Download or read book The Ability of VIX Futures to Predict S P 500 Volatility written by Peter Williams and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the ability of futures on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to predict realized S&P 500 volatility up to seven months into the future. These forecasts are found to be significantly biased. The imposition of a priori theoretically motivated restrictions can substantially improve forecast accuracy, especially when the VIX futures are augmented with the variance risk premium. When VIX futures are compared with out-of-sample forecasts from a GJR-GARCH model, the VIX-based forecasts are found to robustly outperform during periods of high volatility. In more normal states this out-performance is less significant but still present.
Download or read book Is the VIX Futures Market Able to Predict the VIX Index A Test of the Expectation Hypothesis written by Marcus Nossman and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper tests the expectation hypothesis by using the volatility index VIX and the futures written on that index. Because the VIX index is negatively correlated with the Samp;P 500 index returns, the VIX futures price should contain a negative risk premium, which we do confirm in this study. When the futures price is not adjusted with the risk premium, the expectation hypothesis is rejected at the 5 percent significance level for 20 of 21 forecast horizons. However when we adjust the futures price with the risk premium, obtained from a stochastic volatility model, the expectation hypothesis cannot be rejected. Further, we find that the risk premium adjusted futures price forecasts the direction of the VIX index well. The one day ahead forecast predicts the direction correctly in 73 percent of the times.
Download or read book Trading VIX Derivatives written by Russell Rhoads and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-09 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to using the VIX to forecast and trade markets Known as the fear index, the VIX provides a snapshot of expectations about future stock market volatility and generally moves inversely to the overall stock market. Trading VIX Derivatives will show you how to use the Chicago Board Options Exchange's S&P 500 volatility index to gauge fear and greed in the market, use market volatility to your advantage, and hedge stock portfolios. Engaging and informative, this book skillfully explains the mechanics and strategies associated with trading VIX options, futures, exchange traded notes, and options on exchange traded notes. Many market participants look at the VIX to help understand market sentiment and predict turning points. With a slew of VIX index trading products now available, traders can use a variety of strategies to speculate outright on the direction of market volatility, but they can also utilize these products in conjunction with other instruments to create spread trades or hedge their overall risk. Reviews how to use the VIX to forecast market turning points, as well as reveals what it takes to implement trading strategies using VIX options, futures, and ETNs Accessible to active individual traders, but sufficiently sophisticated for professional traders Offers insights on how volatility-based strategies can be used to provide diversification and enhance returns Written by Russell Rhoads, a top instructor at the CBOE's Options Institute, this book reflects on the wide range of uses associated with the VIX and will interest anyone looking for profitable new forecasting and trading techniques.
Download or read book The VIX Index and Volatility Based Global Indexes and Trading Instruments A Guide to Investment and Trading Features written by Matthew T. Moran and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2020-04-28 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past two decades, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX® Index), a key measure of investor sentiment and 30-day future volatility expectations, has generated much investor attention because of its unique and powerful features. The introduction of VIX futures in 2004, VIX options in 2006, and other volatility-related trading instruments provided traders and investors access to exchange-traded vehicles for taking long and short exposures to expected S&P 500 Index volatility for a particular time frame. Certain VIX-related tradable products may provide benefits when used as tools for tail-risk hedging, diversification, risk management, or alpha generation. Gauges of expected stock market volatility for various regions include the VIX Index (United States), AXVI Index (Australia), VHSI Index (Hong Kong), NVIX Index (India) and VSTOXX Index (Europe). All five of these volatility indexes had negative correlations with their related stock indexes price movements, and all five volatility indexes rose more than 50% in 2008. Although the five volatility indexes are not investable, investors can explore VIX-based benchmark indexes that show the performance of hypothetical investment strategies using VIX futures or options. Before investing in volatility-related products, investors should closely study the pricing, roll cost, and volatility features of the tradable products and read the applicable prospectuses and risk disclosure statements.
Download or read book Asset Pricing and Portfolio Performance written by Robert A. Korajczyk and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive reference work presenting an original framework for evaluating observed differences in returns across assets.
Download or read book Fundamentals of Futures and Options written by Roger G. Clarke and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Derivative securities and markets have experienced tremendous worldwide growth since 1970. But even so, they are not always well understood. To remedy this situation, the authors explain the link between options and futures and the underlying security or index from which they ultimately derive their value. Pricing and hedging relationships of futures contracts, option characteristics and strategies, and option pricing and hedging relationships are also addressed. To further assist the reader, the authors include exercises to reinforce the concepts as well as a glossary. The result is an updated look at options and futures that can benefit many of us.
