Download or read book Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Hybrid Ensemble Machine Learning Technique written by Josalin Jemima J and published by Mohammed Abdul Sattar. This book was released on 2024-01-02 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic development is impacted significantly by conventional energy sources, which are hazardous to humans and the environment. To meet the energy demand and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the world is shifting towards alternate renewable energy sources. Photovoltaics (PV) is the most common distributed energy source for microgrid formation and one of the world's top renewable energy sources because of their modular design, minimal operational noise, and ease of maintenance. Solar photovoltaic systems, which are photovoltaic panels that turn sunlight into electricity, are one of the most common renewable energy sources. PV production is strongly dependent on solar irradiation, temperature, and other weather conditions. Predicting solar irradiance implies predicting solar power generation one or more steps ahead of time. Prediction increases photovoltaic system development and operation while providing numerous economic benefits to energy suppliers. There are numerous applications that employ prediction to improve power grid operation and planning, with the appropriate time-resolution of the forecast. Stability and regulation necessitate knowledge of solar irradiation over the following few seconds. Reserve management and load following require knowledge of solar irradiation for the next several minutes or hours. To function properly, scheduling and unit commitment requires knowledge about the next few days of solar irradiation. It is crucial to precisely measure solar irradiation since the major issue with solar energy is that it fluctuates because of its variability. Grid operators can control the demand and supply of power and construct the best solar PV plant with the help of accurate and reliable solar irradiance predictions. Electric utilities must generate enough energy to balance supply and demand. The electric sector has consequently focused on Solar PV forecasting to assist its management system, which is crucial for the growth of additional power generation, such as microgrids. Forecasting solar irradiance has always been important to renewable energy generation since solar energy generation is location and time-specific. When the estimated solar generation is available, the grid will function more consistently in unpredictable situations since solar energy generates some quantity of power every day of the year, even on cloudy days.

Download or read book Improving Hour ahead Hybrid Solar Irradiance Prediction Using Deep Learning and Sky Images written by Benjamin Manning and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research was performed to increase the optimization of hour-ahead hybrid solar irradiance prediction methods through the design and implementation of a new hybrid system and model that utilized sky images as a replacement variable for cloud types identified by overhead satellites. Improving current solar radiation prediction methods will benefit electricity producers that need to better understand the availability of solar irradiance and how it may impact their forecasting. Phase one outlines a comparison between current supervised learning methods and deep learning methods. Recurrent Neural Networks produced lower RMSE and higher R2 values and outperformed supervised learning methods. Phase two outlines building and validating a new one-hour ahead hybrid prediction model by combining a deep learning approach with a replacement feature derived from real-time image collection and location specific numerical weather features. This replacement feature was the percentage of sky cover from an observation point on the ground and was called Sky Types. Sky Types are less expensive to obtain and can be collected at any location, which also makes the prediction of solar irradiance specific to the same location. Deep learning models validated that the use of Sky Types was not only a valid substitution for cloud types, but were more optimal for training as model performance improved with reduced network topology and while still being optimal for hour-ahead predictions. To use Sky Types in the new hybrid prediction model, a system was designed to collect the sky condition information from the National Weather Service and relevant images representing the sky condition; both were captured at the same time intervals. Phase three outlines the creation of a system used for collecting images and weather data, preparing images for use by the new hybrid prediction model and building a classification model using a Convolutional Neural Network. The system's GHI predictions were validated using hour-ahead ground truth solar irradiance amounts from ten locations and averaged an RMSE of 41.26 W/m2 and outperformed GFS forecasted GHI by 32% on highly variable weather days. This new hybrid system can be used anywhere numerical weather data and sky images can be captured.

Download or read book Prediction Techniques for Renewable Energy Generation and Load Demand Forecasting written by Anuradha Tomar and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-01-20 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to forecasting methods for renewable energy sources integrated with existing grid. It consists of two sections; the first one is on the generation side forecasting methods, while the second section deals with the different ways of load forecasting. It broadly includes artificial intelligence, machine learning, hybrid techniques and other state-of-the-art techniques for renewable energy and load predictions. The book reflects the state of the art in distributed generation system and future microgrids and covers theory, algorithms, simulations and case studies. It offers invaluable insights through this valuable resource to students and researchers working in the fields of renewable energy, integration of renewable energy with existing grid and electrical distribution network.

Download or read book Weather Modeling and Forecasting of PV Systems Operation written by Marius Paulescu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-05 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past decade, there has been a substantial increase of grid-feeding photovoltaic applications, thus raising the importance of solar electricity in the energy mix. This trend is expected to continue and may even increase. Apart from the high initial investment cost, the fluctuating nature of the solar resource raises particular insertion problems in electrical networks. Proper grid managing demands short- and long-time forecasting of solar power plant output. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is focused on this issue. Models for predicting the state of the sky, nowcasting solar irradiance and forecasting solar irradiation are studied and exemplified. Statistical as well as artificial intelligence methods are described. The efficiency of photovoltaic converters is assessed for any weather conditions. Weather modeling and forecasting of PV systems operation is written for researchers, engineers, physicists and students interested in PV systems design and utilization. “p>

Download or read book Optimization Techniques for Hybrid Power Systems Renewable Energy Electric Vehicles and Smart Grid written by Hazra, Sunanda and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-07-17 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Optimization Techniques for Hybrid Power Systems: Renewable Energy, Electric Vehicles, and Smart Grid is a comprehensive guide that delves into the intricate world of renewable energy integration and its impact on electrical systems. With the current global energy crisis and the urgent need to address climate change, this book explores the latest advancements and research surrounding optimization techniques in the realm of renewable energy. This book has a focus on nature-inspired and meta-heuristic optimization methods, and it demonstrates how these techniques have revolutionized renewable energy problem-solving and their application in real-world scenarios. It examines the challenges and opportunities in achieving a larger utilization of renewable energy sources to reduce carbon emissions and air pollutants while meeting renewable portfolio standards and enhancing energy efficiency. This book serves as a valuable resource for researchers, academicians, industry delegates, scientists, and final-year master's degree students. It covers a wide range of topics, including novel power generation technology, advanced energy conversion systems, low-carbon technology in power generation and smart grids, AI-based control strategies, data analytics, electrified transportation infrastructure, and grid-interactive building infrastructure.

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Download or read book Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Neural Networks written by Alberto Eduardo Gabás Royo and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is essential for minimizing operational costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation as it is commonly used to predict the power output. This thesis presents and compares three different machine learning approaches of solar irradiance forecasting: Random Forest (RF), Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Each model was tested on two different forecasts: the next hour average and the hourly day-ahead averages. The machine learning algorithms were trained and tested on data from a weather station located at Tampere University (TAU) in Tampere, Finland. Data were preprocessed before training the algorithms and the relevant features were selected. Moreover, Grid Search and Random Search techniques were used along with multiple train and validation splits to find the optimal hyperparameters for each machine learning algorithm. Persistence model is set as a baseline model for comparison while RMSE and MAE are used to quantify the prediction error. For the next hour forecast, LSTM achieved the highest accuracy in terms of RMSE (76.14 W/m2 ), 2.1% and 1.1% better than RF and FNN respectively. Instead, FNN generally produced the best results in the day-ahead forecast. In all models, the prediction error increases as the forecast horizon increases until it stabilizes at 10 hours approximately. Further, the error keeps increasing but slower. Besides, the next hour forecast models were able to predict considerably better the next hour solar irradiance than the day-ahead forecast models.

Download or read book Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting written by Wei-Chiang Hong and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting" that was published in Energies

Download or read book Solar Photovoltaic Energy written by Anne Labouret and published by IET. This book was released on 2010-12-17 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing designers, installers and managers with the tools and methods for the effective writing of technical reports and the ability to calculate, install and maintain the necessary components of photovoltaic energy.

Download or read book Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems written by Antonio Bracale and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-03-10 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.

Download or read book Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment written by Jan Kleissl and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-06-25 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.

Download or read book Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis Preprint written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

Download or read book Future of solar photovoltaic written by International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA and published by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents options to fully unlock the world’s vast solar PV potential over the period until 2050. It builds on IRENA’s global roadmap to scale up renewables and meet climate goals.

Download or read book Advanced Statistical Modeling Forecasting and Fault Detection in Renewable Energy Systems written by Fouzi Harrou and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fault detection, control, and forecasting have a vital role in renewable energy systems (Photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WTs)) to improve their productivity, ef?ciency, and safety, and to avoid expensive maintenance. For instance, the main crucial and challenging issue in solar and wind energy production is the volatility of intermittent power generation due mainly to weather conditions. This fact usually limits the integration of PV systems and WTs into the power grid. Hence, accurately forecasting power generation in PV and WTs is of great importance for daily/hourly efficient management of power grid production, delivery, and storage, as well as for decision-making on the energy market. Also, accurate and prompt fault detection and diagnosis strategies are required to improve efficiencies of renewable energy systems, avoid the high cost of maintenance, and reduce risks of fire hazards, which could affect both personnel and installed equipment. This book intends to provide the reader with advanced statistical modeling, forecasting, and fault detection techniques in renewable energy systems.

Download or read book Neural Information Processing written by Tom Gedeon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 792 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two-volume set CCIS 1142 and 1143 constitutes thoroughly refereed contributions presented at the 26th International Conference on Neural Information Processing, ICONIP 2019, held in Sydney, Australia, in December 2019. For ICONIP 2019 a total of 345 papers was carefully reviewed and selected for publication out of 645 submissions. The 168 papers included in this volume set were organized in topical sections as follows: adversarial networks and learning; convolutional neural networks; deep neural networks; embeddings and feature fusion; human centred computing; human centred computing and medicine; human centred computing for emotion; hybrid models; image processing by neural techniques; learning from incomplete data; model compression and optimization; neural network applications; neural network models; semantic and graph based approaches; social network computing; spiking neuron and related models; text computing using neural techniques; time-series and related models; and unsupervised neural models.

Download or read book IoT for Sustainable Smart Cities and Society written by Joel J. P. C. Rodrigues and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-05-10 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a sound theoretical base and an extensive practical expansion of smart sustainable cities and societies, while also examining case studies in the area to help readers understand IoT driven solutions in smart cities. The book covers fundamentals, applications, and challenges of IoT for sustainable smart cities and society. With a good understanding of IoT and smart cities, and the associated communication protocols, the book provides an insight into its applications in several areas of smart cities. Models, architectures, and algorithms are presented that provide additional solutions. The main challenges discussed that are associated with IoT involved include security, privacy, authenticity, etc. The book is relevant to researchers, academics, professionals, and students.

Download or read book Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting written by André Gensler and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis describes performance measures and ensemble architectures for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts using the application example of wind power forecasting and proposes a novel scheme for the situation-dependent aggregation of forecasting models. For performance measures, error scores for deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts are compared, and their characteristics are shown in detail. For the evaluation of deterministic forecasts, a categorization by basic error measure and normalization technique is introduced that simplifies the process of choosing an appropriate error measure for certain forecasting tasks. Furthermore, a scheme for the common evaluation of different forms of probabilistic forecasts is proposed. Based on the analysis of the error scores, a novel hierarchical aggregation technique for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting models is proposed that dynamically weights individual forecasts using multiple weighting factors such as weather situation and lead time dependent weighting. In the experimental evaluation it is shown that the forecasting quality of the proposed technique is able to outperform other state of the art forecasting models and ensembles.