Download or read book Simulating Alternative Social Security Responses to the Demographic Transition written by Alan J. Auerbach and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. and other western economies are experiencing dramatic changes in growth and age structure of their populations. Fluctuations in birth rates are the most important determinants of these changes in the post war period. This paper examines the dynamic effects of baby "booms" and baby"busts" on a range of economic variables using a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model. In addition to describing general transition (as opposed to simply long run) affects of fertility change, the paper considers alter-native Social Security policies for avoiding sharp increases in long run payroll tax rates. These include reductions in benefit replacement rates, advances in Social Security's retirement age, taxation of social security benefits, and the accumulation of a significant Social Security trust fund. According to the simulated demographic transitions, the savings inthe U.S. fertility currently underway can have very major impacts on long run factor returns and produce percipitous short term changes in saving rates. While Social Security policy has important effects on the simulated demographic transitions, these effects are of secondary importance to the long run level of economic welfare. Even if payroll tax rates rise dramatically, long run welfare (measured in terms of levels of adult consumption and leisure) is, nonetheless, substantially higher in the case of a sustained dropin the fertility rate. This reflects, in part, the decline in the number of dependent children per adult; while a sustained decline in the fertility rate eventually means a much larger ratio of elderly per capita, the decline in children per capita means an overall decline in the long run ratio of dependents to prime age workers in the economy. A second explanation for the simulated long run welfare gains is capital deepening associated with lower population growth rates
Download or read book Simulation for Policy Inquiry written by Anand Desai and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-06-12 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public policy and management problems have been described as poorly defined, messy, squishy, unstructured, intractable, and wicked. In a word, they are complex. This book illustrates the development and use of simulation models designed to capture some of the complexity inherent in the formulation, management, and implementation of policies aimed at addressing such problems. Simulation models have long existed at the fringes of policy inquiry but are not yet considered an essential component of the policy analyst’s toolkit. However, this situation is likely to change because with improvements in computational power and software, simulation is now easier to include in the standard repertoire of research tools available for discovery and decision support. This volume provides both a conceptual rationale for using simulations to inform public policy and a practical introduction to how such models might be constructed and employed. The focus of these papers is on the uses of simulation to gain understanding and inform policy decisions and action. Techniques represented in this volume include Monte Carlo simulation, system dynamics and agent based modeling.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper presents a model of optimum currency areas using a general equilibrium approach with regionally differentiated goods. The choice of a currency union depends upon the size of the underlying disturbances, the correlation between these disturbances, the costs of transactions across currencies, factor mobility across regions, and the interrelationships between demand for different goods. It is found that, while a currency union can raise the welfare of the regions within the union, it unambiguously lowers welfare for those outside the union. [JEL F33, F36]
Download or read book Policy Simulations in the European Union written by Amedeo Fossati and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1998-02-19 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this much-needed collection employ Applied General Equilibrium methodology to address a wide variety of concerns within the European Union. Contributors examine five main policy areas: * international market integration * policy simulations with alternative treatments of factor markets * policies for carbon dioxide abatement * competitiveness and convergence * VAT and income tax reform.
Download or read book Money s Worth of Social Security written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Finance and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Optimal Economic Growth and Non Stable Population written by Evert van Imhoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book studies optimal economic growth in a closed economy which experiences non-stable population growth. The economy is described by means of a neoclassical growth model which distinguishes overlapping generations within the population. The basic neoclassical growth model is extended to include various types of technical change, as well as investment in human capital or education. The research described in this book connects the analytical tools of traditional growth theory with the actual demographic experience of most industrialized countries. The role of demographic processes in the growth theoretical literature is discussed in the next section. The discussion will show that growth theory needs to extend its scope through the construction of growth models which explicitly recognize demographic forces as a potential source of non-stationarities. This book constitutes a first attempt at such a demographic extension. 1.1 Growth theory and demographic change The theory of economic growth (e.g. Solow, 1970; Burmeister & Dobell, 1970; Wan, 1971) attempts to describe and to explain the long-run development of an economic system (or, in short, economy). An economic system is essentially dynamic in nature. Among the most important sources of dynamics in economics are the following: accumulation of capital (investment); technical change; population growth. Some of these dynamic forces are, at least in part, endogenous to the economic system (i.e. determined by economic variables).
