Download or read book Statistically Sound Indicators For Financial Market Prediction written by Timothy Masters and published by . This book was released on 2019-10-22 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In my decades of professional experience as a statistical consultant in the field of financial market trading, the single most important lesson that I've learned about trading is this: the quality of the indicators is vastly more important than the quality of the trading algorithm or predictive model. If you are sloppy about your indicator computation, no high-tech model or algorithm is going to bail you out. Garbage in, garbage out still rules. This book presents numerous traditional and modern indicators that have been shown to carry significant predictive information. But it will do far more than just that. In addition to a wealth of useful indicators, you will see the following issues discussed: There are simple tests that let you measure the potential information-carrying capacity of an indicator. If your proposed indicator fails this information-capacity test, you should consider revising it. This book describes simple transformations that raise the information-carrying capacity of your indicators and make them more useful for algorithmic trading. You will learn how to locate the regions in your indicator's domain where maximum predictive power occurs so that you can focus on these important values. You will learn how to compute statistically sound probabilities to help you decide whether the performance of an indicator is legitimate or just the product of random good luck. Most traditional indicators examine one market at a time. But you will learn how examining pairs of markets, or even large collections of markets simultaneously, can provide valuable indicators that quantify complex inter-market relationships. Govinda Khalsa devised a powerful indicator called the Follow-Through Index which reveals how likely it is that an existing trend will continue. This indicator is extremely useful to trend-following traders, but due to its complexity it is not widely employed. This book presents its essential theory and implementation in C++. Gary Anderson developed a detailed and profound theory of market behavior that he calls The JANUS Factor. This theory enables computation of several powerful indicators that tell us, among other things, when trading opportunities are most likely to be profitable and when we should stay out of the market. This book provides the fundamental theory behind The JANUS Factor along with extensive C++ code. Whether you compute a few indicators and trade by watching their plots on a computer screen, or do simple automated algorithmic trading, or employ sophisticated predictive models, this book provides tools that help you take your trading to a higher, more profitable level.

Download or read book Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments written by David Aronson and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book serves two purposes. First, it teaches the importance of using sophisticated yet accessible statistical methods to evaluate a trading system before it is put to real-world use. In order to accommodate readers having limited mathematical background, these techniques are illustrated with step-by-step examples using actual market data, and all examples are explained in plain language. Second, this book shows how the free program TSSB (Trading System Synthesis & Boosting) can be used to develop and test trading systems. The machine learning and statistical algorithms available in TSSB go far beyond those available in other off-the-shelf development software. Intelligent use of these state-of-the-art techniques greatly improves the likelihood of obtaining a trading system whose impressive backtest results continue when the system is put to use in a trading account. Among other things, this book will teach the reader how to: Estimate future performance with rigorous algorithms Evaluate the influence of good luck in backtests Detect overfitting before deploying your system Estimate performance bias due to model fitting and selection of seemingly superior systems Use state-of-the-art ensembles of models to form consensus trade decisions Build optimal portfolios of trading systems and rigorously test their expected performance Search thousands of markets to find subsets that are especially predictable Create trading systems that specialize in specific market regimes such as trending/flat or high/low volatility More information on the TSSB program can be found at TSSBsoftware dot com.

Download or read book Evidence Based Technical Analysis written by David Aronson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-11 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining.

Download or read book Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures written by John F. Ehlers and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-01-06 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cutting-edge insight from the leader in trading technology In Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures, noted technical analyst John Ehlers continues to enlighten readers on the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. With application of his engineering expertise, Ehlers explains the latest, most advanced techniques that help traders predict stock and futures markets with surgical precision. Unique new indicators and automatic trading systems are described in text as well as Easy Language and EFS code. The approaches are universal and robust enough to be applied to a full range of market conditions. John F. Ehlers (Santa Barbara, CA) is President of MESA Software (www.mesasoftware.com) and has also written Rocket Science for Traders (0-471-40567-1) as well as numerous articles for Futures and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazines.

Download or read book Cybernetic Trading Strategies written by Murray A. Ruggiero and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ein Überblick über die aktuellsten Technologien zum Aufbau einer Handelsstrategie: neuronale Netzwerke, genetische Algorithmen, Expertensysteme, Fuzzy logic und statistische Mustererkennung. Gezeigt wird, wie diese neuen Methoden in klassische Analysenverfahren integriert werden können. Auch Erläuterungen zur Prüfung und Bewertung existierender Systeme kommen nicht zu kurz.

Download or read book Cycle Analytics for Traders Downloadable Software written by John F. Ehlers and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-11-18 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A technical resource for self-directed traders who want to understand the scientific underpinnings of the filters and indicators used in trading decisions This is a technical resource book written for self-directed traders who want to understand the scientific underpinnings of the filters and indicators they use in their trading decisions. There is plenty of theory and years of research behind the unique solutions provided in this book, but the emphasis is on simplicity rather than mathematical purity. In particular, the solutions use a pragmatic approach to attain effective trading results. Cycle Analytics for Traders will allow traders to think of their indicators and trading strategies in the frequency domain as well as their motions in the time domain. This new viewpoint will enable them to select the most efficient filter lengths for the job at hand. Shows an awareness of Spectral Dilation, and how to eliminate it or to use it to your advantage Discusses how to use Automatic Gain Control (AGC) to normalize indicator amplitude swings Explains thinking of prices in the frequency domain as well as in the time domain Creates an awareness that all indicators are statistical rather than absolute, as implied by their single line displays Sheds light on several advanced cookbook filters Showcases new advanced indicators like the Even Better Sinewave and Decycler Indicators Explains how to use transforms to improve the display and interpretation of indicators

Download or read book The Janus Factor written by Gary Edwin Anderson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-11-19 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tap into feedback loops to unravel market trends and discover profitable trading opportunities The Janus Factor presents an innovative theory that describes how feedback loops determine market behavior. The book clearly shows how the theory can be applied to make trading more profitable. The metaphor of the two-faced god Janus is used to reflect alternating market environments, one dominated by trend followers and the other by contrarian bargain hunters. In this book, author Gary Anderson puts forth a systematic view of how positive and negative feedback drive capital flows in the stock market and how those flows tend to favor either sector leaders or sector laggards at different times. Discusses how to find better performing stocks Outlines when and how to use momentum strategies for big profits Addresses when and how to use contrarian strategies Gary Anderson is the winner of the 2003 Charles H. Dow Award, presented by the Market Technicians Association Intellectually challenging and highly practical, The Janus Factor offers insight into market behavior and new methods for capturing stock market trends.

Download or read book Testing and Tuning Market Trading Systems written by Timothy Masters and published by Apress. This book was released on 2018-10-26 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Build, test, and tune financial, insurance or other market trading systems using C++ algorithms and statistics. You’ve had an idea and have done some preliminary experiments, and it looks promising. Where do you go from here? Well, this book discusses and dissects this case study approach. Seemingly good backtest performance isn't enough to justify trading real money. You need to perform rigorous statistical tests of the system's validity. Then, if basic tests confirm the quality of your idea, you need to tune your system, not just for best performance, but also for robust behavior in the face of inevitable market changes. Next, you need to quantify its expected future behavior, assessing how bad its real-life performance might actually be, and whether you can live with that. Finally, you need to find its theoretical performance limits so you know if its actual trades conform to this theoretical expectation, enabling you to dump the system if it does not live up to expectations. This book does not contain any sure-fire, guaranteed-riches trading systems. Those are a dime a dozen... But if you have a trading system, this book will provide you with a set of tools that will help you evaluate the potential value of your system, tweak it to improve its profitability, and monitor its on-going performance to detect deterioration before it fails catastrophically. Any serious market trader would do well to employ the methods described in this book. What You Will Learn See how the 'spaghetti-on-the-wall' approach to trading system development can be done legitimatelyDetect overfitting early in developmentEstimate the probability that your system's backtest results could have been due to just good luckRegularize a predictive model so it automatically selects an optimal subset of indicator candidatesRapidly find the global optimum for any type of parameterized trading systemAssess the ruggedness of your trading system against market changesEnhance the stationarity and information content of your proprietary indicatorsNest one layer of walkforward analysis inside another layer to account for selection bias in complex trading systemsCompute a lower bound on your system's mean future performanceBound expected periodic returns to detect on-going system deterioration before it becomes severeEstimate the probability of catastrophic drawdown Who This Book Is For Experienced C++ programmers, developers, and software engineers. Prior experience with rigorous statistical procedures to evaluate and maximize the quality of systems is recommended as well.

