Download or read book Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis written by Lionel A. Galway and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.
Download or read book Foundations of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-08-31 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.
Download or read book Risk Analysis in Engineering written by Mohammad Modarres and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-27 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the author's 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the p
Download or read book Engineering Economics of Life Cycle Cost Analysis written by John Vail Farr and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-06-30 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise of the information age and the digital economy has dramatically changed engineering and other technology-driven fields. With tremendous advances in computing and communication systems, major organizational upheavals, all fueled by complexity, globalization, short cycle times, and lean supply chains, the functions of engineers have significantly changed. Engineers and similar professionals must be technically savvy and have product management and costing skills all while working in a distributed and often unstable environment. This new-edition textbook is updated to cover the integration of cost, risk, value, scheduling, and informationtechnologies going beyond basic engineering economics. Engineering Economics of Life Cycle Cost Analysis, Second Edition, offers a systems and life cycle or total ownership cost perspective. It presents advanced costing techniques such as simulation-based costing, decision and risk analysis, complex systemscosting, software, big data, and cloud computing estimation. Examples and problems demonstrating these techniques with real-world applications are also included. All engineers and similar professionals will find this book useful, but it is mainly written for systems engineers, engineering managers, program/product managers, and industrial engineers. The text can serve as a professional reference or for use with graduate courses on advanced engineering economic analysis and cost management, and financial analysis for engineers.
Download or read book A Subjective Probability System for Program Risk Visibility and Cost schedule risk Trade off Evaluation written by Frederick Theodore Helmer III. and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis written by Raymond Covert and published by . This book was released on 2014-06-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2004-07-01 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty Website presents application exercises in Excel
Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Analysis written by Tim Bedford and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-04-30 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.
Download or read book Brick and Block Masonry written by Claudio Modena and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-11-03 with total page 2558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brick and Block Masonry - Trends, Innovations and Challenges contains the lectures and regular papers presented at the 16th International Brick and Block Masonry Conference (Padova, Italy, 26-30 June 2016). In an ever-changing world, in which innovations are rapidly implemented but soon surpassed, the challenge for masonry, the oldest and most traditional building material, is that it can address the increasingly pressing requirements of quality of living, safety, and sustainability. This abstracts volume and full paper USB device, focusing on challenges, innovations, trends and ideas related to masonry, in both research and building practice, will proof to be a valuable source of information for researchers and practitioners, masonry industries and building management authorities, construction professionals and educators.
Download or read book Adversarial Risk Analysis written by David L. Banks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against
Download or read book Identifying and Managing Project Risk written by Tom Kendrick and published by AMACOM. This book was released on 2009-02-27 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.
Download or read book Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management written by Patrick J. Driscoll and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-10-25 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DECISION MAKING IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT A thoroughly updated overview of systems engineering management and decision making In the newly revised third edition of Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management, the authors deliver a comprehensive and authoritative overview of the systems decision process, systems thinking, and qualitative and quantitative multi-criteria value modeling directly supporting decision making throughout the system lifecycle. This book offers readers major new updates that cover recently developed system modeling and analysis techniques and quantitative and qualitative approaches in the field, including effective techniques for addressing uncertainty. In addition to Excel, six new open-source software applications have been added to illustrate key topics, including SIPmath Modeler Tools, Cambridge Advanced Modeller, SystemiTool2.0, and Gephi 0.9.2. The authors have reshaped the book’s organization and presentation to better support educators engaged in remote learning. New appendices have been added to present extensions for a new realization analysis technique and getting started steps for each of the major software applications. Updated illustrative examples support modern system decision making skills and highlight applications in hardware, organizations, policy, logistic supply chains, and architecture. Readers will also find: Thorough introductions to working with systems, the systems engineering perspective, and systems thinking In-depth presentations of applied systems thinking, including holism, element dependencies, expansive and contractive thinking, and concepts of structure, classification, and boundaries Comprehensive explorations of system representations leading to analysis In-depth discussions of supporting system decisions, including the system decision process (SDP), tradespace methods, multi-criteria value modeling, working with stakeholders, and the system environment Perfect for undergraduate and graduate students studying systems engineering and systems engineering management, Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management will also earn a place in the libraries of practicing system engineers and researchers with an interest in the topic.
Download or read book Cognitive Dependability Engineering written by Lech Bukowski and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-07-17 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The work is a context-oriented analysis and synthesis of complex engineered systems to ensure continuous and safe operations under conditions of uncertainty. The book is divided in four parts, the first one comprises an overview of the development of systems engineering: starting with basics of Systems Science and Single Systems Engineering, through System of Systems Engineering to Cognitive Systems Engineering. The Cognitive Systems Engineering model was based on the concept of imperfect knowledge acquisition and management. The second part shows the evolutionary character of the dependability concept over the last fifty years. Beginning from simple models based on the classical probability theory, through the concepts of tolerating faults, as well as resilience engineering, we come to the assumptions of Cognitive Dependability Engineering (CDE), based on the concept of continuous smart operation, both under normal and abnormal conditions. The subject of the next part is analysis and synthesis of Cyber-Physical-Social (CPS) Systems. The methodology consists of the following steps: modeling CPS systems' structure, simulating their behavior in changing conditions and in situations of disruptions, and finally assessing the dependability of the entire system based on CDE. The last part of the work answers the question of how to deal with risks in CPS systems in situations of high level of uncertainty. The concept of a Cognitive Digital Twin was introduced to support the process of solving complex problems by experts, and on this basis a framework for cognitive dependability based problemsolving in CPS Systems operating under deep uncertainty was developed. The possibilities and purposefulness of using this framework have been demonstrated with three practical examples of disasters that have happened in the past and have been thoroughly analyzed.
Download or read book Trusting Judgements written by Mark A. Burgman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even experienced experts can be biased and overconfident. This book explains how to ensure experts provide reliable scientific advice.
Download or read book Underground Space Use Analysis of the Past and Lessons for the Future Two Volume Set written by Sören Erdem and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2005-06-30 with total page 1384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 200 papers in this two-volume set are a selection of work by tunnel experts from Europe, Asia, and the USA, and also showcase the work of the host nation, Turkey. As the title implies, the scope of the book is enormous, covering every aspect of tunnelling from contract management to safety. The book is of special interest to researchers, scient
