Download or read book Short term Electrical Load Forecasting for an Institutional industrial Power System Using an Artificial Neural Network written by Eric Lynn Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For optimal power system operation, electrical generation must follow electrical load demand. The generation, transmission, and distribution utilities require some means to forecast the electrical load so they can utilize their electrical infrastructure efficiently, securely, and economically. The short-term load forecast (STLF) represents the electric load forecast for a time interval of a few hours to a few days. This thesis will define STLF as a 24-hour-ahead load forecast whose results will provide an hourly electric load forecast in kilowatts (kW) for the future 24 hours (a 24-hour load profile). This thesis will use the method of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to create a STLF algorithm for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL’s power system can be described as an institutional/industrial-type electrical load. The ANN is a mathematical tool that mimics the thought processes of the human brain. The ANN can be created and trained to receive historical load and future weather forecasts as input and produce a load forecast as its output. Most ANNs in the literature are used to forecast the next day 24-hour load profile for a transmission-level system with resulting load forecast errors ranging from approximately 1 % to 3 %. This research will show that an ANN can be used to forecast the smaller, more chaotic load profile of an institutional/industrial-type power system and results in a similar forecast error range. In addition, the operating bounds of the ORNL electric load will be analyzed along with the weather profiles for the site. Correlations between load and weather and load and calendar descriptors, such as day of week and month, will be used as predictor inputs to the ANN to optimize is size and accuracy.

Download or read book Short Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies written by Wei-Chiang Hong and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-01-29 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies" that was published in Energies

Download or read book Electric Load Forecasting Using an Artificial Neural Networks written by Natalia Gotman and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2014-03 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Electric load forecasting is an important research field in electric power industry. It plays a crucial role in solving a wide range of tasks of short-term planning and operating control of electric power system operating modes. Load forecasting is carried out in different time spans. Load forecasting within a current day - operating forecasting; one-day-week-month-ahead load forecasting - short-term load forecasting; one-month-quarter-year-ahead load forecasting - long-term load forecasting. So far a great number of both conventional and non-conventional electric load forecasting methods and models have been developed. The work presents research results of electric load forecasting for electrical power systems using artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic as one of the most advanced and perspective directions of solving this task. A theoretical approach to the issues discussed is combined with the data of experimental studies implemented with application of load curves of regional electrical power systems. The book is addressed to specialists and researchers concerned with operational control modes of electric power systems.

Download or read book Electrical Load Forecasting written by S.A. Soliman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-05-26 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models

Download or read book Short Term Load Forecasting 2019 written by Antonio Gabaldón and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-02-26 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.

Download or read book Short term Electric Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks written by Eric Lee Daugherty and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Short term Electric Load Forecasting by Using Multi layer Feed forward Neural Network written by Marvin Herbert Wibisono and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Journal of the Institution of Engineers India written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Case Study of Short term Electricity Load Forecasting with Temperature Dependency written by Hein Fong Tai and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of electricity companies. It enhances the energy-efficient and reliable operation of a power system. This is a case study of short-term load forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). This load forecasting program gives load forecasts half an hour in advance. Historical load data obtained from the electricity generation company will be use. The main stages are the pre-processing of the data sets, network training, and forecasting. The inputs used for the neural network are one set of historical load demand data and five sets of temperature data. The neural network used has 3 layers: an input, a hidden, and an output layer. The input layer has 5 neurons, the number of hidden layer neurons can be varied for the different performance of the network, while the output layer has a single neuron.

Download or read book Short term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN) with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX). The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. Finally, the New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

Download or read book Smart Meter Data Analytics written by Yi Wang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-02-24 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to make the best use of fine-grained smart meter data to process and translate them into actual information and incorporated into consumer behavior modeling and distribution system operations. It begins with an overview of recent developments in smart meter data analytics. Since data management is the basis of further smart meter data analytics and its applications, three issues on data management, i.e., data compression, anomaly detection, and data generation, are subsequently studied. The following works try to model complex consumer behavior. Specific works include load profiling, pattern recognition, personalized price design, socio-demographic information identification, and household behavior coding. On this basis, the book extends consumer behavior in spatial and temporal scale. Works such as consumer aggregation, individual load forecasting, and aggregated load forecasting are introduced. We hope this book can inspire readers to define new problems, apply novel methods, and obtain interesting results with massive smart meter data or even other monitoring data in the power systems.

Download or read book Short term Electric Load Forecasting Using Neural Network Models written by Yasser Al-Rashid and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Short Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks written by Iskandar Kfoury and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Short Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Multivariable Inputs written by Jaime H. Buitrago and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN) with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX). The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1\% have been achieved, which is a 30\% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. In addition, in order to improve the robustness of the forecast to variations in the number of neurons and other network parameters, the author proposes a method using an exponential decay of the error weights for training the neural network. The modification consists in giving higher error weight to more recent values and lower weight to older values of the training set. By doing this, mover recent values have a higher influence on the calculation of the synaptic weights and therefore the forecast produced by the NARX network is more accurate. This method, combined with the use of Bayesian regularization for training, results in improved forecast accuracy of up to 25\% and robustness to variation in parameter selection. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

Download or read book Neural networks in load forecasting in electric energy systems written by and published by . This book was released on 1908 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Esta dissertação investiga a utilização de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNAs) na área de previsão de carga elétrica. Nesta investigação foram utilizados dados reais de energia relativos ao sistema elétrico brasileiro. O trabalho consiste de quatro partes principais: um estudo sobre o problema de previsão de carga no contexto de sistemas elétricos de potência; o estudo e a modelagem das RNAs para previsão de carga; o desenvolvimento do ambiente de simulação; e o estudo de casos. O estudo sobre o problema de previsão de carga envolveu uma investigação sobre a importância da previsão de demanda de energia na área de sistemas elétricos de potência. Enfatizou-se a classificação dos diversos tipos de previsão de acordo com o seu horizonte, curto e longo prazo, bem como a análise das variáveis mais relevantes para a modelagem da carga elétrica. O estudo também consistiu da análise de vários projetos na área de previsão de carga, apresentando as metodologias mais utilizadas. O estudo e a modelagem de RNAs na previsão de carga envolveu um extenso estudo bibliográfico de diversas metodologias. Foram estudadas as arquiteturas e os algoritmos de aprendizado mais empregados. Constatou-se uma predominância da utilização do algoritmo de retropropagação (Backpropagation) nas aplicações de previsão de carga elétrica horária para curto prazo. A partir desse estudo, e utilizando o algoritmo de retropropagação, foram propostas diversas arquiteturas de RNAs de acordo com o tipo de previsão desejada. O desenvolvimento do ambiente de simulação foi implementado em linguagem C em estações de trabalho SUN. O pacote computacional engloba basicamente 3 módulos: um módulo de pré-processamento da série de carga para preparar os dados de entrada; um módulo de treinamento da Rede Neural para o aprendizado do comportamento da série; e um módulo de execução da Rede Neural para a previsão dos valores futuros da série. A construção de uma interface amigável para a execução do sistema de previsão, bem como a obtenção de um sistema portátil foram as metas principais para o desenvolvimento do simulador. O estudo de casos consistiu de um conjunto de implementações com o objetivo de testar o desempenho de um sistema de previsão baseado em Redes Neurais para dois horizontes distintos: previsão horária e previsão mensal. No primeiro caso, foram utilizados dados de energia da CEMIG (Estado de Minas Gerais) e LIGHT (Estado do Rio de Janeiro). No segundo caso, foram utilizados dados de energia de 32 companhias do setor elétrico brasileiro. Destaca-se que a previsão mensal faz parte de um projeto de interesse da ELETROBRÁS, contratado pelo CEPEL. Para ambos os casos, investigou-se a influência do horizonte de previsão e da época do ano no desempenho do sistema de previsão. Além disso, foram estudadas as variações do desempenho das Redes Neurais de acordo com a empresa de energia elétrica utilizada. A avaliação do desempenho foi feita através da análise das seguintes estatísticas de erro: MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) e U de Theil. O desempenho das RNAs foi comparado com o de outras técnicas de previsão, como os métodos de Holt-Winters e Box & Jenkins, obtendo-se resultados, em muitos casos, superiores.

Download or read book Short term Electric Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term electric load forecasting (STELF) plays an important role in electric utilities, and several techniques are used to perform these predictions and system modelings. Recently, artificial neural networks (ANN's) have been implemented for STELF with some success. This paper will examine improved STELF by optimization of ANN techniques. The strategy for the research involves careful selection of input variables and utilization of effective generalization. Some results have been obtained which show that, with the selection of another input variable, the ANN's use for STELF can be improved.

Download or read book A Short term Electric Load Forecasting Method Based on an Artificial Neural Network written by Nirmala Nagamuthu and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: