Download or read book Studying First strike Stability with Knowledge based Models of Human Decision making written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First-strike stability depends on the improbability of crises and the improbability that crises would result in first strikes. This study focuses on the latter criterion, which in turn depends on crisis decisionmaking by human beings. The report argues that efforts to understand and improve first-strike stability should be guided by a formal theory of human decisionmaking that accounts for behavioral factors such as mindset, desperation, fatalism, perceptions, and fears. The author identifies three principal mechanisms for improving first-strike stability: (1) improve force-posture stability; (2) review and adjust nuclear policies and doctrine, and the way they are discussed; and (3) improve the likely quality of crisis decisionmaking through efforts involving education, exercises, and staffing.
Download or read book The De escalation of Nuclear Crises written by Joseph E. Nation and published by Springer. This book was released on 1991-06-18 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The de-escalation of a nuclear crisis is one of the major issues facing humankind. This book examines how nations in crises might successfully move back from the brink of nuclear war and how confidence-building measures might help and hinder the de-escalatory process.
Download or read book First Strike Stability written by Stephen J. Cimbala and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1990-08-24 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lifting of the Iron Curtain in response to pressures for democratic reform in the Eastern Bloc nations and the refusal of General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev to use the Red Army to police countries of the Warsaw Pact have led to a radically changed international environment. Preceded by over 40 years of peace and stability, unprecedented in the history of modern Europe, the Cold War ended in a climate of upheaval and uncertainty. This volume addresses issues associated with the political and military vacuum created by recent events and explores in depth a problem of military uncertainty: first strike stability. Stephen J. Cimbala argues that war in a system undergoing rapid change, including reductions in forces and political realignment, remains disturbingly possible due to the unforeseeable, inadvertent, and uncontrollable uncertainties that plague decision making and military planning in Washington, Moscow, and other international power centers, hence, first strike instability. This timely volume clarifies the kind of bargain superpowers and their allies have made in regard to nuclear weapons and command systems. Cimbala provides enhanced understandings of the concept and practice of nuclear deterrence and of first strike stability in a post-Cold War world that can help direct arms control efforts toward those areas that are most important to actual security. Broad aspects of the problem of first strike stability are set forth in the first chapter which also anticipates some of the connections between political and military levels of analysis discussed in the conclusion. Chapter two introduces the concepts of the state of nature and the state of war, explains how they apply to the problem of first strike stability, and why the possibility of war, including nuclear war, cannot be excluded. Chapter three focuses on the New Soviet Thinking and why the probability of accidental and inadvertent war and escalation is not affected by reducing the levels of armaments alone. Chapter four emphasizes the problems facing the United States and NATO, and the approaches to escalation control which NATO assumes will be implemented, should deterrence fail. The results of the theoretical and administrative confusion over approaches to escalation control, outlined in chapter four, reappear in chapter five in the form of problems for war termination. The controversial issue of eliminating nuclear deterrence, with emphasis on the proposal for elimination by preclusive antinuclear strategic defenses is the focus of chapter six. The final chapter reviews the implications of the preceding chapters and arrives at some startling conclusions. Scholars and students of military affairs, political scientists, government officials, and members of the military establishment will find the up-to-the-minute information and judgements contained in First Strike Stability invaluable aids to their own decision making on this profoundly important world issue.
Download or read book Clausewitz and Escalation written by Stephen J. Cimbala and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published in 1991, Clausewitz and Escalation is a valuable contribution to the field of Military & Strategic Studies.
Download or read book Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Download or read book Beyond Guns and Steel written by Dominic J. Caraccilo and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2011-01-19 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work is a doctrinal examination of war termination strategy and conflict resolution as a dependent pair, requiring a plan to achieve both in unison in advance of a fight. The necessity of a plan for conflict resolution should be intuitively obvious for policymakers, yet a survey of recent conflicts, including Afghanistan and Iraq, shows that not to be the case. Beyond Guns and Steel: A War Termination Strategy provides a practical approach to establishing a plan for war termination and conflict resolution before the bullets fly. In explaining the difference between strategy and policy, Colonel Dominic J. Caraccilo clarifies the most important, and often the most constraining, element of a nation's power—its resources. He posits that termination strategy and conflict resolution are interdependent and need to be included in conflict plans from the outset. Caraccilo's book fills a void in current strategy for the development of long-term plans that bring conflicts to timely and acceptable conclusions, providing a methodology that allows interagency requirements and resources for war termination to be defined, allocated, and employed effectively.
Download or read book Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with Al Qaeda written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2014-05-20 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Deterring terrorism is best approached as part of a broad effort to influence all elements of a terrorist system, and simple, conceptual models of decisionmaking can help in understanding how to affect others' behavior. The paper lays out a theory of how to use influence to affect elements of a terrorist system, touching on root causes, individual motivation, public support, and likely factors in the decisionmaking of terrorist organizations.
