Download or read book Spatial Regresssion Methods Capture Prediction Uncertainty in Species Distribution Model Projections Through Time written by Alan Karl Swanson and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Species distribution models (SDMs) relate observed locations of a species to climate, and are used for projecting the fate of a species under climate change scenarios. To be useful in a decision-making context, the uncertainty associated with these projections must be known. However, the uncertainty associated with SDM projections is largely ignored, perhaps because many current methods have been shown to produce biased estimates. Failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error explains much of this bias. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to account for SAC through the inclusion of a spatially structured random intercept, interpreted to account for the effect of missing predictors. This framework promises a more realistic representation of parameter and prediction uncertainty. My work assesses the ability of GLMMs and a conventional SDM approach, based on generalized linear models (GLM), to produce accurate projections and estimates of prediction uncertainty. Bayesian methods were used to fit models to historical (1928-1940) observations for 99 woody plant species in California, USA, and assessed using modern "temporally independent" validation data (2000-2005). A set of climatic water balance metrics were calculated to inform the models. GLMMs provided a closer fit to historic data, had fewer significant covariates, were better able to nearly eliminate spatial autocorrelation of residual error, and had larger credible intervals for projections than GLMs. The accuracy of projections was similar between methods but the GLMMs better quantified projection uncertainty. Additionally, the GLMMs produced more conservative estimates of species range size and range size change than the GLMs. I conclude that the GLMM error structure allows for a more realistic characterization of SDM uncertainty. This is critical for conservation applications that rely on robust assessments of projection uncertainty.

Download or read book Predicting Species Occurrences written by J. Michael Scott and published by Island Press. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 940 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predictions about where different species are, where they are not, and how they move across a landscape or respond to human activities -- if timber is harvested, for instance, or stream flow altered -- are important aspects of the work of wildlife biologists, land managers, and the agencies and policymakers that govern natural resources. Despite the increased use and importance of model predictions, these predictions are seldom tested and have unknown levels of accuracy.Predicting Species Occurrences addresses those concerns, highlighting for managers and researchers the strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, as well as the magnitude of the research required to improve or test predictions of currently used models. The book is an outgrowth of an international symposium held in October 1999 that brought together scientists and researchers at the forefront of efforts to process information about species at different spatial and temporal scales. It is a comprehensive reference that offers an exhaustive treatment of the subject, with 65 chapters by leading experts from around the world that: review the history of the theory and practice of modeling and present a standard terminology examine temporal and spatial scales in terms of their influence on patterns and processes of species distribution offer detailed discussions of state-of-the-art modeling tools and descriptions of methods for assessing model accuracy discuss how to predict species presence and abundance present examples of how spatially explicit data on demographics can provide important information for managers An introductory chapter by Michael A. Huston examines the ecological context in which predictions of species occurrences are made, and a concluding chapter by John A. Wiens offers an insightful review and synthesis of the topics examined along with guidance for future directions and cautions regarding misuse of models. Other contributors include Michael P. Austin, Barry R. Noon, Alan H. Fielding, Michael Goodchild, Brian A. Maurer, John T. Rotenberry, Paul Angermeier, Pierre R. Vernier, and more than a hundred others.Predicting Species Occurrences offers important new information about many of the topics raised in the seminal volume Wildlife 2000 (University of Wisconsin Press, 1986) and will be the standard reference on this subject for years to come. Its state-of-the-art assessment will play a key role in guiding the continued development and application of tools for making accurate predictions and is an indispensable volume for anyone engaged in species management or conservation.

Download or read book Predictive Species and Habitat Modeling in Landscape Ecology written by C. Ashton Drew and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-25 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most projects in Landscape Ecology, at some point, define a species-habitat association. These models are inherently spatial, dealing with landscapes and their configurations. Whether coding behavioral rules for dispersal of simulated organisms through simulated landscapes, or designing the sampling extent of field surveys and experiments in real landscapes, landscape ecologists must make assumptions about how organisms experience and utilize the landscape. These convenient working postulates allow modelers to project the model in time and space, yet rarely are they explicitly considered. The early years of landscape ecology necessarily focused on the evolution of effective data sources, metrics, and statistical approaches that could truly capture the spatial and temporal patterns and processes of interest. Now that these tools are well established, we reflect on the ecological theories that underpin the assumptions commonly made during species distribution modeling and mapping. This is crucial for applying models to questions of global sustainability. Due to the inherent use of GIS for much of this kind of research, and as several authors’ research involves the production of multicolored map figures, there would be an 8-page color insert. Additional color figures could be made available through a digital archive, or by cost contributions of the chapter authors. Where applicable, would be relevant chapters’ GIS data and model code available through a digital archive. The practice of data and code sharing is becoming standard in GIS studies, is an inherent method of this book, and will serve to add additional research value to the book for both academic and practitioner audiences.

Download or read book Mapping Species Distributions written by Janet Franklin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-01-07 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maps of species' distributions or habitat suitability are required for many aspects of environmental research, resource management and conservation planning. These include biodiversity assessment, reserve design, habitat management and restoration, species and habitat conservation plans and predicting the effects of environmental change on species and ecosystems. The proliferation of methods and uncertainty regarding their effectiveness can be daunting to researchers, resource managers and conservation planners alike. Franklin summarises the methods used in species distribution modeling (also called niche modeling) and presents a framework for spatial prediction of species distributions based on the attributes (space, time, scale) of the data and questions being asked. The framework links theoretical ecological models of species distributions to spatial data on species and environment, and statistical models used for spatial prediction. Providing practical guidelines to students, researchers and practitioners in a broad range of environmental sciences including ecology, geography, conservation biology, and natural resources management.

Download or read book Invasive Species written by Andrew P. Robinson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-06-08 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the latest risk-based techniques to protect national interests from invasive pests and pathogens before, at and within national borders.

Download or read book Data Fusion and Spatio temporal Approaches to Model Species Distribution written by Narmadha Meenabhashini Mohankumar and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used in ecology, biogeography, and wildlife management to learn about the distribution of species across space and time. Determining the species-habitat relationships and the distributional pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. I propose approaches to address some of the most pressing issues encountered in studies of species distributions and contribute towards improving predictions and inferences from SDMs. First, I present a modeling framework to model occupancy data that accounts for both traditional and nontraditional spatial dependence as well as false absences. Occupancy data are used to estimate and map the true presence of a species, which may depend on biotic and abiotic factors as well as spatial autocorrelation. Traditionally, spatial autocorrelation is accounted for by using a correlated normally distributed site-level random effect, which might be incapable of modeling nontraditional spatial dependence such as discontinuities and abrupt transitions. Machine learning approaches have the potential to model nontraditional spatial dependence, but these approaches do not account for observer errors such as false absences. I combine the flexibility of Bayesian hierarchal modeling and machine learning approaches and present a modeling framework to account for both traditional and nontraditional spatial dependence and false absences. I illustrate the framework using six synthetic data sets containing traditional and nontraditional spatial dependence and then apply the approach to understand the spatial distribution of Thomson's gazelle (Eudorcas thomsonii) in Tanzania and sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps) in Tasmania. Second, I develop a model-based approach for data fusion of distance sampling (DS) and capture-recapture (CR) data. DS and CR are two widely collected data types to learn about species-habitat relationships and abundance; still, they are seldomly used in SDMs due to the lack of spatial coverage. However, data fusion of the sources of data can increase spatial coverage, which can reduce parameter uncertainty and make predictions more accurate, and therefore, can be used for species distribution modeling. My modeling approach accounts for two common missing data issues: 1) missing individuals that are missing not at random (MNAR) and 2) partially missing location information. Using a simulation experiment, I evaluated the performance of the modeling approach and compared it to existing approaches that use ad-hoc methods to account for missing data issues. I demonstrated my approach using data collected for Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum) in north-eastern Kansas, USA. Third, I extend my data fusion approach to a spatio-temporal modeling framework to investigate the influence of the temporal support in spatio-temporal point process models to model species distribution. Temporal dynamics of ecological processes are complex, and their influence on species-habitat relationships and abundance operate in multiple spatio-temporal scales. Spatio-temporal point process models are widely used to model species-habitat relationships and estimate abundance across multiple spatio-temporal scales; however, the robustness of the models to changing temporal scales is rarely studied. Understanding the temporal dynamics of ecological processes across the entirety of spatio-temporal scales is key to learning about species' distribution. Therefore, investigating the influence of temporal support on the robustness of spatio-temporal point processes to model species distributions is needed. In my approach, I combine DS and CR data in a spatio-temporal point process modeling framework and investigate the robustness of the model to changing temporal scales. My fused data spatio-temporal model alleviates constraints in individual data sources such as lack of spatio-temporal coverage and enables the study of complex phenomena on multiple-scale species-habitat relationships and abundance. To investigate the impact of temporal support on models' robustness, I conducted a simulation experiment. Then, I illustrate the influence of temporal support to model species-habitat relationships and abundance using data on Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum) in north-eastern Kansas, USA.