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Download or read book Trading Volatility written by Colin Bennett and published by . This book was released on 2014-08-17 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Download or read book Forecasting the Volatility of Stock Market and Oil Futures Market written by Dexiang Mei and published by Scientific Research Publishing, Inc. USA. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility has been one of the cores of the financial theory research, in addition to the stock markets and the futures market are an important part of modern financial markets. Forecast volatility of the stock market and oil futures market is an important part of the theory of financial markets research.
Download or read book How I Trade for a Living written by Gary Smith and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-11-09 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Viele Händler und aktive Anleger träumen davon, das Handeln professionell zu betreiben. Analysten, Fondsmanager und andere Experten haben zwar eine Fülle an Literatur über Handelsstrategien verfaßt, aber zum Thema 'Erfolgreich Handeln von zu Hause' gab es bislang keine Informationen. Bis jetzt! Hier ist das erste Buch, das sich mit diesem Thema eingehend beschäftigt. Autor Gary Smith handelt seit über 15 Jahren erfolgreich von zu Hause aus. Er ist ein berühmtes und angesehenes Mitglied der Händlergemeinschaft und erklärt, was es heißt, von zu Hause aus zu agieren - mit der nötigen Courage und Hardware. Smith erläutert seine gewinnbringenden Handelsstrategien, die er für Aktien, Optionen und Anleihen einsetzt und demonstriert, wie er diese bei Aktien-Index-Futures und offenen Investmentfonds anwendet. Seine Strategie ist einfach, ohne komplexe technische Indikatoren, ohne verwirrende Charts, ohne große Softwareausstattung und mit geringem Risiko. Ein realistischer Leitfaden für jeden, der professionell einsteigen will. (12/99)
Download or read book The Fear Index written by Robert Harris and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2012-01-31 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the nexus of high finance and sophisticated computer programming, a terrifying future may be unfolding even now. Dr. Alex Hoffmann’s name is carefully guarded from the general public, but within the secretive inner circles of the ultrarich he is a legend. He has developed a revolutionary form of artificial intelligence that predicts movements in the financial markets with uncanny accuracy. His hedge fund, based in Geneva, makes billions. But one morning before dawn, a sinister intruder breaches the elaborate security of his lakeside mansion, and so begins a waking nightmare of paranoia and violence as Hoffmann attempts, with increasing desperation, to discover who is trying to destroy him. Fiendishly smart and suspenseful, The Fear Index gives us a searing glimpse into an all-too-recognizable world of greed and panic. It is a novel that forces us to confront the question of what it means to be human—and it is Robert Harris’s most spellbinding and audacious novel to date.
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence in Asset Management written by Söhnke M. Bartram and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2020-08-28 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial intelligence (AI) has grown in presence in asset management and has revolutionized the sector in many ways. It has improved portfolio management, trading, and risk management practices by increasing efficiency, accuracy, and compliance. In particular, AI techniques help construct portfolios based on more accurate risk and return forecasts and more complex constraints. Trading algorithms use AI to devise novel trading signals and execute trades with lower transaction costs. AI also improves risk modeling and forecasting by generating insights from new data sources. Finally, robo-advisors owe a large part of their success to AI techniques. Yet the use of AI can also create new risks and challenges, such as those resulting from model opacity, complexity, and reliance on data integrity.
Download or read book The Price of Fixed Income Market Volatility written by Antonio Mele and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-11 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities.
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Download or read book Derivatives and Hedge Funds written by Stephen Satchell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last 20 years hedge funds and derivatives have fluctuated in reputational terms; they have been blamed for the global financial crisis and been praised for the provision of liquidity in troubled times. Both topics are rather under-researched due to a combination of data and secrecy issues. This book is a collection of papers celebrating 20 years of the Journal of Derivatives and Hedge Funds (JDHF). The 18 papers included in this volume represent a small sample of influential papers included during the life of the Journal, representing industry-orientated research in these areas. With a Preface from co-editor of the journal Stephen Satchell, the first part of the collection focuses on hedge funds and the second on markets, prices and products.
Download or read book Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options written by Thi Le and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the impact of high-frequency data in forecasting market volatility and options price. New technologies have created opportunities to obtain better, faster, and more efficient datasets to explore financial market phenomena at the most acceptable data levels. It provides reliable intraday data supporting financial investment decisions across different assets classes and instruments consisting of commodities, derivatives, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. This book emphasises four key areas, (1) estimating intraday implied volatility using ultra-high frequency (5-minutes frequency) currency options to capture traders' trading behaviour, (2) computing realised volatility based on 5-minute frequency currency price to obtain speculators' speculation attitude, (3) examining the ability of implied volatility to subsume market information through forecasting realised volatility and (4) evaluating the predictive power of implied volatility for pricing currency options. This is a must-read for academics and professionals who want to improve their skills and outcomes in trading options.
