Download or read book The Design of a Probabilistic Simulation Model for the Evaluation of Risky Investments and the Development of a Scheme for Its Implementation written by R. R. Johnson and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Analyzing Risk through Probabilistic Modeling in Operations Research written by Jakóbczak, Dariusz Jacek and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2015-11-03 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic modeling represents a subject spanning many branches of mathematics, economics, and computer science to connect pure mathematics with applied sciences. Operational research also relies on this connection to enable the improvement of business functions and decision making. Analyzing Risk through Probabilistic Modeling in Operations Research is an authoritative reference publication discussing the various challenges in management and decision science. Featuring exhaustive coverage on a range of topics within operational research including, but not limited to, decision analysis, data mining, process modeling, probabilistic interpolation and extrapolation, and optimization methods, this book is an essential reference source for decision makers, academicians, researchers, advanced-level students, technology developers, and government officials interested in the implementation of probabilistic modeling in various business applications.
Download or read book Development and Application of a Probabilistic Simulation Model for Financial Planning written by Pamela Kathryn Coats and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering written by Evgueni D. Solojentsev and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-10 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, banking, and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). This edition includes new chapters providing a detailed treatment of scenario logic and probabilistic models for revealing bribes. It also contains clear definitions and notations, revised sections and chapters, an extended list of references, and a new subject index, as well as more than a hundred illustrations and tables which motivate the presentation.
Download or read book Simulation Modeling Using Risk written by Wayne L. Winston and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis written by James Robert Evans and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulation fundamentals : Introduction to Simulation - Simulation Using Excel - Probability and Statistics in Simulation - Simulation in risk analysis : Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball - Applications of Risk Analysis - Building System Simulation Models - Systems simulation : Output Analysis and Experimentation for Systems Simulation - Systems Simulation Using ProcessModel - Applications of Systems Simulation - Extensions of simulation : Simulation in Forecasting and Optimization.
Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling Using Risk written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-29 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practical Spreadsheet Modeling Using @Risk provides a guide of how to construct applied decision analysis models in spreadsheets. The focus is on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to provide quantitative assessment of uncertainties and key risk drivers. The book presents numerous examples based on real data and relevant practical decisions in a variety of settings, including health care, transportation, finance, natural resources, technology, manufacturing, retail, and sports and entertainment. All examples involve decision problems where uncertainties make simulation modeling useful to obtain decision insights and explore alternative choices. Good spreadsheet modeling practices are highlighted. The book is suitable for graduate students or advanced undergraduates in business, public policy, health care administration, or any field amenable to simulation modeling of decision problems. The book is also useful for applied practitioners seeking to build or enhance their spreadsheet modeling skills. Features Step-by-step examples of spreadsheet modeling and risk analysis in a variety of fields Description of probabilistic methods, their theoretical foundations, and their practical application in a spreadsheet environment Extensive example models and exercises based on real data and relevant decision problems Comprehensive use of the @Risk software for simulation analysis, including a free one-year educational software license
Download or read book Risk Opportunity Uncertainty and Other Random Models written by Alan R. Jones and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-09-13 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models (Volume V in the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting series) goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. However, the major emphasis of this volume is the use of Monte Carlo Simulation as a general technique for narrowing down potential outcomes of multiple interacting variables or cost drivers. Perhaps the most common of these in the evaluation of Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty. The trouble is that many Monte Carlo Simulation tools are ‘black boxes’ and too few estimators and forecasters really appreciate what is happening inside the ‘black box’. This volume aims to resolve that and offers tips into things that might need to be considered to remove some of the uninformed random input that often creates a misinformed misconception of ‘it must be right!’ Monte Carlo Simulation can be used to model variable determine Critical Paths in a schedule, and is key to modelling Waiting Times and cues with random arisings. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.
Download or read book Risk Models and Their Estimation written by Stephen G. Kellison and published by ACTEX Publications. This book was released on 2011 with total page 1150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much of actuarial science deals with the analysis and management of financial risk. In this text we address the topic of loss models, traditionally called risk theory by actuaries, including the estimation of such models from sample data. The theory of survival models is addressed in other texts, including the ACTEX work entitled Models for Quantifying Risk which might be considered a companion text to this one. In Risk Models and Their Estimation we consider as well the estimation of survival models, in both tabular and parametric form, from sample data. This text is a valuable reference for those preparing for Exam C of the Society of Actuaries and Exam 4 of the Casualty Actuarial Society. A separate solutions' manual with detailed solutions to the text exercises is also available.
Download or read book Risk and Uncertainty written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-22 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization The finance industry is seeing increased interest in new risk measures and techniques for portfolio optimization when parameters of the model are uncertain. This groundbreaking book extends traditional approaches of risk measurement and portfolio optimization by combining distributional models with risk or performance measures into one framework. Throughout these pages, the expert authors explain the fundamentals of probability metrics, outline new approaches to portfolio optimization, and discuss a variety of essential risk measures. Using numerous examples, they illustrate a range of applications to optimal portfolio choice and risk theory, as well as applications to the area of computational finance that may be useful to financial engineers. They also clearly show how stochastic models, risk assessment, and optimization are essential to mastering risk, uncertainty, and performance measurement. Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization provides quantitative portfolio managers (including hedge fund managers), financial engineers, consultants, and academic researchers with answers to the key question of which risk measure is best for any given problem.
Download or read book Probability Distributions in Risk Management Operations written by Constantinos Artikis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-02 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about the formulations, theoretical investigations, and practical applications of new stochastic models for fundamental concepts and operations of the discipline of risk management. It also examines how these models can be useful in the descriptions, measurements, evaluations, and treatments of risks threatening various modern organizations. Moreover, the book makes clear that such stochastic models constitute very strong analytical tools which substantially facilitate strategic thinking and strategic decision making in many significant areas of risk management. In particular the incorporation of fundamental probabilistic concepts such as the sum, minimum, and maximum of a random number of continuous, positive, independent, and identically distributed random variables in the mathematical structure of stochastic models significantly supports the suitability of these models in the developments, investigations, selections, and implementations of proactive and reactive risk management operations. The book makes extensive use of integral and differential equations of characteristic functions, mainly corresponding to important classes of mixtures of probability distributions, as powerful analytical tools for investigating the behavior of new stochastic models suitable for the descriptions and implementations of fundamental risk control and risk financing operations. These risk treatment operations very often arise in a wide variety of scientific disciplines of extreme practical importance.
Download or read book Project Planning and Implementation in Developing Countries written by Dennis A. Rondinelli and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries Design and Implementation written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-16 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación
Download or read book Probabilistic Modeling of Process Systems with Application to Risk Assessment and Fault Detection written by Taha Mohseni Ahooyi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Three new methods of joint probability estimation (modeling), a maximum-likelihood maximum-entropy method, a constrained maximum-entropy method, and a copula-based method called the rolling pin (RP) method, were developed. Compared to many existing probabilistic modeling methods such as Bayesian networks and copulas, the developed methods yield models that have better performance in terms of flexibility, interpretability and computational tractability. These methods can be used readily to model process systems and perform risk analysis and fault detection at steady state conditions, and can be coupled with appropriate mathematical tools to develop dynamic probabilistic models. Also, a method of performing probabilistic inference using RP-estimated joint probability distributions was introduced; this method is superior to Bayesian networks in several aspects. The RP method was also applied successfully to identify regression models that have high level of flexibility and are appealing in terms of computational costs.
Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 1060 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Robust Simulation for Mega Risks written by Craig E. Taylor and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-11 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.
Download or read book Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management written by Dale Lehman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a one-stop resource for performing quantitative risk analyses. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. The specific examples in the text demonstrate a number of cutting-edge tools and techniques that are very powerful in risk analysis but that are not available in other spreadsheet simulation programs. The book covers modeling complex correlations, aggregating uncertainty and variability, and estimating parameter and model uncertainty. The included CD-ROM provides a 120-day trial of ModelRisk.
