on international money and beginning to write an outline of what would become my doctoral dissertation on foreign exchange speculation. Once completed the dissertation thesis became this basis for this book.

Download or read book Speculative Bubbles in the Dollar Deutschemark Rate written by Christopher Lynn Graves and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Early Speculative Bubbles Increases In The Supply of Money written by Douglas E. French and published by Palmetto Publishing. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dive into the Untold Story of Historical Bubbles: Discover the Monetary Secrets Behind World's Greatest Economic Mysteries. For the discerning reader with a passion for economic history, Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases In The Supply of Money: 4th Expanded Edition opens the vault to the past's most captivating financial enigmas. Douglas E. French masterfully charts a course through history's turbulent monetary waters, revealing the underlying currents that drove the world's most talked-about economic bubbles. Dive deep into the heart of 17th-century Netherlands, a realm where the simple tulip bulb became the center of an economic whirlwind, the legendary Tulipmania. But was it mere human folly that drove this frenzy? French challenges popular theories, spotlighting the unobserved governmental interventions and money supply explosions that truly fanned the flames. Travel from the illustrious trading floors where the South Sea Bubble and Panic of 1857 were born, to the gilded coasts of California during its monumental gold rush. Each tale unravels a consistent thread: the hidden hand of government meddling and the intoxication of rapid money creation. This 4th edition, building upon French's esteemed Master's thesis and expanded with fresh insights, serves as a bridge connecting past economic phenomena with present-day market dynamics. Readers will be astounded by the striking parallels between yesteryears' bubbles and today's financial headlines, each underscored by similar patterns of low interest rates, easy credit, and sweeping public euphoria. With Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases In The Supply of Money, you're not just reading economic history. You're gaining a lens to view, understand, and anticipate the financial ebbs and flows of tomorrow.

Download or read book The Stock Market Bubbles Volatility and Chaos written by G.P. Dwyer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.

Download or read book The Economics of the Dollar Cycle written by Stefan Gerlach and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 1990 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the dollar as a fulcrum, the original essays in this book discuss the causes of the dramatic shifts in the dollar's exchange value during the past decade and the effect of these fluctuations on the economies of the United States, Japan, Europe, and the developing nations, as well as its impact on theories of international economics.

Download or read book On the Exchange Rate of the Dollar written by Nikitas Pittis and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Evidence of a Speculative Bubble in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Evren Ergin and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Dot com Bubble the Bush Deficits and the U S Current Account written by Aart Kraay and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position."

Download or read book Plunder and Blunder written by Dean Baker and published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers. This book was released on 2009-01-20 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the second time this decade, the U.S. economy id sinking into a recession due to the collapse of a financial bubble. The most recent calamity will lead to a downturn deeper and longer than the stock market crash of 2001. Dean Baker's Plunder and Blunder chronicles the growth and collapse of the stock and housing bubbles and explains how policy blunders and greed led to the catastrophic --but completely predictable --market meltdowns. An expert guide to recent economic history, Baker offers policy prescriptions to help prevent similar financial disasters.