Download or read book Sources and Propagation of International Business Cycles written by Fabio Canova and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Open Economy Macrodynamics written by Toichiro Asada and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2003-06-17 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first part of this book, we treat interacting and small open economies. We do this from an historical perspective, starting from the Classical model of the gold standard and the specie-flow mechanism and aim to show there that the Dornbusch IS-LM-PC approach, with or without rational expectations, can still be considered as a (if not the) core contribution to contemporaneous open economy macrodynamics, also on the level of structural macroeconometric model building. In the second part we then extend this analysis to the incorporation of more disequilibrium on the real markets, prominent further feedback channels of the macrodynamic literature and integrated macromodel building. We start from the closed economy, consider large open economies in a fixed exchange rate system, small open economies subject to high capital mobility, and finally two large interacting economies like the USA and Euroland. Our macrofounded approach extends and integrates non-market clearing traditions to macrodynamics and can be usefully compared with the New Keynesian approaches which are generally rigorously microfounded, but often much more limited in scope in capturing full market and agent interactions.

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book The Internationalization of Equity Markets written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.

Download or read book Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade written by Mr.Andrei A. Levchenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting rms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior.

Download or read book Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics Volume 2 written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-01-17 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents the second of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. In this second volume the authors present a detailed analysis and comparison of two competing types of approaches to Keynesian macroeconomics, one that integrates goods, labour and financial markets, and another from the perspective of a conventional type of LM-analysis or interest-rate policy of the central bank. The authors employ rigorous dynamic macro-models of a descriptive and applicable nature, which will be of interest to all macroeconomists who use formal model-building in their investigations. The research in this book with its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. The main conclusion of the work is that policy makers need to reconsider Keynesian ideas, but in the modern form in which they are expressed in this volume. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics will be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. This book will also engage central bankers and macroeconomic policy makers.

Download or read book Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents the second of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and offers a detailed analysis and comparison of two competing types of approaches to Keynesian macroeconomics.

Download or read book Development Macroeconomics written by Subrata Ghatak and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-03-09 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This brings together relevant papers on macro-, monetary and development economics from many eminent economists from all over the world who are closely associated with the works of Late Professor Anita Ghatak of Greenwich University, UK who was an expert in the field of macroeconomics and econometrics. It comprises a variety of articles which are highly significant in the analysis of macroeconomic policies both in developed and in-transition economies. There are several main topics covered in this book such as the test of new theories of economic growth and convergence and the use of dynamic and rigorous time-series econometric methods for analysing money demand functions in transition economies. This work details the meaning of economic development and the comparative analysis of the recent growth of India and China, also the modelling of the macroeconomics of poverty reduction and the monetary policy rules in transition economies. Lastly, the research analyses the Asian Financial crisis, the impact of migration on investment and economic growth and international consumption patterns.

Download or read book Open Economy Macroeconomics written by Martín Uribe and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-04 with total page 646 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes

Download or read book A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables written by Bernard Dumas and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous work by Dumas and Solnik (1993) has shown that a CAPM which incorporates foreign-exchange risk premia (a so-called 'international CAPM') is better capable empirically of explaining the structure of worldwide rates of return than does the classic CAPM. In the specification of that test, moments of rates of return were allowed to vary over time in relation to a number of lagged 'instrumental variables'. Dumas and Solnik used instrumental variables which were endogenous or 'internal' to the financial market (lagged world market portfolio rate of return, dividend yield, bond yield, short-term rate of interest). In the present paper, I use as instruments economic variables which are 'external' to the financial market, such as leading indicators of the business cycles. This is an attempt to explain the behavior of the international stock market on the basis of economically meaningful variables which capture 'the state of the economy'. I find that the leading indicators put together by Stock and Watson (NBER working paper no. 4014, 1992) as predictors of the U.S. business cycle also predict stock returns in the U.S., Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. These instruments lead again to a rejection of the classic CAPM and no rejection of the international CAPM.