Download or read book Population Aging and Pension Systems written by F. Desmond McCarthy and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Below replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies written by Kingsley Davis and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Old Age and Survivors Insurance in the Demographic Transition written by Timothy D. McBride and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Old Age Security written by Ramgopal Agarwala and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The seventh edition of this annual report reviews the long-term prospects for developing countries in light of changes in the global environment and provides a detailed discussion of selected aspects of the global integration process in those countries. The first chapter evaluates prospects for the major elements of the external environment affecting developing countries and the medium-to-long-term outlook for developing countries themselves. The report forecasts that the external environment for developing countries remains broadly favorable. Among the main policy challenges faced by these countries is their ability to adapt to long-run shifts in market opportunities and heightened competitive pressures brought on by global trade liberalization--now increasingly focused on liberalization of trade in services--rising global production, and other forms of global integration. The chapter considers the implications for the world economy of rapid growth and integration in large developing countries such as China, India, and Brazil in the period to 2020. The second chapter looks at the move toward greater globalization of production, broadly defined as cross-border production by multinational enterprises and their networks of affiliates, subcontractors, and other partners. Within this context, the chapter addresses the significance of global production in world output in main groups of countries and economic sectors; factors driving the trend toward global production, including heightened competition, worldwide policy liberalization, and rapid technological progress; the benefits that developing countries can derive from global production, such as new technologies and improved efficiency practices; and the issues for policymakers seeking to enhance participation in global production and maximize its benefits for host countries.
Download or read book IMF Working Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 726 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book NBER Reporter written by National Bureau of Economic Research and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 816 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Work Plan written by United States. Social Security Administration. Office of Research and Statistics and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Simulating the Long run Aggregate Economic and Intergenerational Redistributive Effects of Social Security Policy written by Dean R. Leimer and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2015-09-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. population is aging. Social Security projections suggest that between 2013 and 2050, the population aged 65 and over will almost double, from 45 million to 86 million. One key driver of population aging is ongoing increases in life expectancy. Average U.S. life expectancy was 67 years for males and 73 years for females five decades ago; the averages are now 76 and 81, respectively. It has long been the case that better-educated, higher-income people enjoy longer life expectancies than less-educated, lower-income people. The causes include early life conditions, behavioral factors (such as nutrition, exercise, and smoking behaviors), stress, and access to health care services, all of which can vary across education and income. Our major entitlement programs - Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income - have come to deliver disproportionately larger lifetime benefits to higher-income people because, on average, they are increasingly collecting those benefits over more years than others. This report studies the impact the growing gap in life expectancy has on the present value of lifetime benefits that people with higher or lower earnings will receive from major entitlement programs. The analysis presented in The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy by Income goes beyond an examination of the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive estimates of how lifetime benefits are affected by the changing distribution of life expectancy. The report also explores, from a lifetime benefit perspective, how the growing gap in longevity affects traditional policy analyses of reforms to the nation's leading entitlement programs. This in-depth analysis of the economic impacts of the longevity gap will inform debate and assist decision makers, economists, and researchers.
Download or read book Privatizing Social Security written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume represents the most important work to date on one of the pressing policy issues of the moment: the privatization of social security. Although social security is facing enormous fiscal pressure in the face of an aging population, there has been relatively little published on the fundamentals of essential reform through privatization. Privatizing Social Security fills this void by studying the methods and problems involved in shifting from the current system to one based on mandatory saving in individual accounts. "Timely and important. . . . [Privatizing Social Security] presents a forceful case for a radical shift from the existing unfunded, pay-as-you-go single national program to a mandatory funded program with individual savings accounts. . . . An extensive analysis of how a privatized plan would work in the United States is supplemented with the experiences of five other countries that have privatized plans." —Library Journal "[A] high-powered collection of essays by top experts in the field."—Timothy Taylor, Public Interest
Download or read book CEPR Publication written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
