Download or read book System Priors written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.
Download or read book System Priors for Econometric Time Series written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-17 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper introduces “system priors”, their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically-meaningful priors about high-level model properties. The generality of system priors are illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that most of its dynamics comes from business-cycle frequencies.
Download or read book Need to Apply Adequate Controls in the Army Standard Payroll System Prior to Implementation Defense wide Department of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Defense Travel System Overview of Prior Reported Challenges Faced by DoD in Implementation and Utilization written by McCoy Williams and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-10 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1995, the DoD began an effort to implement a standard departmentwide travel system, the Defense Travel System (DTS). This testimony focuses on prior reporting concerning: (1) the lack of quantitative metrics to measure the extent to which DTS is actually being used; (2) weaknesses with DTS¿s requirements mgmt. and system testing; and (3) two key assumptions related to the estimated cost savings in the Sept. 2003 DTS economic analysis were not reasonable. Also highlights actions that DoD could explore to help streamline its administrative travel processes such as using a commercial database to identify unused airline tickets. Includes recommendations. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series written by Genshiro Kitagawa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series addresses some of the problems of modeling stationary and nonstationary time series primarily from a Bayesian stochastic regression "smoothness priors" state space point of view. Prior distributions on model coefficients are parametrized by hyperparameters. Maximizing the likelihood of a small number of hyperparameters permits the robust modeling of a time series with relatively complex structure and a very large number of implicitly inferred parameters. The critical statistical ideas in smoothness priors are the likelihood of the Bayesian model and the use of likelihood as a measure of the goodness of fit of the model. The emphasis is on a general state space approach in which the recursive conditional distributions for prediction, filtering, and smoothing are realized using a variety of nonstandard methods including numerical integration, a Gaussian mixture distribution-two filter smoothing formula, and a Monte Carlo "particle-path tracing" method in which the distributions are approximated by many realizations. The methods are applicable for modeling time series with complex structures.
Download or read book Probability and Bayesian Modeling written by Jim Albert and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Download or read book Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel Hierarchical Models written by Andrew Gelman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 654 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2007, is for the applied researcher performing data analysis using linear and nonlinear regression and multilevel models.
Download or read book Web Information Systems Engineering WISE 2013 written by Xuemin Lin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-10-07 with total page 550 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Web Information Systems Engineering, WISE 2013, held in Nanjing, China, in October 2013. The 48 full papers, 29 short papers, and 10 demo and 5 challenge papers, presented in the two-volume proceedings LNCS 8180 and 8181, were carefully reviewed and selected from 198 submissions. They are organized in topical sections named: Web mining; Web recommendation; Web services; data engineering and database; semi-structured data and modeling; Web data integration and hidden Web; challenge; social Web; information extraction and multilingual management; networks, graphs and Web-based business processes; event processing, Web monitoring and management; and innovative techniques and creations.
Download or read book Learning Statistics with R written by Daniel Navarro and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2013-01-13 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Learning Statistics with R" covers the contents of an introductory statistics class, as typically taught to undergraduate psychology students, focusing on the use of the R statistical software and adopting a light, conversational style throughout. The book discusses how to get started in R, and gives an introduction to data manipulation and writing scripts. From a statistical perspective, the book discusses descriptive statistics and graphing first, followed by chapters on probability theory, sampling and estimation, and null hypothesis testing. After introducing the theory, the book covers the analysis of contingency tables, t-tests, ANOVAs and regression. Bayesian statistics are covered at the end of the book. For more information (and the opportunity to check the book out before you buy!) visit http://ua.edu.au/ccs/teaching/lsr or http://learningstatisticswithr.com
Download or read book A Guide to Serial Publications Founded Prior to 1918 and Now Or Recently Current in Boston Cambridge and Vicinity written by Thomas Johnston Homer and published by . This book was released on 1922 with total page 818 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book New York Labor Laws Enacted in written by New York (State) and published by . This book was released on 1926 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Bulletin of the Department of Labor of the State of New York written by New York (State). Dept. of Labor and published by . This book was released on 1926 with total page 724 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Opinions of the Attorney General of Ohio written by Ohio. Attorney General's Office and published by . This book was released on 1920 with total page 872 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Legislative Document written by New York (State). Legislature and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 1222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Code of Massachusetts regulations 2013 written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 3388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Archival snapshot of entire looseleaf Code of Massachusetts Regulations held by the Social Law Library of Massachusetts as of January 2014.
Download or read book Abstracts of Theses written by University of Chicago and published by . This book was released on 1928 with total page 628 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Strategic and Foreign Policy Implications of ABM Systems March 6 11 13 21 26 28 1969 written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on International Organization and Disarmament Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Considers the national and international ramifications of U.S. ABM deployment, and its effects on SALT talks with the Soviet Union.