Download or read book Issues in Global Environment Globalization and Global Change Research 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 706 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in Global Environment—Globalization and Global Change Research: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Dendrochronologia. The editors have built Issues in Global Environment—Globalization and Global Change Research: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Dendrochronologia in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in Global Environment—Globalization and Global Change Research: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Download or read book Invasion Dynamics written by Cang Hui and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Humans have moved organisms around the world for centuries but it is only relatively recently that invasion ecology has grown into a mainstream research field. This book examines both the spread and impact dynamics of invasive species, placing the science of invasion biology on a new, more rigorous, theoretical footing, and proposing a concept of adaptive networks as the foundation for future research. Biological invasions are considered not as simple actions of invaders and reactions of invaded ecosystems, but as co-evolving complex adaptive systems with emergent features of network complexity and invasibility. Invasion Dynamics focuses on the ecology of invasive species and their impacts in recipient social-ecological systems. It discusses not only key advances and challenges within the traditional domain of invasion ecology, but introduces approaches, concepts, and insights from many other disciplines such as complexity science, systems science, and ecology more broadly. It will be of great value to invasion biologists analyzing spread and/or impact dynamics as well as other ecologists interested in spread processes or habitat management.

Download or read book Joint Species Distribution Modelling written by Otso Ovaskainen and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-11 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive account of joint species distribution modelling, covering statistical analyses in light of modern community ecology theory.

Download or read book Spatial Regression Models written by Michael Don Ward and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assuming no prior knowledge this book is geared toward social science readers, unlike other volumes on this topic. The text illustrates concepts using well known international, comparative, and national examples of spatial regression analysis. Each example is presented alongside relevant data and code, which is also available on a Web site maintained by the authors.