Download or read book Trading on Sentiment written by Richard L. Peterson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-03-04 with total page 317 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In his debut book on trading psychology, Inside the Investor’s Brain, Richard Peterson demonstrated how managing emotions helps top investors outperform. Now, in Trading on Sentiment, he takes you inside the science of crowd psychology and demonstrates that not only do price patterns exist, but the most predictable ones are rooted in our shared human nature. Peterson’s team developed text analysis engines to mine data - topics, beliefs, and emotions - from social media. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis. In this groundbreaking guide, he shows you how they did it and why it worked. Applying algorithms to social media data opened up an unprecedented world of insight into the elusive patterns of investor sentiment driving repeating market moves. Inside, you gain a privileged look at the media content that moves investors, along with time-tested techniques to make the smart moves—even when it doesn’t feel right. This book digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it. It provides the expert guidance you need to develop a competitive edge, manage risk, and overcome our sometimes-flawed human nature. Learn how traders are using sentiment analysis and statistical tools to extract value from media data in order to: Foresee important price moves using an understanding of how investors process news. Make more profitable investment decisions by identifying when prices are trending, when trends are turning, and when sharp market moves are likely to reverse. Use media sentiment to improve value and momentum investing returns. Avoid the pitfalls of unique price patterns found in commodities, currencies, and during speculative bubbles Trading on Sentiment deepens your understanding of markets and supplies you with the tools and techniques to beat global markets— whether they’re going up, down, or sideways.

Download or read book Rocket Science for Traders written by John F. Ehlers and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2001-07-30 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predict the future more accurately in today's difficult trading times The Holy Grail of trading is knowing what the markets will do next. Technical analysis is the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. Some systems work well when markets are "trending," and some work well when they are "cycling," going neither up nor down, but sideways. In Trading with Signal Analysis, noted technical analyst John Ehlers applies his engineering expertise to develop techniques that predict the future more accurately in these times that are otherwise so difficult to trade. Since cycles and trends exist in every time horizon, these methods are useful even in the strongest bull--or bear--market. John F. Ehlers (Goleta, CA) speaks internationally on the subject of cycles in the market and has expanded the scope of his contributions to technical analysis through the application of scientific digital signal processing techniques.

Download or read book misLeading Indicators written by Philip Green and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2012-02-22 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reveals the hidden and potentially misleading nature of measurements, empowering readers to avoid making critical business decisions that are harmful, unreasonable, unwarranted, or plain wrong. Decision makers in business and government are more reliant than ever on measurements, such as business performance indicators, bond ratings, Six-Sigma indicators, stock ratings, opinion polls, and market research. Yet many popular statistical and business books and courses relating to measurement are based on flawed principles, leading managers to the wrong conclusions—and ultimately, the wrong decisions. misLeading Indicators: How to Reliably Measure Your Business provides something unique and invaluable: trustworthy tools for judging measurements. Each chapter illustrates the four key principles for reliable measurements: sufficient background information, accuracy and precision, reasonable inferences, and reality checks in different situations. After the three fundamental methods of measuring are defined, the authors expand to the application and interpretation of measurements in specific areas, including business performance, risk management, process, control, finance, and economics. This book supplies essential information for managers in business and government who depend on accurate information to run their organizations, as well as the consultants who advise them.

Download or read book The Signal and the Noise written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Download or read book Permutation and Randomization Tests for Trading System Development written by Timothy Masters and published by . This book was released on 2020-02-12 with total page 173 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides the trading system developer with a powerful set of statistical tools for measuring vital aspects of performance that are ignored by most developers. All algorithms include intuitive justification, basic theory, all relevant equations, and highly commented C++ code for complete programs that run in a Windows Command Console. Reprogramming them in other languages should be easy, given the detailed explanations of each algorithm. The following topics are covered: Testing for overfitting at the earliest possible stage Evaluating the luckiness-versus-skill of a fully developed system before deploying it Testing the effectiveness and reliability of a trading system factory Removing selection bias when screening a large number of indicators Probability bounds for future mean returns Bounding typical and catastrophic future drawdowns Is the best indicator or model in a competition truly the best, or just the luckiest? Which markets provide truly superior profits for your trading system? What holding time for your system provides the best risk/return performance?

Download or read book Predicting Forex and Stock Market with Fractal Pattern written by Young Ho Seo and published by www.algotrading-investment.com. This book was released on 2020-04-09 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About this book This book provides you the powerful and brand new knowledge on predicting financial market that we have discovered in several years of our own research and development work. This book will help you to turn your intuition into the scientific prediction method. In the course of recognizing the price patterns in the chart of Forex and Stock market, you should be realized that it was your intuition working at the background for you. The geometric prediction devised in this book will show you the scientific way to predict the financial market using your intuition. Many of us made a mistake of viewing the financial market with deterministic cycle. Even though we knew that market would not show us such a simple prediction pattern, we never stop using the concept of deterministic cycle to predict the financial market, for example, using Fourier transform, and other similar techniques. Why is that so? The reason is simple. It is because no one presented an effective way of predicting stochastic cycle. Stochastic cycle is the true face of the financial market because many variables in the market are suppressing the predictable cycle with fixed time interval. So how we predict the stochastic cycle present in the financial market? The key to answer is the Fractal Pattern and Fractal Wave. The geometric prediction on Fractal Wave solves the puzzles of the stochastic cycle modelling problem together. In another words, your intuition, more precisely your capability to recognize geometric shape, is more powerful than any other technical indicators available in the market. Hence, the geometric prediction, which comes from your intuition, would maximize your ability to trade in the financial market. In this book, Geometric prediction is described as the combined ability to recognize the geometric regularity and statistical regularity from the chart. We provide the examples of geometric regularity and statistical regularity. In addition, we will show you how these regularities are related to your intuition. The chart patterns covered in this book include support, resistance, Fibonacci Price pattern, Harmonic Pattern, Falling Wedge pattern, Rising Wedge pattern, and Gann Angles with probability. We use these chart patterns to detect geometric regularity. Then, we use the turning point probability as the mean of detecting statistical regularity. In our trading, we combine both to improve the trading performance.

Download or read book The Universal Tactics of Successful Trend Trading written by Brent Penfold and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get a flying headstart on trend trading with this comprehensive how-to guide The Universal Tactics of Successful Trend Trading: Finding Opportunity in Uncertainty delivers powerful and practical advice for the serious trend trader. Using the principles identified in The Universal Principles of Successful Trading, author Brent Penfold shows curious investors how to become a long-term winner with tried-and-true trend trading methodologies. The book includes in-depth and comprehensive treatments of topics like: · Why trend trading is so appealing · Popular and effective trend trading strategies · How to measure risk · Common trend trading mistakes and how to avoid them Investors and readers will also discover the importance of risk, and how to judge outcomes and strategies on a risk-adjusted basis. Perfect for anyone interested in trading successfully, The Universal Tactics of Successful Trend Trading is a key strategy guide that belongs on the shelf of anyone involved in the buying and selling of financial securities.

Download or read book Advanced Algorithms for Neural Networks written by Timothy Masters and published by . This book was released on 1995-04-17 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is one of the first books to offer practical in-depth coverage of the Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and several other neural nets and their related algorithms critical to solving some of today's toughest real-world computing problems. Includes complete C++ source code for basic and advanced applications.

Download or read book Practical Neural Network Recipes in C written by Timothy Masters and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1993 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: