Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Joseph George Bolten and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies have shown that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments have historically underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Quantifying cost growth is important, but the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To address that issue, this analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to examine 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs similar to the type and complexity of those typically managed by the Air Force. The programs are first examined as a complete set, then Air Force and non-Air Force programs are analyzed separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differ. Four major sources of cost growth were identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions made by the government, (3) financial matters, and (4) miscellaneous sources. Total (development plus procurement) cost growth, when measured as simple averages among the program set, is dominated by decisions, which account for more than two-thirds of the growth. Most decisions-related cost growth involves quantity changes (22 percent), requirements growth (13 percent), and schedule changes (9 percent). Cost estimation (10 percent) is the only large contributor in the errors category. Less than 4 percent of the overall cost growth is due to financial and miscellaneous causes. Because decisions involving changes in requirements, quantities, and production schedules dominate cost growth, program managers, service leadership, and Congress should look for ways to reduce changes in these areas.
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth Analysis of 35 Major Defense Acquisition Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work has concluded that the Department of Defense (DoD) and the military departments historically have underestimated the cost of new weapon systems. Analysis of the data in Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) for a sample of 68 completed programs showed that the average total cost growth (after adjusting for procurement-quantity changes) was 46 percent over the baseline estimate made at Milestone B (MS B) and 16 percent over the baseline estimate made at MS C. The cost growth typically continued for about 75 percent of the time between the initiation of major development and the expending of 90 percent of program funding. Most of the cost growth occurred early in the acquisition phase, and the magnitude of development cost growth at completion for programs initiated in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s remained relatively steady. Although quantifying cost growth is important, the larger issue is why cost growth occurs. To answer that question, this analysis examines 35 mature, but not necessarily complete, major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) from the database of SARs that document the development and procurement of a variety of systems, including aircraft, missiles, electronics systems, launch vehicles, munitions, vehicles, and satellites. The programs were similar in type and complexity to those conducted by the Air Force. We analyzed a relatively small number of programs because of the labor-intensive nature of the work. We first examined the programs as a complete set and then analyzed Air Force and non Air Force programs separately to determine whether the causes of cost growth in the two groups differed.
Download or read book Sources of Weapon System Cost Growth written by Robert S. Leonard Joseph G. Bolten (Mark V. Arena, Obaid Younossi, Jerry M. Sollinger) and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This analysis uses data from Selected Acquisition Reports to determine the causes of cost growth in 35 mature major defense acquisition programs. Four major sources of growth are identified: (1) errors in estimation and scheduling, (2) decisions by the go.
Download or read book Is Weapon System Cost Growth Increasing written by Obaid Younossi and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, there have been numerous attempts to rein in the cost growth of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs. Cost growth is the ratio of the cost estimate reported in a program's final Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) and the cost-estimate baseline reported in a prior SAR issued at a particular milestone. Drawing on prior RAND research, new analyses of completed and ongoing weapon system programs, and data drawn from SARs, this study addresses the following questions: What is the cost growth of DoD weapon systems? What has been the trend of cost growth over the past three decades? To address the magnitude of cost growth, it examines cost growth in completed programs; to evaluate the cost growth trend over time, it provides additional analysis of a selection of ongoing programs. This sample of ongoing programs permits a look at growth trends in the more recent past. Changes in the mix of system types over time and dollar-weighted analysis were also considered because earlier studies have suggested that cost growth varies by program type and the cost of the program. The findings suggest that development cost growth over the past three decades has remained high and without any significant improvement.
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by Mark V. Arena and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2006 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The purpose of the project is to improve the tools used to estimate the costs of future weapon systems. It focuses on how recent technical, management, and government policy changes affect cost. This report focuses on the accuracy of cost estimates. For our analysis, we used a very specific sample of Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data, namely only programs that are complete or are nearly so. The analysis indicates a systematic bias toward underestimating the costs and substantial uncertainty in estimating the final cost of a weapon system. In contrast to the previous literature, the cost growth was higher than previously observed. We also found few correlations with cost growth, but observed that programs with longer duration had greater cost growth and electronics programs tended to have lower cost growth. Although there were some differences in the mean cost growth factors among the military departments, the differences were not statistically significant. While newer programs appear to have lower cost growth, this trend appears to be due to factors other than acquisition policies.
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-10 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The DoD expects the cost to develop and procure the major weapon systems in its portfolio to total $1.6 trill. With increased competition for funding within DoD and across the fed. gov¿t., effectively managing these acquisitions is critical. Yet DoD programs often experience poor outcomes -- like increased costs and delayed fielding of needed capabilities. In 2006, a report was issued on DoD¿s processes for identifying needs and allocating resources for its weapon system programs. In 2007, it was reported that DoD consistently commits to more programs than it can support. This report assesses DoD¿s funding approach, identifies factors that influence the effectiveness of this approach, and identifies practices that could help improve DoD¿s approach.
Download or read book Historical Cost Growth of Completed Weapon System Programs written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is one of a series from a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, "The Cost of Future Military Aircraft: Historical Cost Estimating Relationships and Cost Reduction Initiatives." The report complements another document from this project, "Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems," and includes a literature review of cost growth studies and a more extensive analysis of the historical cost growth in acquisition programs than appears in the companion report. Overall, most of the studies reviewed reported that actual costs were greater than estimates of baseline costs. The most common metric used to measure cost growth is the cost growth factor (CGF), which is defined as the ratio of the actual cost to the estimated costs. A CGF of less than 1.0 indicates that the estimate was higher than the actual cost -- an underrun. When the CGF exceeds 1.0, the actual costs were higher than the estimate -- an overrun. Studies of weapon system cost growth have mainly relied on data from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). These reports are prepared annually by all major defense acquisition program (MDAP) offices within the military services to provide the U.S. Congress with cost, schedule, and performance status. The comparison baseline (estimate) typically corresponds to a major acquisition decision milestone. Prior studies have reported Milestone (MS) II CGFs for development costs ranging from 1.16 to 2.26; estimates of procurement CGFs ranging from 1.16 to 1.65; and total program CGFs ranging from 1.20 to 1.54. Regarding the differences among cost growth due to service, weapon, and time period, prior studies tended to find the following: Army weapon systems had higher cost growth than did weapon systems for the Air Force or Navy; cost growth differs by equipment type; and cost growth has declined from the 1960s and 1970s, after it was recognized as an important problem.