Download or read book Globalisation written by Joachim Scheide and published by Duncker & Humblot. This book was released on 2015 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the integration of goods, capital and financial markets has progressed on a global scale. The 66th annual meeting of the Association of German Economics Research Institutes (ARGE) focused on the question of national macroeconomic policies in an environment of increasingly interdependent business cycles.In the first paper of the volume, Koll gives a general introduction to the history of business cycles co-movement. Koll also highlights the responsibility of national governments as global players.The first section deals with the evolution of business cycle synchronization. Flaig, Sturm and Woitek conclude that, while the oil shocks of the 70s induced strong co-movements in business cycles, German unification led to a divergence of national cycles. The paper by Fichtner concentrates not only on business cycle synchronization over time but introduces an analysis on the transmission mechanisms at work. Fichtner finds that common shocks and technology spillovers account for most of the co-movement in output.The second section explains some of the individual transmission mechanisms in greater detail. Horn examines how business confidence carries over from one country to another and finds evidence that positive expectations in the US strengthen German confidence and that this relationship has become stronger over time. Schröder quantifies the role of the transmission of stock market investors' confidence in the relationship between US and German GDP. He distinguishes between the pure investor expectation effect and the direct influence of stock markets on real GDP and finds a direct causal impact.The third section concentrates on economic policy and its implications. Kuhn analyzes the transmission of monetary policy shocks and finds the transmission mechanism via interest rate co-movements to be more important than that via trade and the exchange rate mechanism. Middendorf and Radmacher-Nottelmann explore the importance of multinationals in the transmission of economic business cycles. Macro evidence suggests a synchronization of investment behavior. Micro evidence, however, reveals only a weak impact of multinationals on business cycle synchronization.This AEQ supplement should be essential reading for anyone, whether academic or practitioner, with an interest in future macroeconomic policy options in an increasingly integrated economic environment. InhaltsverzeichnisInhalt: W. Koll, Economic Policy in the Light of New Forms of International Business-Cycle Convergence - G. Flaig / J.-E. Sturm / U. Woitek, International Synchronization of National Business Cycles? - M. J. M. Neumann, Comment - F. Fichtner, Germany and the European Business Cycle. An Analysis of Causal Relations in an International Real Business Cycle Model - B. Lucke, Comment - G. A. Horn, US Outlook and German Confidence. Does the Confidence Channel Work? - C. Dreger, Comment - M. Schröder, Interactions between U.S. and German GDP: The Role of Stock Markets - H. Entorf, Comment - A. Kuhn, The International Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for Selected OECD Countries - V. Clausen, Comment - T. Middendorf / N. A. Radmacher-Nottelmann, Business Cycle Transmission and MNE Activity. Macroeconomic Patterns and Microeconomic Evidence - A. Jungmittag, Comment

Download or read book Economic Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Econometrics in Theory and Practice written by Panchanan Das and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces econometric analysis of cross section, time series and panel data with the application of statistical software. It serves as a basic text for those who wish to learn and apply econometric analysis in empirical research. The level of presentation is as simple as possible to make it useful for undergraduates as well as graduate students. It contains several examples with real data and Stata programmes and interpretation of the results. While discussing the statistical tools needed to understand empirical economic research, the book attempts to provide a balance between theory and applied research. Various concepts and techniques of econometric analysis are supported by carefully developed examples with the use of statistical software package, Stata 15.1, and assumes that the reader is somewhat familiar with the Strata software. The topics covered in this book are divided into four parts. Part I discusses introductory econometric methods for data analysis that economists and other social scientists use to estimate the economic and social relationships, and to test hypotheses about them, using real-world data. There are five chapters in this part covering the data management issues, details of linear regression models, the related problems due to violation of the classical assumptions. Part II discusses some advanced topics used frequently in empirical research with cross section data. In its three chapters, this part includes some specific problems of regression analysis. Part III deals with time series econometric analysis. It covers intensively both the univariate and multivariate time series econometric models and their applications with software programming in six chapters. Part IV takes care of panel data analysis in four chapters. Different aspects of fixed effects and random effects are discussed here. Panel data analysis has been extended by taking dynamic panel data models which are most suitable for macroeconomic research. The book is invaluable for students and researchers of social sciences, business, management, operations research, engineering, and applied mathematics.

Download or read book Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also captures the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. Correlations of individual country fluctuations with the common component provide evidence of a “world business cycle” and a distinct European common component. The results suggest that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the post–Bretton Woods period.

Download or read book Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.

Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.