Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized & Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Grahame Reader and published by . This book was released on 1999-09 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized& Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book East Asian Monsoon written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East Asian summer monsoon has complex space and time structures that are distinct from the South Asian summer monsoon. It covers both subtropics and midlatitudes and its rainfall tends to be concentrated in rain belts that stretch for many thousands of kilometers and affect China, Japan, Korea, and the surrounding areas. The circulation of the East Asian winter monsoon encompasses a large meridional domain with cold air outbreaks emanating from the Siberian high and penetrates deeply into the equatorial Maritime Continent region, where the center of maximum rainfall has long been recognized as a major planetary scale heat source that provides a significant amount of energy which drives the global circulation during boreal winter. The East Asian summer monsoon is also closely linked with the West Pacific summer monsoon. Both are part of the global climate system and are affected by El Nino?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surface temperature variations in the western Pacific and surrounding oceans, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the South Asian summer monsoon. In addition, typhoons in the western North Pacific are most active during the East Asian summer monsoon. They may be considered as a component of the East Asian summer monsoon as they contribute substantial amounts of rainfall and have major impacts on the region. Because of its impacts on nearly one-third of the worldOCOs population and on the global climate system (including effects on the climate change), the study of the East Asian monsoon has received increased attention both in East Asian countries and in the United States. This book presents reviews of recent research on the subject."
Download or read book 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Anthony J. Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of mid-latitude troughs deep into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Some changes in terminology were required to describe the synoptic regions that have characteristic track directions. All 1592 cases during the period could be described by these four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Important track changes were found to be associated with transitions between these synoptic patterns and regions. Three binary tropical cyclone interactions defined for the Western North Pacific were adapted for use in the Southern Hemisphere with considerable success. A preliminary climatology of occurrences for the synoptic pattern/region combinations, ions, transitions between combinations, and binary tropical cyclone interactions are calculated. Sequences of synoptic analyses related to these transitions are described to aid in theapplication.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data written by Vernon F. Dvorak and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Download or read book Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting written by Qingyun Duan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational collection of hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.
Download or read book Global Perspectives On Tropical Cyclones From Science To Mitigation written by Johnny C L Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010-04-30 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Mark A. Booth and published by . This book was released on 2000-06 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990- 98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Advances in Geosciences written by Kenji Satake and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This invaluable volume set of Advances in Geosciences continues the excellent tradition of the Asia-Oceania scientific community in providing the most up-to-date research results on a wide range of geosciences and environmental science. The information is vital to the understanding of the effects of climate change and extreme weather on the most populated regions and fastest moving economies in the world. Besides, these volumes also highlight original papers from many prestigious research institutions which are conducting cutting-edge studies in atmospheric physics, hydrogical science and water resource, ocean science and coastal study, planetary exploration and solar system science, seismology, tsunamis, upper atmospheric physics and space science.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 702 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990-98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Government Reports Announcements Index written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists written by and published by . This book was released on 1970-12 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
