Download or read book Scaling Clustering and Dynamics of Volatility in Financial Time Series written by Baosheng Yuan and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates volatility clustering, scaling and dynamics in financial series of asset returns and studies the underlying mechanism. We propose a direct measure of volatility clustering based on the conditional probability distribution (CPD) of the returns given the return in the previous time interval. We found that the CPDs of returns in real financial time series exhibits universal scaling, characterized by a collapse of the CPDs (of different time lags and of different returns in the previous interval) into to a universal curve exhibiting a power-law tail with an exponent of amp;−4. We construct a simple phenomenological model to explain the emergence of VC and the associated volatility scaling. We also study agent-based models of financial markets, and explore the impact of dynamical risk aversion (DRA) of heterogeneous agents on the price fluctuations. We found that the DRA is the primary driving force responsible for excess price fluctuations and the associated volatility clustering. Both our models (phenomenological model and agent-based model) are able to generate time series that reproduces stylized facts of the market data on different time scales. We have also studied general herding behavior often exhibited in financial markets in the context of an evolutionary Minority Game. We discovered a general mechanism for the transition from segregation into opposing groups to clustering towards cautious behavior.
Download or read book Clustering Financial Time Series for Volatility Modeling written by Riad Jarjour and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model and its variants have been widely used in modeling the volatility of multivariate time series, with applications in portfolio construction and risk management. While popular for its simplicity, the DCC uses only two parameters to model the correlation dynamics, regardless of the number of assets. The flexible dynamic conditional correlation (FDCC) model attempts to remedy this by grouping the stocks into various clusters, each with its own set of parameters. However, it assumes the grouping is known apriori. In this thesis we develop a systematic method to determine the number of groups to use as well as how to allocate the assets to groups. We show through simulation that the method does well in identifying the groups, and apply the method to real data, showing its performance. We also develop and apply a Bayesian approach to this same problem. Furthermore, we propose an instantaneous measure of correlation that can be used in many volatility models, and in fact show that it outperforms the popular sample Pearson's correlation coefficient for small sample sizes, thus opening the door to applications in fields other than finance.
Download or read book Long Memory in Economics written by Gilles Teyssière and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-22 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assembles three different strands of long memory analysis: statistical literature on the properties of, and tests for, LRD processes; mathematical literature on the stochastic processes involved; and models from economic theory providing plausible micro foundations for the occurrence of long memory in economics.
Download or read book Conditional Probability as a Measure of Volatility Clustering in Financial Time Series written by Kan Chen and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical analysis of time series of asset returns has revealed fat tails and volatility clustering which manifests itself as autocorrelations in absolute returns. We provide a quantitative measure of the well-studied phenomenon of volatility clustering in financial time series: We use the conditional probability distribution of the asset return, given the return in the previous time interval. Our analysis of a variety of data reveals a scaling collapse on to universal curve with a power-law tail at large returns. The scale factor provides a direct measure of volatility clustering. We introduce a phenomenological model which captures some of the key features of this scaling.
Download or read book Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets written by Thomas Lux and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails written by Andrew C. Harvey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility of financial returns changes over time and, for the last thirty years, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have provided the principal means of analyzing, modeling and monitoring such changes. Taking into account that financial returns typically exhibit heavy tails - that is, extreme values can occur from time to time - Andrew Harvey's new book shows how a small but radical change in the way GARCH models are formulated leads to a resolution of many of the theoretical problems inherent in the statistical theory. The approach can also be applied to other aspects of volatility. The more general class of Dynamic Conditional Score models extends to robust modeling of outliers in the levels of time series and to the treatment of time-varying relationships. The statistical theory draws on basic principles of maximum likelihood estimation and, by doing so, leads to an elegant and unified treatment of nonlinear time-series modeling.
Download or read book Modeling Financial Time Series with S PLUS written by Eric Zivot and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-10-10 with total page 998 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics. It is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data. It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts. This edition covers S+FinMetrics 2.0 and includes new chapters.
Download or read book Understanding Financial Risk Management written by Angelo Corelli and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2024-05-27 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial risk management is a topic of primary importance in financial markets. It is important to learn how to measure and control risk, how to be primed for the opportunity of compensative return, and how to avoid useless exposure.
Download or read book Recurrence Interval Analysis of Financial Time Series written by Wei-Xing Zhou and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2024-03-21 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Element aims to provide a systemic description of the techniques and research framework of recurrence interval analysis of financial time series. The authors also provide perspectives on future topics in this direction.
Download or read book Self Organized Criticality Three Decades Later written by Subhrangshu Sekhar Manna and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-01-28 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Time Series Clustering and Classification written by Elizabeth Ann Maharaj and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-03-19 with total page 213 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The beginning of the age of artificial intelligence and machine learning has created new challenges and opportunities for data analysts, statisticians, mathematicians, econometricians, computer scientists and many others. At the root of these techniques are algorithms and methods for clustering and classifying different types of large datasets, including time series data. Time Series Clustering and Classification includes relevant developments on observation-based, feature-based and model-based traditional and fuzzy clustering methods, feature-based and model-based classification methods, and machine learning methods. It presents a broad and self-contained overview of techniques for both researchers and students. Features Provides an overview of the methods and applications of pattern recognition of time series Covers a wide range of techniques, including unsupervised and supervised approaches Includes a range of real examples from medicine, finance, environmental science, and more R and MATLAB code, and relevant data sets are available on a supplementary website
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics
Download or read book Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics written by Abraham C.-L. Chian and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-17 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical analysis of stock markets and foreign exchange markets has demonstrated the intermittent nature of economic time series. A nonlinear model of business cycles is able to simulate intermittency arising from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles, which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor and responsible for economic intermittency.
Download or read book Experimental Econophysics written by Ji-Ping Huang and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-08-05 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experimental Econophysics describes the method of controlled human experiments, which is developed by physicists to study some problems in economics or finance, namely, stylized facts, fluctuation phenomena, herd behavior, contrarian behavior, hedge behavior, cooperation, business cycles, partial information, risk management, and stock prediction. Experimental econophysics together with empirical econophysics are two branches of the field of econophysics. The latter one has been extensively discussed in the existing books, while the former one has been seldom touched. In this book, the author will focus on the branch of experimental econophysics. Empirical econophysics is based on the analysis of data in real markets by using some statistical tools borrowed from traditional statistical physics. Differently, inspired by the role of controlled experiments and system modelling (for computer simulations and/or analytical theory) in developing modern physics, experimental econophysics specially relies on controlled human experiments in the laboratory (producing data for analysis) together with agent-based modelling (for computer simulations and/or analytical theory), with an aim at revealing the general cause-effect relationship between specific parameters and emergent properties of real economic/financial markets. This book covers the basic concepts, experimental methods, modelling approaches, and latest progress in the field of experimental econophysics.
Download or read book Quantitative Sociodynamics written by Dirk Helbing and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-15 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When I wrote the book Quantitative Sociodynamics, it was an early attempt to make methods from statistical physics and complex systems theory fruitful for the modeling and understanding of social phenomena. Unfortunately, the ?rst edition appeared at a quite prohibitive price. This was one reason to make these chapters available again by a new edition. The other reason is that, in the meantime, many of the methods discussed in this book are more and more used in a variety of different ?elds. Among the ideas worked out in this book are: 1 • a statistical theory of binary social interactions, • a mathematical formulation of social ?eld theory, which is the basis of social 2 force models, • a microscopic foundation of evolutionary game theory, based on what is known today as ‘proportional imitation rule’, a stochastic treatment of interactions in evolutionary game theory, and a model for the self-organization of behavioral 3 conventions in a coordination game. It, therefore, appeared reasonable to make this book available again, but at a more affordable price. To keep its original character, the translation of this book, which 1 D. Helbing, Interrelations between stochastic equations for systems with pair interactions. Ph- icaA 181, 29–52 (1992); D. Helbing, Boltzmann-like and Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equations as a foundation of behavioral models. PhysicaA 196, 546–573 (1993). 2 D. Helbing, Boltzmann-like and Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equations as a foundation of beh- ioral models. PhysicaA 196, 546–573 (1993); D.
Download or read book Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing written by Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-12-11 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk control and derivative pricing have become of major concern to financial institutions, and there is a real need for adequate statistical tools to measure and anticipate the amplitude of the potential moves of the financial markets. Summarising theoretical developments in the field, this 2003 second edition has been substantially expanded. Additional chapters now cover stochastic processes, Monte-Carlo methods, Black-Scholes theory, the theory of the yield curve, and Minority Game. There are discussions on aspects of data analysis, financial products, non-linear correlations, and herding, feedback and agent based models. This book has become a classic reference for graduate students and researchers working in econophysics and mathematical finance, and for quantitative analysts working on risk management, derivative pricing and quantitative trading strategies.
Download or read book Empirical Science of Financial Fluctuations written by Hideki Takayasu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial fluctuations were generally neglected in classical ecnomics and their basic statistical properties have only recently been elucidated in the emerging field of econophysics, a new science that analyzes data using methods developed by statistical physics, such as chaos, fractals, and phase transitions. This volume is the proceedings of a workshop at which leading international researchers in this discipline discussed their most recent results and examined the validity of the empirical laws of econophysics. Topics include stock market prices and foreign exchange rates, income distribution, market anomalies, and risk management. The papers herein relate econophysics to other models, present new models, and illustrate the mechanisms by which financial fluctuations occur using actual financial data. Containing the most recent econophysics results, this volume will serve as an indispensable reference for economic theorists and practitioners alike.
