Download or read book Tail Risks Asset Prices and Investment Horizons written by Jozef Baruník and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine how extreme market risks are priced in the cross-section of asset returns at various horizons. Based on the frequency decomposition of covariance between indicator functions, we define the quantile cross-spectral beta of an asset capturing tail-specific as well as horizon-, or frequency-specific risks. Further, we work with two notions of frequency-specific extreme market risks. First, we define tail market risk that captures dependence between extremely low market as well as asset returns. Second, extreme market volatility risk is characterized by dependence between extremely high increments of market volatility and extremely low asset return. Empirical findings based on the datasets with long enough history, 30 Fama-French Industry portfolios, and 25 Fama-French portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market support our intuition. Results suggest that both frequency-specific tail market risk and extreme volatility risks are significantly priced and our five-factor model provides improvement over specifications considered by previous literature.
Download or read book Quantile Spectral Beta written by Jozef Baruník and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine how extreme market risks are priced in the cross-section of asset returns at various horizons. Based on the decomposition of covariance between indicator functions capturing fluctuations of different parts of return distributions over various frequencies, we define a textit{quantile spectral} beta representation that characterizes asset's risk generally. Nesting the traditional frameworks, the new representation explains textit{tail}-specific as well as horizon-, or frequency-specific textit{spectral} risks. Further, we work with two notions of frequency-specific extreme market risks. First, we define tail market risk that captures dependence between extremely low market and asset returns. Second, extreme market volatility risk is characterized by dependence between extremely high increments of market volatility and extremely low asset return. Empirical findings based on the datasets with long enough history, 30 Fama-French Industry portfolios, and 25 Fama-French portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market support our intuition. We reach the same conclusion using stock-level data as well as daily data. These results suggest that both frequency-specific tail market risk and extreme volatility risk are priced and our final model provides significant improvement over specifications considered by previous literature.
Download or read book TAIL RISK HEDGING Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets written by Vineer Bhansali and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2013-12-27 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it is something Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes. Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author's practical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events and how to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging explores how to: Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatility and tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios. PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING: "Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope--pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." -- ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University "This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyone involved in asset allocation today." -- CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School "Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." -- DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich
Download or read book Specifying and Managing Tail Risk in Multi Asset Portfolios A Summary written by Pranay Gupta and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Constructing a multi-asset portfolio with a constraint of tail risk aversion is challenging because (1) the individual asset classes have poor tail risk characteristics and (2) diversification between asset classes is minimal. A better portfolio can be achieved using a multi-strategy framework for the allocation process, whereby different methods of asset and risk allocation co-exist as independent strategies within the same portfolio. This framework creates strategy diversification, allows allocation to be done at multiple investment horizons, and helps to manage tail risk of the portfolio.Conventional tail risk measures, which use only the end-of-horizon return distribution, fail to capture the real risk that an asset owner has of intra-horizon drawdown. Thus, a tail risk measure that is a composite of intra-horizon and end-of-horizon risk should lead to a portfolio with fewer unexpected outcomes. Finally, a better and more aligned portfolio is created if intra-horizon risk is incorporated into the portfolio construction process, the investment horizon of each asset in the portfolio is chosen, and customized stop-loss levels are implemented at the asset level.
Download or read book Risk Based and Factor Investing written by Emmanuel Jurczenko and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a compilation of recent articles written by leading academics and practitioners in the area of risk-based and factor investing (RBFI). The articles are intended to introduce readers to some of the latest, cutting edge research encountered by academics and professionals dealing with RBFI solutions. Together the authors detail both alternative non-return based portfolio construction techniques and investing style risk premia strategies. Each chapter deals with new methods of building strategic and tactical risk-based portfolios, constructing and combining systematic factor strategies and assessing the related rules-based investment performances. This book can assist portfolio managers, asset owners, consultants, academics and students who wish to further their understanding of the science and art of risk-based and factor investing. Contains up-to-date research from the areas of RBFI Features contributions from leading academics and practitioners in this field Features discussions of new methods of building strategic and tactical risk-based portfolios for practitioners, academics and students
Download or read book Specifying and Managing Tail Risk in Portfolios A Practical Approach written by Pranay Gupta and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tail risk arises at multiple stages in the investment management process - from the high level asset allocation decision down to the individual portfolio manager's process for selecting securities. We believe that conventional practices followed in these investment decision processes, largely ignore intra-horizon risk. We believe this leads to sub-optimal assessment of risk of assets, particularly in the context of potential tail risk, and leads to the construction of portfolios, which are not in sync with the risk aversion of the client.In the present paper we propose a composite risk measure which simultaneously captures the risk of breaching a specified maximum intra-horizon drawdown threshold, as well as the risk that the performance is not met at the end of the investment horizon. We believe this captures the 'true' risk of a portfolio, much better than traditional end of horizon risk measures.We find that intra-horizon risk can represent a substantial part of the total risk, and thus needs to be managed explicitly which constructing a portfolio of assets, strategies or asset classes. We propose that varying the investment horizon and implementing a customized stop loss for each asset can help construct a portfolio where portfolio risk is kept within bounds of tolerance, and can improve performance over time.
