Download or read book Seasonal Climate Models for National Wheat Yield Forecasts in Brazil written by Maximilian Zachow and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: National wheat yield depends on climate conditions and usually remains unknown until harvest. In-season knowledge can be provided by wheat yield forecast systems, supporting the decision-making of farmers, food traders, or policymakers. In this study, we improved a previously developed statistical wheat yield model to forecast trend-corrected wheat yield in Brazil with monthly temperature and precipitation data from seasonal climate models (SCM) from the last three months before harvest. We chose SCM from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the UK-based Met Office (UKMO). A multi-model ensembles (MME) approach from the three individual models as well as a climatology (CLIMATE) approach were also tested. Wheat yield forecasts were issued at the beginning of each month from planting in April to harvest in November. Each month, features from future months are forecasted by SCM, and past features are supplemented with observations from weather stations. Our approach shows a 12% RMSE in forecasting yield early in the season, from April to June. Forecasts start to improve from July onwards, with shorter lead times and including observed features from September onwards. At the beginning of October, about two months before harvest is completed, wheat yield can be forecasted with 7.6%, 7.9%, 7.9%, 9.1%, and 9.3% RMSE using climate data from UKMO, ECMWF, MME, NCEP, and CLIMATE respectively. Seasonal climate models can be useful tools to forecast national wheat yield, even shortly before harvest to prepare for possible food shortages. Our approach could be applied to other staple crops and regions.

Download or read book Assessing User Needs and Model Accuracy of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Winter Wheat Producers in the South central United States written by Toni Klemm and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-01-12 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The TOGA (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere) Program was designed to study short-term climate variations. A 10-year international program, TOGA made El Nino a household word. This book chronicles the cooperative efforts of oceanographers and meteorologists, several U.S. government agencies, many other nations, and international scientific organizations to study El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes the progression from being unable to detect the development of large climate variations to being able to make and use rudimentary climate predictions, especially for some tropical countries. It examines the development of the TOGA Program, evaluates its accomplishments, describes U.S. participation in the program, and makes general recommendations for developing better understanding and predictions of climate variations on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Download or read book Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk written by Alberto Troccoli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-29 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Download or read book Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences written by Daniel S. Wilks and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2011-07-04 with total page 697 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. - Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting - Many worked examples - End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided

Download or read book Government Support to Agricultural Insurance written by Olivier Mahul and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-03-08 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Governments in developing countries have been increasingly involved in the support of agricultural (crop and livestock) insurance programs in recent years. In their attempts to design and implement agricultural insurance, they have sought technical and financial assistance from the international community and particularly from the World Bank. One of the recurrent requests from governments regards international experience with agricultural insurance, not only in developed countries, where in some cases agricultural insurance has been offered for more than a century, but also in middleand low-income countries. Governments are particularly interested in the technical, operational, financial, and institutional aspects of public support to agricultural insurance. 'Government Support to Agricultural Insurance' informs public and private decision makers involved in agricultural insurance about recent developments, with a particular focus on middle- and low-income countries. It presents an updated picture of the spectrum of institutional frameworks and experiences with agricultural insurance, ranging from countries in which the public sector provides no support to those in which governments heavily subsidize agricultural insurance. This analysis is based on a survey conducted by the World Bank s agricultural insurance team in 2008 in 65 developed and developing countries. Drawing on the survey results, the book identifies some key roles governments can play to support the development of sustainable, affordable, and cost-effective agricultural insurance programs.

Download or read book Fungal Wheat Diseases Etiology Breeding and Integrated Management written by Maria Rosa Simon and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-05-31 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Variability and the Global Harvest written by Cynthia Rosenzweig and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2008-01-07 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Earth's climate is constantly changing. Some of the changes are progressive, while others fluctuate at various time scales. The El Niño-la Niña cycle is one such fluctuation that recurs every few years and has far-reaching impacts. It generally appears at least once per decade, but this may vary with our changing climate. The exact frequency, sequence, duration and intensity of El Niño's manifestations, as well as its effects and geographic distributions, are highly variable. The El Niño-la Niña cycle is particularly challenging to study due to its many interlinked phenomena that occur in various locations around the globe. These worldwide teleconnections are precisely what makes studying El Niño-la Niña so important. Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel describe the current efforts to develop and apply a global-to-regional approach to climate-risk management. They explain how atmospheric and social scientists are cooperating with agricultural practitioners in various regions around the world to determine how farmers may benefit most from new climate predictions. Specifically, the emerging ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle offers the potential to transform agricultural planning worldwide. Biophysical scientists are only now beginning to recognize the large-scale, globally distributed impacts of ENSO on the probabilities of seasonal precipitation and temperature regimes. Meanwhile, social scientists have been researching how to disseminate forecasts more effectively within rural communities. Consequently, as the quality of climatic predictions have improved, the dissemination and presentation of forecasts have become more effective as well. This book explores the growing understanding of the interconnectedness of climate predictions and productive agriculture for sustainable development, as well as methods and models used to study this relationship.

Download or read book Disaster Risk Science written by Peijun Shi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-04 with total page 766 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first English language book to systematically introduce basic theories, methods and applications of disaster risk science from the angle of different subjects including disaster science, emergency technology and risk management. Viewed from basic theories, disaster risk science consists of disaster system, formation mechanism and process, covering 3 chapters in this book. From the perspective of technical methods, disaster risk science includes measurement and assessment of disasters, mapping and zoning of disaster risk, covering 4 chapters in this book. From the angle of application practices, disaster risk science contains disaster management, emergency response and integrated disaster risk paradigm, covering 3 chapters in the book. The book can be a good reference for researchers, students, and practitioners in the field of disaster risk science and natural disaster risk management for more actively participating in and supporting the development of "disaster risk science".

Download or read book Indo Pacific Climate Variability and Predictability written by Swadhin Kumar Behera and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-12-09 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book aims to compile some of the important results from the latest research in climate variation and prediction studies with a focus on the role of the ocean, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Several new modes of ocean-atmosphere climate variations have been discovered in the last decade, and the advance of climate models have made it possible to predict some of these modes several seasons ahead. This has improved the society's ability to use model predictions to mitigate climate disaster risks. Leading experts in the field were invited to contribute to this book in order to compile a comprehensive review for the benefit of researchers as well as general readers interested in the subject."--

Download or read book Remote Sensing of Agriculture and Land Cover Land Use Changes in South and Southeast Asian Countries written by Krishna Prasad Vadrevu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-03-28 with total page 618 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book sheds new light on the remote sensing of agriculture in South/Southeast Asian (S/SEA) countries. S/SEA countries are growing rapidly in terms of population, industrialization, and urbanization. One of the critical challenges in the region is food security. In S/SEA, although total food production and productivity have increased in previous decades, in recent years, the growth rate of food production has slowed down, mostly due to land use change, market forces and policy interventions. Further, the weather and climate systems in the region driven primarily by monsoon variability are resulting in droughts or flooding, impacting agricultural production. Therefore, monitoring crops, including agricultural land cover changes at regular intervals, is essential to predict and prepare for disruptions in the food supply in the S/SEA countries. The current book captures the latest research on the remote sensing of agricultural land cover/ land use changes, including mapping and monitoring crops, crop yields, biophysical parameter retrievals, multi-source data fusion for agricultural applications, and chapters on decision making and early warning systems for food security. The authors of this book are international experts in the field, and their contributions highlight the use of remote sensing and geospatial technologies for agricultural research and applications in South/Southeast Asia.

Download or read book Analysis of Climate Variability written by Hans v. Storch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: EUROPEAN SCHOOl OF CLiMATOlOGY AND NATURAL HAZARDS The training of scientific and technical personnel and the development of highly qualified scientists are, and have always been, among the important concerns of the European Commission. Advanced training is an important requirement for the implementation of a common EU policy in science and technology. The European School of Climatology and Natural Hazards was started as apart of the training and education activities of the European Programme on Climatology and Natural Hazards (EPOCH), and is continued under the subsequent research programme (ENVIRONMENT 1990-1994). The school consists of annual courses on specialised subjects within re search in climatology and natural hazards, and is open to graduating, grad uate and post graduate students in these fields. Each of the courses is organized in cooperation with a European Institu tion involved in the current research programme, and is aimed at giving to the students formal lectures and participation in informal discussions with leading researchers. The present volume is based on the lectures given at the course held on the island of Elba from the 30th October to the 6th of November 1993 on Statistical Analysis of Climate Variability. It features selected and extended presentations, and represents an important contribution to advanced studies in climate statistical analysis, supplementing more traditional texts. I trust that all those involved in research related to climate change and climate variability will appreciate this work and will benefit from the com prehensive and state-of-the-art information it provides.

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 956 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 712 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 1180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Earth Resources written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 758 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: