Download or read book The Cognitive Bases of Intelligence Analysis written by J. R. Thompson and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Cognitive Bases of Intelligence Analysis written by J. R. Thompson and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-03-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis written by Martha Whitesmith and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Download or read book Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-03-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Download or read book Thinking and Writing written by Robert Sinclair and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-04-28 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes some of the powerful metaphors that have developed over the past two decades about the workings of our minds including cognitive science (which embraces several disciplines, notably computer science, linguistics, neurophysiology and psychology), in an attempt to apply those metaphors to the workings of the CIA's Directorate of Intelligence. These findings have obvious implications for the way the directorate recruits and trains its people. The term "cognitive science" embraces several disciplines, notably computer science, linguistics, and neurophysiology, as well as psychology. A cognitive scientist seeks to understand what the mind does when it searches for patterns, when it makes a value judgment, when it must choose between pattern-finding and judgment-making, when it engages in the myriad other activities that occupy it. Some fragmentary answers to questions such as this have become possible in the last 20 years. Before they are six years old, nearly all humans learn to generalize, to impute continuity, to discern relationships, and to determine cause-and-effect. Moreover, we can store the conclusions drawn from such processes in a way that gives us access to them without burdening our working memory. We also learn a language, that uniquely human capacity which sits at the center of conscious cognitive activity. Language opens the way to abstraction and generalization, and permits each normal human to develop a rich network of concepts. All of us are aware of the limitations of these processes. For example, we all are obtuse in dealing with logic and probability; we are comfortable with imprecision; and our minds are conservative in their approach to new information-quicker to recognize the familiar than the unfamiliar, reluctant to change concepts once we have accepted them. Finally, there are innumerable processes that influence our mental activity but are not accessible to the conscious part of the mind. FROM THE AUTHOR: The monograph has two parts: first, a survey of cognitive science as we understood it in 1984; second, suggestions for changing the way we do intelligence analysis in light of what the discipline was telling us. As I have indicated, I think the survey section holds up pretty well. While I would like to think the reader will learn something useful from immersion in all the detail (notably the diagram on page 10, which makes graphic the many elements that interactively shape our conscious mental activity), the basic concept is quite simple. The conscious mind cannot track more than about seven cognitive elements at the same time (cognitive science jargon often refers to these elements as chunks); and to cope with this constraint, our brains constantly manipulate those elements, always at top speed and usually outside our conscious awareness. This is revised edition of a manuscript that was originally published in 1984.
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Federal Bureau Of Investigation and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J., Richards J Heuer, Jr. and published by . This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume pulls together and republishes, with some editing, updating, and additions, articles written during 1978-86 for internal use within the CIA Directorate of Intelligence. Four of the articles also appeared in the Intelligence Community journal Studies in Intelligence during that time frame. The information is relatively timeless and still relevant to the never-ending quest for better analysis. The articles are based on reviewing cognitive psychology literature concerning how people process information to make judgments on incomplete and ambiguous information. I selected the experiments and findings that seem most relevant to intelligence analysis and most in need of communication to intelligence analysts. I then translated the technical reports into language that intelligence analysts can understand and interpreted the relevance of these findings to the problems intelligence analysts face. The result is a compromise that may not be wholly satisfactory to either research psychologists or intelligence analysts. Cognitive psychologists and decision analysts may complain of oversimplification, while the non-psychologist reader may have to absorb some new terminology. Unfortunately, mental processes are so complex that discussion of them does require some specialized vocabulary. Intelligence analysts who have read and thought seriously about the nature of their craft should have no difficulty with this book. Those who are plowing virgin ground may require serious effort. I wish to thank all those who contributed comments and suggestions on the draft of this book: Jack Davis (who also wrote the Introduction); four former Directorate of Intelligence (DI) analysts whose names cannot be cited here; my current colleague, Prof. Theodore Sarbin; and my editor at the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence, Hank Appelbaum. All made many substantive and editorial suggestions that helped greatly to make this a better book.
Download or read book Cognitive Task Analysis written by Jan Maarten Schraagen and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2000-06-01 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cognitive task analysis is a broad area consisting of tools and techniques for describing the knowledge and strategies required for task performance. Cognitive task analysis has implications for the development of expert systems, training and instructional design, expert decision making and policymaking. It has been applied in a wide range of settings, with different purposes, for instance: specifying user requirements in system design or specifying training requirements in training needs analysis. The topics to be covered by this work include: general approaches to cognitive task analysis, system design, instruction, and cognitive task analysis for teams. The work settings to which the tools and techniques described in this work have been applied include: 911 dispatching, faultfinding on board naval ships, design aircraft, and various support systems. The editors' goal in this book is to present in a single source a comprehensive, in-depth introduction to the field of cognitive task analysis. They have attempted to include as many examples as possible in the book, making it highly suitable for those wishing to undertake a cognitive task analysis themselves. The book also contains a historical introduction to the field and an annotated bibliography, making it an excellent guide to additional resources.
Download or read book Cognitive Processes in Intelligence Analysis written by Christine A. Montgomery and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Thinking and Writing written by Robert S. Sinclair and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Revised edition of a monograph originally published by CSI in January 1984."
Download or read book Cases in Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.
Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and published by Central Intelligence Agency. This book was released on 1999 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written to help intelligence analysts achieve a higher level of performance. Shows how people make judgments based on incomplete and ambiguous information. Offers simple tools and concepts for improving analytical skills.
Download or read book Cognitive Traps for Intelligence Analysis a Complete Guide written by Gerardus Blokdyk and published by . This book was released on 2018-02-18 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is there a Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis management charter, including business case, problem and goal statements, scope, milestones, roles and responsibilities, communication plan? How do you manage and improve your Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis work systems to deliver customer value and achieve organizational success and sustainability? Does Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis analysis show the relationships among important Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis factors? What other organizational variables, such as reward systems or communication systems, affect the performance of this Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis process? How are the Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis's objectives aligned to the organization's overall business strategy? This limited edition Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis self-assessment will make you the credible Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis domain authority by revealing just what you need to know to be fluent and ready for any Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis challenge. How do I reduce the effort in the Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis work to be done to get problems solved? How can I ensure that plans of action include every Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis task and that every Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis outcome is in place? How will I save time investigating strategic and tactical options and ensuring Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis opportunity costs are low? How can I deliver tailored Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis advice instantly with structured going-forward plans? There's no better guide through these mind-expanding questions than acclaimed best-selling author Gerard Blokdyk. Blokdyk ensures all Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis essentials are covered, from every angle: the Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis self-assessment shows succinctly and clearly that what needs to be clarified to organize the business/project activities and processes so that Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis outcomes are achieved. Contains extensive criteria grounded in past and current successful projects and activities by experienced Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis practitioners. Their mastery, combined with the uncommon elegance of the self-assessment, provides its superior value to you in knowing how to ensure the outcome of any efforts in Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis are maximized with professional results. Your purchase includes access details to the Cognitive traps for intelligence analysis self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows your organization exactly what to do next. Your exclusive instant access details can be found in your book.