Download or read book Program Characteristics That Contribute to Cost Growth written by Mark A. Lorell and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This report is a companion report to an earlier report, which identified the main characteristics of six recent U.S. Air Force acquisition programs with extreme cost growth. This report evaluates four recent Air Force Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) with low cost growth and compares and contrasts their key characteristics to the six programs evaluated with extreme cost growth from the earlier report. The purpose is threefold. First, we seek to determine whether or not the key characteristics identified in the programs with extreme cost growth are present in the programs with low cost growth and, if not, why. If those characteristics are not present, we assume that this finding reinforces our view that the key characteristics of the extreme cost-growth programs that were identified are likely the root causes of extreme cost growth. Second, we seek to determine the common characteristics of the low cost-growth programs and whether such characteristics can be incorporated into future Air Force MDAPs. Finally, we revisit the main recommendations from our earlier report regarding approaches to mitigating extreme cost growth and, based on our findings from the low cost-growth programs, determine whether those recommendations are still valid and broadly applicable to future Air Force MDAPs. This report provides summary case studies of the four MDAPs with low cost growth, how the key characteristics of these programs compare with the six programs with extreme cost growth, and how these findings affect our earlier recommendations on mitigating the causes of extreme cost growth"--Publisher's description.
Download or read book Cost Growth in Weapon Systems written by Neil M. Singer and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions DoD Must Balance Its Needs with Available Resources and Follow an Incremental Approach to Acquiring Weapon Systems written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-08 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A broad consensus exists that weapon system problems are serious, but efforts at reform have had limited impact. Last year, it was reported that DoD's portfolio of weapon programs experienced cost growth of $295 billion from first estimates, were delayed by an average of 21 months, and delivered fewer quantities and capabilities to the war-fighter than originally planned. This testimony describes the systemic problems that contribute to the cost, schedule, and performance problems in weapon system programs, recent actions that DoD has taken to address these problems, proposed reform legislation that has recently been introduced, and additional steps needed to improve future performance of acquisition programs. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Cost Growth in Major Weapon Systems in The Department of Defense written by United States. General Accounting Office and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extreme Cost Growth written by Mark A. Lorell and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Prepared for the United States Air Force."
Download or read book Trends in Nunn McCurdy Cost Breaches for Major Defense Acquisition Programs written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-06 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For nearly 30 years, the statutory provision, known as Nunn-McCurdy (NM), has been an oversight tool for Congress to hold the DoD accountable for cost growth on major defense programs. A NM breach occurs when a program's unit cost exceeds certain thresholds. When that happens, DoD must notify Congress of the breach. There are a number of statutory provisions that help implement cost growth reporting under NM. Referring to these statutory provisions as the NM process, this report examines trends in NM breaches and factors that may be responsible for these trends. It also discusses changes DoD is making or proposing to make to the NM process. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand report.
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions written by Michael J. Sullivan and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-09 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For several decades, Congress and the DoD have explored ways to improve the acquisition of major weapon systems, yet program outcomes and their underlying causes have proven resistant to change. Last year, the cumulative cost growth in DoD's portfolio of major programs was $296 billion. The opportunity to achieve meaningful improvements may now be at hand with the recent intro. of major reforms to the acquisition process. This report focuses on: (1) identifying weapon programs that are achieving good outcomes; (2) the factors that enable some programs to succeed; and (3) lessons to be learned from these programs to guide implementation of recent reforms. This report conducted case study reviews of five programs. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Defense Acquisitions Better Weapon Program Outcomes Require Discipline Accountability and Fundamental Changes in the Acquisition Environment written by Katherine V. Schinasi and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-02 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 1990, the DoD mgmt. of major weapon system acquisitions has been designated a high-risk area. DoD has taken some action to improve acquisition outcomes, but its weapons programs continue to take longer, cost more, and deliver fewer capabilities than originally planned. Over the next 5 years, DoD plans to invest about $900 billion to develop and procure weapons systems -- the highest level of investment in two decades. This testimony describes DoD¿s current weapons system investment portfolio, the problems that contribute to cost and schedule increases, and the potential impacts of recent legislative initiatives and DoD actions aimed at improving outcomes. Charts and tables.
Download or read book Air Force Major Defense Acquisition Program Cost Growth is Driven by Three Space Programs and the F 35a written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides the results of Air Force weapon system cost growth analyses based on the RAND Corporation's internal Selected Acquisition Report database. The database provides consistent, current metrics to support analyses both within RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) and in the Air Force acquisition community. This work assesses, quantifies, and documents cost and schedule growth of Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) and provides data and detailed program histories.
Download or read book Defense Management DOD Needs Better Information and Guidance to More Effectively Manage and Reduce Operating and Support Costs of Major Weapon Systems written by United States. Government Accountability Office and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Report examining growth in operating and support (O&S) costs of major DOD weapons systems, and identifying measures to improve DOD ability to manage and reduce O&S costs of weapons systems over their life cycle.
