Download or read book The Case for Speculation in the U S Crude Oil Market written by Mary Grace Flannery and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatile oil prices in the United States in recent years have led to a focus on speculation in the crude oil markets. Some legislators and the public place the blame for high oil prices on speculators and aim to impose greater regulation on this category of traders. However, do speculators influence price in the crude oil market, or can fundamental factors sufficiently explain the price of crude oil? This thesis examines the pros and cons of speculative activity in the U.S. crude oil market, conducts a quantitative analysis to determine the relationship between speculative activity and crude oil prices, discusses proposed legislation, and endorses selected legislation for greater disclosure of OTC derivatives.
Download or read book The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Download or read book Speculation Futures Prices and the U S Real Price of Crude Oil written by Lonnie K. Stevans and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, we examine the relationship between the U.S. real price of oil and factors that affect its movement over time: futures prices, the value of the dollar, exploration, demand, and supply. All of these variables are treated as jointly endogenous and a reduced form vector error correction model, testing for cointegration amongst the variables, is estimated. We find that for model specifications with short-term futures contracts, supply does indeed dominate price movements in the crude oil market. However, for specifications including longer-term contracts that are inherently more speculative, the real price of oil appears to be determined predominantly by the futures price. Moreover, there is empirical evidence of hoarding in the crude oil market: both oil stocks/inventories and futures prices are found to be positively cointegrated/correlated with each other. From a policy perspective, the results of this analysis indicate that if regulators really wanted to limit speculation in the oil market, they should keep the shorter-term futures contracts and eliminate the more speculative six months futures contracts.
Download or read book Non commercial Institutional Investors on the Price of Oil written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Speculation on the Crude Oil Market written by Pavel Slechta and published by . This book was released on 2012-09-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Big Fish written by Alessandro Cologni and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Download or read book S Hrg 110 382 written by U.S. Government Printing Office (Gpo) and published by BiblioGov. This book was released on 2013-10 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States Government Printing Office (GPO) was created in June 1860, and is an agency of the U.S. federal government based in Washington D.C. The office prints documents produced by and for the federal government, including Congress, the Supreme Court, the Executive Office of the President and other executive departments, and independent agencies. A hearing is a meeting of the Senate, House, joint or certain Government committee that is open to the public so that they can listen in on the opinions of the legislation. Hearings can also be held to explore certain topics or a current issue. It typically takes between two months up to two years to be published. This is one of those hearings.
Download or read book Speculation in the Crude Oil Market written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Understanding Oil Prices written by Salvatore Carollo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-11-22 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Download or read book Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Speculation and Return Volatility written by Rui Wang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil written by Lutz Kilian and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Speculation and Volatility in the Crude Oil Futures Market written by Yun Pan and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Speculative activity is often claimed to be the cause of high price and turmoil in the crude oil futures market. We use Working's T and a new speculative index to measure the degree of speculation in the crude oil futures market. We find that the variation in the volatility of the crude oil futures market can be explained by the variation in the speculative index, but the economic significance of this relationship is quite low. Granger causality tests show that changes in the degree of speculation lead to changes in volatility in the crude oil futures market, but reverse relationship does not hold. In addition the causality effect is weak. After the Commodity Futures Modernization Act was enacted, speculative activity played a more important role in explaining futures market volatility, and other fundamental factors' explanatory power decreased significantly.