Download or read book Advances in Culturally Aware Intelligent Systems and in Cross Cultural Psychological Studies written by Colette Faucher and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-03 with total page 473 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers valuable new insights into the design of culturally-aware systems. In its first part, it is devoted to presenting selected Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems devised in the field of Artificial Intelligence and its second part consists of two sub-parts that offer a source of inspiration for building modelizations of Culture and of its influence on the human mind and behavior, to be used in new Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems. Those sub-parts present the results of experiments conducted in two fields that study Culture and its influence on the human mind’s functions: Cultural Neuroscience and Cross-Cultural Psychology. In this era of globalization, people from different countries and cultures have the opportunity to interact directly or indirectly in a wide variety of contexts. Despite differences in their ways of thinking and reasoning, their behaviors, their values, lifestyles, customs and habits, languages, religions – in a word, their cultures – they must be able to collaborate on projects, to understand each other’s views, to communicate in such a way that they don’t offend each other, to anticipate the effects of their actions on others, and so on. As such, it is of primary importance to understand how culture affects people’s mental activities, such as perception, interpretation, reasoning, emotion and behavior, in order to anticipate possible misunderstandings due to differences in handling the same situation, and to try and resolve them. Artificial Intelligence, and more specifically, the field of Intelligent Systems design, aims at building systems that mimic the behavior of human beings in order to complete tasks more efficiently than humans could by themselves. Consequently, in the last decade, experts and scholars in the field of Intelligent Systems have been increasingly tackling the notion of cultural awareness. A Culturally-Aware Intelligent System can be defined as a system where Culture-related or, more generally, socio-cultural information is modeled and used to design the human-machine interface, or to provide support with the task carried out by the system, be it reasoning, simulation or any other task involving cultural knowledge.
Download or read book Nuclear Deterrence in a Multipolar World written by Stephen J Cimbala and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The view that America and Russia have burned their candles on security cooperation with respect to nuclear weapons is simply mistaken. This timely study identifies twelve themes or issue areas that must be addressed by the United States and Russia if they are to provide shared, successful leadership in the management of nuclear world order. Designed as supplementary reading in upper division and graduate courses in national security policy, defense, and nuclear arms control, it is also suitable for courses taught at military staff and command colleges and-or war colleges.
Download or read book Defending the Arsenal written by Adam B. Lowther and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-09-19 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume takes an unashamed pro-nuclear modernization position and argues for designing and fielding new nuclear warheads and delivery systems (submarine, ICBM, and bomber) while also arguing against signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty or agreeing to further reductions in the nuclear arsenal. It also argues that nuclear deterrence remains as relevant today, perhaps more, than it was during the Cold War.
Download or read book Object Oriented Simulation with Hierarchical Modular Models written by Bernard P. Zeigler and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Object-Oriented Simulation with Hierarchical, Modular Models: Intelligent Agents and Endomorphic Systems describes an approach to object-oriented discrete event simulation and the concepts of hierarchical, modular model construction, The implementation of the concepts of multifaceted modeling methodology in the DEVS-Scheme modeling and simulation environment is discussed. The use of the DEVS-Scheme environment in modeling artificial intelligent agents is also considered, along with the concept of endomorphism to characterize the application of self-embedded models, including models of self. Comprised of 15 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the dimensions of knowledge representation in simulation environments, followed by a discussion on object-oriented programming as well as the concepts of modular, hierarchical models and the system entity structure. Subsequent chapters focus on digraph-models and experimental frames; DEVS formalism and DEVS-Scheme simulation environment; a model base for simple multi-computer architectures; and rule-based specification of atomic models. Model bases in endomorphic systems and intelligent agents are also examined. This monograph will be of interest to simulation theorists as well as practitioners and researchers in the fields of artificial intelligence, systems engineering, computer science and engineering, and operations research.
Download or read book Deterrence written by Austin G. Long and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines six decades of RAND Corporation research on deterrence for lessons relevant to the current and future strategic environments.
Download or read book Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century written by Stephen J. Cimbala and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-09-10 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book looks at the prospects for international cooperation over nuclear weapons proliferation in the 21st century. Nuclear weapons served as stabilizing forces during the Cold War, or the First Nuclear Age, on account of their capability for destruction, the fear that this created among politicians and publics, and the domination of the nuclear world order by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the potential for nuclear weapons acquisition among revisionist states, or even non-state actors including terrorists, creates the possibility of a 'wolves eat dogs' phenomenon in the present century. In the 21st century, three forces threaten to undo or weaken the long nuclear peace and fast-forward states into a new and more dangerous situation: the existence of large US and Russian nuclear weapons arsenals; the potential for new technologies, including missile defenses and long-range, precision conventional weapons, and a collapse or atrophy of the nuclear nonproliferation regime, and the opening of the door for nuclear weapons to spread among more than the currently acknowledged nuclear states. This book explains how these three 'weakening' forces interact with one another and with US and Russian policy-making in order to create an environment of large possibilities for cooperative security - but also of considerable danger. Instead, the choices made by military planners and policy-makers will create an early twenty-first century story privileging nuclear stability or chaos. The US and Russia can, and should, make incremental progress in arms control and nonproliferation. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation and arms control, strategic studies, international security and IR in general. Stephen J. Cimbala is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University. He is the author of numerous works in the fields of international security, defense studies, nuclear arms control and other topics. He has consulted for various US government agencies and defense contractors.
Download or read book Studying First Strike Stability with Knowledge Based Models of Human Decisionmaking written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The RAND Corporation and the RAND/UCLA Center for the Study of Soviet International Behavior (CSSIB) have a joint project for the Carnegie Corporation entitled Avoiding Nuclear War: Managing Conflict in the Nuclear Age. This project has two broad objectives: to understand better the process of escalation from peace through general nuclear war; and to identify and assess, while protecting vital national interests, unilateral and cooperative measures that might inhibit unintended escalation or improve prospects for reversing or controlling escalation once it has begun. This report contributes to the larger project by describing efforts of the author and colleagues in the RAND Strategy Assessment center to develop and use knowledge based analytic models of national-command-level decisionmaking for better understanding and communicating issues of deterrence, escalation, and war termination. The intended audience includes researchers and government figures interested in crisis decision making, related command and control problems, and a framework for thinking about first strike stability that integrates both force-posture factors and behavioral factors.
Download or read book Central Region Stability in a Deep cuts Regime written by Paul K. Davis and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Science Trends written by and published by . This book was released on 1989-12 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