Download or read book Predicting and Mitigating the Impacts of Global Change on Species Distributions written by Heather M. Kharouba and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Integrating Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling and Statistical Phylogeography to Inform Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Species Distributions written by Brenna R. Forester and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Improving Species Distribution Models with Bias Correction and Geographically Weighted Regression written by Richard Inman and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work investigates the effects of non-random sampling on our understanding of species distributions and their niches. In its most general form, bias is systematic error that can obscure interpretation of analytical results by skewing samples away from the average condition of the system they represent. Here I use species distribution modelling (SDM), virtual species, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to explore how sampling bias can alter our perception of broad patterns of biodiversity by distorting spatial predictions of habitat, a key characteristic in biogeographic studies. I use three separate case studies to explore: 1) How methods to account for sampling bias in species distribution modeling may alter estimates of species distributions and species-environment relationships, 2) How accounting for sampling bias in fossil data may change our understanding of paleo-distributions and interpretation of niche stability through time (i.e. niche conservation), and 3) How a novel use of MGWR can account for environmental sampling bias to reveal landscape patterns of local niche differences among proximal, but non-overlapping sister taxa. Broadly, my work shows that sampling bias present in commonly used federated global biodiversity observations is more than enough to degrade model performance of spatial predictions and niche characteristics. Measures commonly used to account for this bias can negate much loss, but only in certain conditions, and did not improve the ability to correctly identify explanatory variables or recreate species-environment relationships. Paleo-distributions calibrated on biased fossil records were improved with the use of a novel method to directly estimate the biased sampling distribution, which can be generalized to finer time slices for further paleontological studies. Finally, I show how a novel coupling of SDM and MGWR can illuminate local differences in niche separation that more closely match landscape genotypic variability in the two North American desert tortoise species than does their current taxonomic delineation.

Download or read book Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 738 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Review and Application of New Methods for Species Distribution Modeling written by Samuel Dylan Veloz and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Integrating Dynamic and Statistical Modelling Approaches in Order to Improve Predictions for Scenarios of Environmental Change written by Damaris Zurell and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to environmental change are essentially ignored in SDMs. Furthermore, neither dispersal nor demographic processes and biotic interactions are explicitly incorporated. Therefore, it has often been suggested to link statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches in order to make more realistic predictions of species’ distributions for scenarios of environmental change. In this thesis, I present two different ways of such linkage. (i) Mechanistic modelling can act as virtual playground for testing statistical models and allows extensive exploration of specific questions. I promote this ‘virtual ecologist’ approach as a powerful evaluation framework for testing sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. Also, I employ such an approach to systematically assess the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections. That way, relevant mechanisms are identified that shape the species’ response to altered environmental conditions and which should hence be considered when trying to project species’ distribution through time. (ii) I supplement SDM projections of potential future habitat for black grouse in Switzerland with an individual-based population model. By explicitly considering complex interactions between habitat availability and demographic processes, this allows for a more direct assessment of expected population response to environmental change and associated extinction risks. However, predictions were highly variable across simulations emphasising the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. Furthermore, I identify data coverage of the environmental niche as a likely cause for contrasted range predictions between SDM algorithms. SDMs may fail to make reliable predictions for truncated and edge niches, meaning that portions of the niche are not represented in the data or niche edges coincide with data limits. Overall, my thesis contributes to an improved understanding of uncertainty factors in predictions of range dynamics and presents ways how to deal with these. Finally I provide preliminary guidelines for predictive modelling of dynamic species’ response to environmental change, identify key challenges for future research and discuss emerging developments.

Download or read book Regression Analysis by Example written by Samprit Chatterjee and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the Fourth Edition: "This book is . . . an excellent source of examples for regression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable and understandable." —Journal of the American Statistical Association Regression analysis is a conceptually simple method for investigating relationships among variables. Carrying out a successful application of regression analysis, however, requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, and subjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition has been expanded and thoroughly updated to reflect recent advances in the field. The emphasis continues to be on exploratory data analysis rather than statistical theory. The book offers in-depth treatment of regression diagnostics, transformation, multicollinearity, logistic regression, and robust regression. The book now includes a new chapter on the detection and correction of multicollinearity, while also showcasing the use of the discussed methods on newly added data sets from the fields of engineering, medicine, and business. The Fifth Edition also explores additional topics, including: Surrogate ridge regression Fitting nonlinear models Errors in variables ANOVA for designed experiments Methods of regression analysis are clearly demonstrated, and examples containing the types of irregularities commonly encountered in the real world are provided. Each example isolates one or two techniques and features detailed discussions, the required assumptions, and the evaluated success of each technique. Additionally, methods described throughout the book can be carried out with most of the currently available statistical software packages, such as the software package R. Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition is suitable for anyone with an understanding of elementary statistics.