Download or read book The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias written by John Y. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Small sample properties of parameter estimates and test statistics in the vector autoregressive dividend ratio model (Campbell and Shiller [1988 a,b]) are derived by stochastic simulation. The data generating processes are co integrated vector autoregressive models, estimated subject to restrictions implied by the dividend ratio model, or altered to show a unit root.
Download or read book Market Volatility written by Robert J. Shiller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992-01-30 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.
Download or read book Subsampling written by Dimitris N. Politis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since Efron's profound paper on the bootstrap, an enormous amount of effort has been spent on the development of bootstrap, jacknife, and other resampling methods. The primary goal of these computer-intensive methods has been to provide statistical tools that work in complex situations without imposing unrealistic or unverifiable assumptions about the data generating mechanism. This book sets out to lay some of the foundations for subsampling methodology and related methods.
Download or read book Quantitative Financial Economics written by Keith Cuthbertson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-05-05 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of the hugely successful Quantitative Financial Economics has been revised and updated to reflect the most recent theoretical and econometric/empirical advances in the financial markets. It provides an introduction to models of economic behaviour in financial markets, focusing on discrete time series analysis. Emphasis is placed on theory, testing and explaining ‘real-world’ issues. The new edition will include: Updated charts and cases studies. New companion website allowing students to put theory into practice and to test their knowledge through questions and answers. Chapters on Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping and market microstructure.
Download or read book Some Further Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator written by Charles R. Nelson and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New results on the exact small sample distribution of the instrumental variable estimator are presented by studying an important special case. The exact closed forms for the probability density and cumulative distribution functions are given. There are a number of surprising findings. The small sample distribution is bimodal. with a point of zero probability mass. As the asymptotic variance grows large, the true distribution becomes concentrated around this point of zero mass. The central tendency of the estimator may be closer to the biased least squares estimator than it is to the true parameter value. The first and second moments of the IV estimator are both infinite. In the case in which least squares is biased upwards, and most of the mass of the IV estimator lies to the right of the true parameter, the mean of the IV estimator is infinitely negative. The difference between the true distribution and the normal asymptotic approximation depends on the ratio of the asymptotic variance to a parameter related to the correlation between the regressor and the regression, error. In particular, when the instrument is poorly correlated with the regressor, the asymptotic approximation to the distribution of the instrumental variable estimator will not be very accurate.
Download or read book Applied Approaches to Societal Institutions and Economics written by Tohru Naito and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-21 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives readers the theoretical and empirical methods to analyze applied economics. They are institutional economics, information economics, environmental economics, international economics, financial economics, industrial organization, public economics, law and economics, and spatial economics. Because the chapters of this book deal with current topics in these categories, they are relevant not only to researchers and graduate students but also to policy makers and entrepreneurs. As there is uncertainty about the global economy, it is necessary to consider optimal, efficient behavior to survive in the confused world. The book is organized in three parts. Part 1 deals with institutional economics, information economics, and related topics, approached through game theory. Part 2 focuses on environmental economics, international economics, and financial economics, through a microeconomic or econometric approach. Finally, Part 3 concentrates on public economics, social security, and related fields, through microeconomics or macroeconomics.
Download or read book Predictions Nonlinearities and Portfolio Choice written by Friedrich Christian Kruse and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2012 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance researchers and asset management practitioners put a lot of effort into the question of optimal asset allocation. With this respect, a lot of research has been conducted on portfolio decision making as well as quantitative modeling and prediction models. This study brings together three fields of research, which are usually analyzed in an isolated manner in the literature: - Predictability of asset returns and their covariance matrix - Optimal portfolio decision making - Nonlinear modeling, performed by artificial neural networks, and their impact on predictions as well as optimal portfolio construction Including predictability in asset allocation is the focus of this work and it pays special attention to issues related to nonlinearities. The contribution of this study to the portfolio choice literature is twofold. First, motivated by the evidence of linear predictability, the impact of nonlinear predictions on portfolio performances is analyzed. Predictions are empirically performed for an investor who invests in equities (represented by the DAX index), bonds (represented by the REXP index) and a risk-free rate. Second, a solution to the dynamic programming problem for intertemporal portfolio choice is presented. The method is based on functional approximations of the investor's value function with artificial neural networks. The method is easily capable of handling multiple state variables. Hence, the effect of adding predictive parameters to the state space is the focus of analysis as well as the impacts of estimation biases and the view of a Bayesian investor on intertemporal portfolio choice. One important empirical result shows that residual correlation among state variables have an impact on intertemporal portfolio decision making.
Download or read book Handbook Of The Fundamentals Of Financial Decision Making In 2 Parts written by Leonard C Maclean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2nd edition published in 2006).
Download or read book Irrational Exuberance written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
Download or read book Stock Market Crashes Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them written by William T Ziemba and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2017-08-30 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.
Download or read book Sustainability of External Imbalances written by Angélique Herzberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-08-28 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the mid-1990s, sustainability of large and persistent current account positions have been attracting much attention from policy makers and economists alike. Alongside global imbalances, sustainability of imbalances within the euro area, which started widening shortly after the introduction of the euro, raised much concern. While there exists a large body of theoretical and empirical literature on sustainability of external imbalances, a systematic survey has been lacking so far. Angélique Herzberg fills this gap by examining a broad range of established sustainability measures concerning their applicability to the various global and intra-euro imbalances of the recent past. Furthermore, the author examines the existence of feedback effects from an economy ́s net international investment position to its trade balance.
Download or read book Advances in Behavioral Finance Volume II written by Richard H. Thaler and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2005-07-05 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a definitive and wide-ranging overview of developments in behavioral finance over the past ten years. In 1993, the first volume provided the standard reference to this new approach in finance--an approach that, as editor Richard Thaler put it, "entertains the possibility that some of the agents in the economy behave less than fully rationally some of the time." Much has changed since then. Not least, the bursting of the Internet bubble and the subsequent market decline further demonstrated that financial markets often fail to behave as they would if trading were truly dominated by the fully rational investors who populate financial theories. Behavioral finance has made an indelible mark on areas from asset pricing to individual investor behavior to corporate finance, and continues to see exciting empirical and theoretical advances. Advances in Behavioral Finance, Volume II constitutes the essential new resource in the field. It presents twenty recent papers by leading specialists that illustrate the abiding power of behavioral finance--of how specific departures from fully rational decision making by individual market agents can provide explanations of otherwise puzzling market phenomena. As with the first volume, it reaches beyond the world of finance to suggest, powerfully, the importance of pursuing behavioral approaches to other areas of economic life. The contributors are Brad M. Barber, Nicholas Barberis, Shlomo Benartzi, John Y. Campbell, Emil M. Dabora, Daniel Kent, François Degeorge, Kenneth A. Froot, J. B. Heaton, David Hirshleifer, Harrison Hong, Ming Huang, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Josef Lakonishok, Owen A. Lamont, Roni Michaely, Terrance Odean, Jayendu Patel, Tano Santos, Andrei Shleifer, Robert J. Shiller, Jeremy C. Stein, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Richard H. Thaler, Sheridan Titman, Robert W. Vishny, Kent L. Womack, and Richard Zeckhauser.
Download or read book The Distribution of the Instrumental Variables Estimator and Its T ratio when the Instrument is a Poor One written by Charles R. Nelson and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Download or read book Pension Fund Economics and Finance written by Jacob Bikker and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pension fund benefits are crucial for pensioners’ welfare and pension fund savings have accumulated to huge amounts, covering a major part of world-wide institutional investments. However, the literature on pension fund economics and finance is rather limited, caused, in part, to limited data availability. This book contributes to this literature and focuses on three important areas. The first is pension fund (in)efficiency, which has a huge impact on final benefits, particularly when annual spoilage accumulates over a lifetime. Scale economies, pension plans complexity and alternative pension saving plans are important issues. The second area is investment behavior and risk-taking. A key question refers to the allocation of investments over high risk/high return and relatively safe assets. Bikker investigates whether pension funds follow the life-cycle hypothesis: more risk and return for pension funds with young participants. Many pension funds are rather limited in size, which may raise the question how financially sophisticated the pension fund decision makers are: rather professionals or closer to unskilled private persons? The third field concerns two regulation issues. How do pension fund respond to shocks such as unexpected investment returns or changes in life expectancy? What are the welfare implications to the beneficiary for different methods of securing pension funding: solvency requirements, a pension guarantee fund, or sponsor support? This groundbreaking book will challenge the way pension fund economics is thought about and practiced.
Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