Download or read book Risk Aversion Investment Horizons and Heterogeneous Information written by Thomas V. Schwarz and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Investment Horizons and Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information written by Elias Albagli and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I study a generalized OLG economy where asymmetrically informed agents have arbitrary investment horizons. As horizons increase, the age-adjusted risk aversion of investors fall, and the risk transfer from forced liquidators into voluntary buyers drops. Two equilibria coexist for long enough horizons: a stable, low volatility equilibrium, and an unstable one with higher volatility. Along the stable equilibrium, longer horizons raise prices, lower volatility, and incite aggressive trading by the informed investors, which impound their knowledge into prices and improve market efficiency. For short horizons, cautious trading disaggregates information from prices, and the economy approaches one with no private information.
Download or read book Tail Risk and Asset Prices written by Bryan Kelly and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is significantly correlated with tail risk measures extracted from S&P 500 index options, but is available for a longer sample since it is calculated from equity data. We show that tail risk has strong predictive power for aggregate market returns: A one standard deviation increase in tail risk forecasts an increase in excess market returns of 4.5% over the following year. Cross-sectionally, stocks with high loadings on past tail risk earn an annual three-factor alpha 5.4% higher than stocks with low tail risk loadings. These findings are consistent with asset pricing theories that relate equity risk premia to rare disasters or other forms of tail risk.
Download or read book Multi Asset Investing written by Pranay Gupta and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-09 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the accepted fact that a substantial part of the risk and return of any portfolio comes from asset allocation, we find today that the majority of investment professionals worldwide are focused on security selection. Multi-Asset Investing: A Practitioner’s Framework questions this basic structure of the investment process and investment industry. Who says we have to separate alpha and beta? Are the traditional definitions for risk and risk premium relevant in a multi-asset class world? Do portfolios cater for the ‘real risks’ in their investment processes? Does the whole Emerging Markets demarcation make sense for investing? Why do active Asian managers perform much poorer compared to developed market managers? Can you distinguish how much of a strategy’s performance comes from skill rather than luck? Does having a performance fee for your manager create alignment or misalignment? Why is the asset management transitioning from multi-asset strategies to multi-asset solutions? These and many other questions are asked, and suggestions provided as potential solutions. Having worked together for fifteen years, the authors’ present implementable solutions which have helped them successfully manage large asset pools. The Academic Perspective “Multi-Asset Investing asks fundamental questions about the asset allocation investment processes in use today, and can have a substantial impact on the future structure of the finance industry. It clarifies and distils the techniques that investment professionals need to master to add value to client portfolios.” —Paul Smith, President & CEO, CFA Institute “Pranay Gupta, Sven Skallsjo, and Bing Li describe the essential concepts and applications of multi-asset investing. Their treatment is far ranging and exceptionally lucid, and always with a nod to practical application. Buy this book and keep it close at hand.” —Mark Kritzman, MIT Sloane School of Management “Innovative solutions to some of the most difficult investment problems we are faced with today. Multi-asset Investing tackles investment issues which don’t have straight forward solutions, but nevertheless are faced by every investment professional. This book sets the standard for investment processes of all asset managers.” —SP Kothari, MIT Sloane School of Management The Asset Owner Perspective “Multi-asset means different things to different people. This is the first text that details a comprehensive framework for managing any kind of multi-asset investment problem. Further, its explanation of the commercial aspects of managing a multi-asset investment business for an asset manager, private bank or asset owner make it an indispensable tool” —Sadayuki Horie, Dy. Chairman - Investment Advisory Comm., Government Pension Investment Fund, Japan “Multi-Asset Investing shows the substantial scope there is to innovate the asset allocation process. With its novel approaches to allocation, portfolio construction and risk management it demonstrates the substantial value that can be added to any portfolio. The solutions proposed by Multi-Asset Investing are creative, thought provoking, and may well be the way all portfolios need to be managed in the future.” —Mario Therrien, Senior Vice President, Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, Canada The Asset Manager’s Perspective “Never has astute asset allocation and diversification been more crucial than today. Asset Managers which are able to innovate their investment processes and products in this area, are more likely to be the winners. Multi-Asset Investing provides both simple and sophisticated, tested and implementable techniques for successfully managing multi-asset portfolios.” —Vincent Camerlynck, former CEO BNP Paribas Investment Partners, Asia Pacific The Investment Strategist Perspective “For plan sponsors, portfolio managers, analysts and risk managers, Multi-Asset Investing is an unparalleled guide for portfolio management. Its approach to blending the quantitative and fundamental, top-down and bottom up and the risk and return frameworks makes it a valuable tool for any kind of investment professional. It clarifies a complex subject into a series of practical ideas to help add value to any portfolio.” —Ajay S. Kapur, Chief Strategist, BOA Merrill Lynch Asia
Download or read book Risk Aversion Investment Horizons and Heterogeneous Information written by Thomas Vernon Schwarz and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Systematic Tail Risk written by Richard D. F. Harris and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Download or read book Fat Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2005-09-15 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed, overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Yet many professionals don’t appreciate the highly statistical models that take this empirical evidence into consideration. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions examines this dilemma and offers readers a less technical look at how portfolio selection, risk management, and option pricing modeling should and can be undertaken when the assumption of a non-normal distribution for asset returns is violated. Topics covered in this comprehensive book include an extensive discussion of probability distributions, estimating probability distributions, portfolio selection, alternative risk measures, and much more. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions provides a bridge between the highly technical theory of statistical distributional analysis, stochastic processes, and econometrics of financial returns and real-world risk management and investments.
Download or read book Factor Investing and Asset Allocation A Business Cycle Perspective written by Vasant Naik and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Stocks Bonds And The Investment Horizon Decision making For The Long Run written by Haim Levy and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2022-04-28 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A century ago, life expectancy was roughly 40 years, hence all income could be consumed, as for most people, there was no need to save for retirement. Today, things have drastically changed: Life expectancy exceeds 80 years in many countries, and one should expect to live and consume many years after retirement. Thus, we have many investors with various investment horizons, where the length of the investment horizon becomes a crucial factor in determining the best investment diversification.This book analyzes the effect of the investment horizon on the optimal diversification, specifically between stocks and bonds: Should a young investor and an older investor have the same portfolio? Is it recommended to savers for retirement to change the asset allocation between stocks and bonds as they grow older, as life cycle mutual funds do in practice? Is the idiom 'stocks for the long run' backed by scientific evidence? We analyze for which horizons it is recommended to employ the popular Mean-Variance rule and for which horizons employing this rule induces an economic distortion, hence a loss to the investors. It is shown that all relevant parameters for investment choice (means, variances, and correlations) change in a non-linear way with the horizon, a fact that makes the investment horizon crucial for investment choices. Similarly, the popular Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen performance indices vary with the assumed horizon even in the case of independence over time. To analyze all the above issues, we employ the Mean-Variance rule and Stochastic Dominance rules, as well as direct expected utility calculations.
Download or read book High Returns from Low Risk written by Pim van Vliet and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-01-17 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Believing "high-risk equals high-reward" is holding your portfolio hostage High Returns from Low Risk proves that low-volatility, low-risk portfolios beat high-volatility portfolios hands down, and shows you how to take advantage of this paradox to dramatically improve your returns. Investors traditionally view low-risk stocks as safe but unprofitable, but this old canard is based on a flawed premise; it fails to see beyond the monthly horizon, and ignores compounding returns. This book updates the thinking and brings reality to modelling to show how low-risk stocks actually outperform high-risk stocks by an order of magnitude. Easy to read and easy to implement, the plan presented here will help you construct a portfolio that delivers higher returns per unit of risk, and explains how to achieve excellent investment results over the long term. Do you still believe that investors are rewarded for bearing risk, and that the higher the risk, the greater the reward? That old axiom is holding you back, and it is time to start seeing the whole picture. This book shows you, through deep historical simulation, how to reap the rewards of smarter investing. Learn how and why low-risk, low-volatility stocks beat the market Discover the formula that outperforms Greenblatt's Construct your own low-risk portfolio Select the right ETF or low-risk fund to manage your money Great returns and lower risk sound like a winning combination — what happens once everyone is doing it? The beauty of the low-risk strategy is that it continues to work even after the paradox is widely known; long-term investment success is possible for anyone who can shake off the entrenched wisdom and go low-risk. High Returns from Low Risk provides the proof, model and strategy to reign in your exposure while raking in the profit.
