Download or read book State Dependent Threshold Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models written by Michael Dueker and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this article, we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent contemporaneous-threshold STAR and logistic STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of US short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.
Download or read book A Comparative Study of Threshold Autoregressive Smooth Transition Regression and Markov Switching Autoregressive Models on Stock Price Behaviour written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Threshold Autoregressive -- Smooth Transition Regression -- Markov Switching Autoregressive Models -- Stock Price Behaviour.
Download or read book Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model A study of production index of production sector in Germany written by Behailu Shiferaw Benti and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2019-07-09 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic Paper from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Miscellaneous, grade: 1.3, University of Wuppertal, language: English, abstract: The main aim of this seminar is to define, examine and present Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model (STAR) which is a model used to analyze nonlinear time-series economic data with regime-switching. In going forward, the overall structure of the seminar is designed to study the nonlinear features of production sector production index of Germany using data from January 1991 to April 2017. The author did first a Chow Test to evidence the existence of a data structural breakpoint. Then a model specification procedure given by Teräsvirta (1994) was followed. The author used, accordingly, three steps to specify the model. First, a linear AR model was developed using the data. Secondly, a linearity test against the STAR model was carried out. Once a test of the null hypothesis of linearity against non-linearity is rejected by the carried out Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test, the delay parameter d was determined. Afterwards, a choice between the LSTAR and the ESTAR model was made using a sequence of tests. Finally, the estimation of the model is done. As the results from the set of tests indicate, the STAR model is found to be appropriate for modeling and analyzing the data.
Download or read book Smooth Transition Spatial Autoregressive Models written by Bo Pieter Johannes Andree and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a new model for spatial time series in which cross-sectional dependence varies nonlinearly over space by means of smooth transitions. We refer to our model as the Smooth Transition Spatial Autoregressive (ST-SAR). We establish consistency and asymptotic Gaussianity for the MLE under misspecification and provide additional conditions for geometric ergodicity of the model. Simulation results justify the use of limit theory in empirically relevant settings. The model is applied to study spatio-temporal dynamics in two cases that differ in spatial and temporal extent. We study clustering in urban densities in a large number of neighborhoods in the Netherlands over a 10-year period. We pay particular focus to the advantages of the ST-SAR as an alternative to linear spatial models. In our second study, we apply the ST-SAR to monthly long term interest rates of 15 European sovereigns over 25-year period. We develop a strategy to assess financial stability across the Eurozone based on attraction of individual sovereigns toward the common stochastic trend. Our estimates reveal that stability attained a low during the Greek sovereign debt crisis, and that the Eurozone has remained to struggle in attaining stability since the onset of the financial crisis. The results suggest that the European Monetary System has not fully succeeded in aligning the economies of Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Greece with the rest of the Eurozone, while attraction between other sovereigns has continued to increase. In our applications linearity of spatial dependence is overwhelmingly rejected in terms of model fit and forecast accuracy, estimates of control variables improve, and residual correlation is better neutralized.
Download or read book Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting written by and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonlinear Econometric Modeling in Time Series written by William A. Barnett and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-05-22 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents some of the more recent developments in nonlinear time series, including Bayesian analysis and cointegration tests.
Download or read book Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models written by Jun Ma and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-24 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinear models have been used extensively in the areas of economics and finance. Recent literature on the topic has shown that a large number of series exhibit nonlinear dynamics as opposed to the alternative--linear dynamics. Incorporating these concepts involves deriving and estimating nonlinear time series models, and these have typically taken the form of Threshold Autoregression (TAR) models, Exponential Smooth Transition (ESTAR) models, and Markov Switching (MS) models, among several others. This edited volume provides a timely overview of nonlinear estimation techniques, offering new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. It features cutting-edge research from leading academics in economics, finance, and business management, and will focus on such topics as Zero-Information-Limit-Conditions, using Markov Switching Models to analyze economics series, and how best to distinguish between competing nonlinear models. Principles and techniques in this book will appeal to econometricians, finance professors teaching quantitative finance, researchers, and graduate students interested in learning how to apply advances in nonlinear time series modeling to solve complex problems in economics and finance.
Download or read book Analysis of Financial Time Series written by Ruey S. Tsay and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-26 with total page 724 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a broad, mature, and systematic introduction to current financial econometric models and their applications to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series The return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods Key features of the new edition include additional coverage of modern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realized volatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition from S-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets. The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledge of financial time series, introduce some statistical tools useful for analyzing these series and gain experience in financial applications of various econometric methods.
Download or read book Non Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-07-27 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2000 volume reviews non-linear time series models, and their applications to financial markets.
Download or read book Determing the Number of Regimes in a Threshold Autoregressive Model Using Smooth Transition Autoregressions written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we propose a method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models using smooth transition autoregression as a tool. As the smooth transition model is just an approximation to the threshold autoregressive one, no asymptotic properties are claimed for the proposed method. Tests available for testing the adequacy of a smooth transition autoregressive model are applied sequentially to determine the number of regimes. A simulation study is performed in order to find out the finite-sample properties of the procedure and to compare it with two other procedures available in the literature. We find that our method works reasonably well for both single and multiple threshold models. -- Model specification ; model selection criterion ; nonlinear modelling ; sequential testing ; switching regression
Download or read book The Fiscal State Dependent Effects of Capital Income Tax Cuts written by Alexandra Fotiou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using the post-WWII data of U.S. federal corporate income tax changes, within a Smooth Transition VAR, this paper finds that the output effect of capital income tax cuts is government debt-dependent: it is less expansionary when debt is high than when it is low. To explore the mechanisms that can drive this fiscal state-dependent tax effect, the paper uses a DSGE model with regime-switching fiscal policy and finds that a capital income tax cut is stimulative to the extent that it is unlikely to result in a future fiscal adjustment. As government debt increases to a sufficiently high level, the probability of future fiscal adjustments starts rising, and the expansionary effects of a capital income tax cut can diminish substantially, whether the expected adjustments are through a policy reversal or a consumption tax increase. Also, a capital income tax cut need not always have large revenue feedback effects as suggested in the literature.
Download or read book A Companion to Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Download or read book Encyclopaedia of Mathematics written by Michiel Hazewinkel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 595 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first Supplementary volume to Kluwer's highly acclaimed Encyclopaedia of Mathematics. This additional volume contains nearly 600 new entries written by experts and covers developments and topics not included in the already published 10-volume set. These entries have been arranged alphabetically throughout. A detailed index is included in the book. This Supplementary volume enhances the existing 10-volume set. Together, these eleven volumes represent the most authoritative, comprehensive up-to-date Encyclopaedia of Mathematics available.
Download or read book Diagnostic Checks in Time Series written by Wai Keung Li and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-12-29 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diagnostic checking is an important step in the modeling process. But while the literature on diagnostic checks is quite extensive and many texts on time series modeling are available, it still remains difficult to find a book that adequately covers methods for performing diagnostic checks. Diagnostic Checks in Time Series helps to fill that
Download or read book Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics Volume 3 written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-12-17 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents the third of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. This book offers a full treatment of the interlinkages between the real and the financial markets, including an analysis of banking, credit, and endogenous money and asset markets. It remains critical of quite frequently used conventional macro models that have dropped the tradition of studying the macroeconomic feedback channels, well-known in the history of macroeconomics. Those feedback mechanisms are known to have the potential for instabilities with respect to real markets, price dynamics and financial markets. In this volume a particular emphasis is given to the financial-real interaction. The research in this book with its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. The main conclusion of the work is that policy makers need to reconsider Keynesian ideas, but in the modern form in which they are expressed in this volume. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics will be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. This book will also engage central bankers and macroeconomic policy makers.
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Download or read book Econometric Modelling with Time Series written by Vance Martin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-12-28 with total page 982 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalised method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.
