Download or read book Risk Levels for Rule Based Weather Decision Aids written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rules-based weather effects decision aids, such as the Tri-Service Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (T-IWEDA), is a "stop-light" type of decision aid. The rules that T-IWEDA uses for differentiating the stop-light boundaries do not sufficiently represent real-world conditions. Within each T-IWEDA band (red/yellow/green) significant variation may occur. According to Army FM-34-81-1, Battlefield Weather Effects, moderate impacts (yellow regions) cover from 25 to 75% reduced normal effectiveness. Within such a large region it is unrealistic to believe that there is not a further gradation of impacts, i.e. a slow transition from red to green, rather than three abrupt, unvarying regions. To mitigate this problem a series of weather specific curves, that transition from red to yellow to green in a continuous manner, have been developed using measured and modeled resources. Parametric curves have been developed for IR sensors, helicopters, and personnel working under varied weather conditions. For a given or forecast weather condition, these curves can be used to represent the level of risk for select systems, sub-systems or components. The technique and curves are applicable for TIWEDA and may also be used as a "penalty" within combat models.
Download or read book Operations Research and Decision Aid Methodologies in Traffic and Transportation Management written by Martine Labbe and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every one relies on some kind of transportation system nearly every day. Go ing to work, shopping, dropping children at school and many other cultural or social activities imply leaving home, and using some form of transportation, which we expect tobe eflicient and reliable. Of course, efliciency and reliabil ity do not occur by chance, but require careful and often relatively complex planning by transportation system managers, both in the public and private sectors. It has long been recognized that mathematics, and, more specifically, op erations research is an important tool of this planning process. However, the range of skills required to cover both fields, even partially, is very large, and the opportunities to gather people with this very diverse expertise are too few. The organization of the NATO Advanced Studies Institute on "Opera tions Research and Decision Aid Methodologies in Traflic and Transportation Management" in March 1997 in Balatonfüred, Hungary, was therefore more than welcome and the group of people that gathered for a very studious two weeks on the shores of the beautiful lake Balaton did really enjoy the truly multidisciplinary and high scientific level of the meeting. The purpose of the present volume is to report, in a chronological order, the various questions that were considered by the lecturers and the' students at the institute. After a general introduction to the topic, the first week focused on issues related to traflic modeling, mostly in an urban context.
Download or read book Decision Making in Aviation written by Don Harris and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making pervades every aspect of life: people make hundreds of decisions every day. The vast majority of these are trivial and without a right or wrong answer. In some respects there is also nothing extraordinary about pilot decision making. It is only the setting that is different - the underlying cognitive processes are just the same. However, it is the context and the consequences of a poor decision which serve to differentiate aeronautical decision making. Decisions on the flight deck are often made with incomplete information and while under time pressure. The implications for inadequate performance is much more serious than in many other professions. Poor decisions are implicated in over half of all aviation accidents. This volume contains key papers published over the last 25 years providing an overview of the major paradigms by which aeronautical decision making has been investigated. Furthermore, decision making does not occur in isolation. It is a joint function of the flight tasks; knowledge; equipment on the flight deck and other stressors. In this volume of collected papers, works from leading authors in the field consider all these aspects of aeronautical decision making.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Research Handbook on Warfare and Artificial Intelligence written by Robin Geiß and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-07-05 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Research Handbook on Warfare and Artificial Intelligence provides a multi-disciplinary exploration of the urgent issues emerging from the increasing use of AI-supported technologies in military operations. Bringing together scholarship from leading experts in the fields of technology and security from across the globe, it sheds light on the wide spectrum of existing and prospective cases of AI in armed conflict.
Download or read book The Risk Analysis Controversy written by Howard C. Kunreuther and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first summer study at IIASA brought together a cross-section of individ uals from different disciplines and nationalities. All the participants have had an interest in the role of risk analysis given the institutional arrangements which guide decision making for new technologies. This book contains edited versions of the papers presented at the meeting as well as a transcript of the discussions which took place. It provides the ingredients for a broader framework fcr studying the problems associated with technology and society where risk is representative of a much wider set of concerns than simply the probability and consequences of a hazardous accident. The Bundesministerium fuer Forschung und Technologie has an interest in promoting risk and safety research because of these new developments in society over the past ten years. In particular, there has been a diminished confidence in experts' statements on risk and a realization that many of the events which are being examined are not subject to detailed scientific analysis. There has also been an increasing recognition that distinctions must be made between analysis of the risk associated with an event and people's values and preferences. Another important development is the concern by the public that they participate more fully in the decision process on these issues. These concerns were articulated in both the papers and the open discussions at the summer study.
Download or read book Flood Risk Science and Management written by Gareth Pender and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Approaches to avoid loss of life and limit disruption and damage from flooding have changed significantly in recent years. Worldwide, there has been a move from a strategy of flood defence to one of flood risk management. Flood risk management includes flood prevention using hard defences, where appropriate, but also requires that society learns to live with floods and that stakeholders living in flood prone areas develop coping strategies to increase their resilience to flood impacts when these occur. This change in approach represents a paradigm shift which stems from the realisation that continuing to strengthen and extend conventional flood defences is unsustainable economically, environmentally, and in terms of social equity. Flood risk management recognises that a sustainable approach must rest on integrated measures that reduce not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. This is essential as increases in the probability of inundation are inevitable in many areas of the world due to climate change, while socio-economic development will lead to spiralling increases in the consequences of flooding unless land use in floodplains is carefully planned. Flood Risk Science and Management provides an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current research in flood management; providing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide range of flood management topics. Its targeted readership is the international research community (from research students through to senior staff) and flood management professionals, such as engineers, planners, government officials and those with flood management responsibility in the public sector. By using the concept of case study chapters, international coverage is given to the topic, ensuring a world-wide relevance.
Download or read book Expert Systems In Developing Countries written by Charles K. Mann and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-03-07 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the pioneering applications of an expert system in development relate to agriculture in many of the developing countries, introducing the reader to some of the key concepts underlying most expert systems.
Download or read book Aphids as Crop Pests 2nd Edition written by Helmut F van Emden and published by CABI. This book was released on 2017-08-23 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aphids are among the major global pest groups, causing serious economic damage to many food and commodity crops in most parts of the world. This revision and update of the well-received first edition published ten years ago reflects the expansion of research in genomics, endosymbionts and semiochemicals, as well as the shift from control of aphids with insecticides to a more integrated approach imposed by increasing resistance in the aphids and government restrictions on pesticides. The book remains a comprehensive and up-to-date reference work on the biology of aphids, the various methods of controlling them and the progress of integrated pest management as illustrated by ten case histories.
Download or read book U S Dairy Industry at a Crossroad written by and published by Office of Technology Assessment. This book was released on 1991 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book U S dairy industry at a crossroad biotechnology and policy choices written by CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES - OFFICE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 1991 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System written by B. D. Lawson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This weather guide includes detailed specifications for locating and instrumenting fire weather stations, taking weather observations, and overwintering the Drought Code component of the FWI System. The sensitivity of the FWI System components to weather elements is represented quantitatively. The importance of weather that is not directly observable is discussed in the context of fuel moisture and fire behavior. Current developments in the observation and measurement of fire weather and the forecasting of fire danger are discussed, along with the implications for the reporting of fire weather of increasingly automated fire management information systems.
Download or read book Rethinking trade rules to achieve a more climate resilient agriculture written by Glauber, Joseph and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-01-19 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent attention has focused on "repurposing" and redirecting agricultural support programs towards achieving environmental, climate and nutritional outcomes. Under these proposals, typically equivalent levels of subsidies and other forms of government support would be focused on the reducing GHG emissions, environmental externalities and other broader public policy objectives such as improving nutrition. But questions arise as to whether new support programs would necessarily be consistent with WTO disciplines. This paper examines various measures aimed at reducing GHG emissions including imposition of carbon standards and taxes, border measures to reduce slippage, and so-called "Climate Smart" domestic support measures and considers how such measures comport with WTO trade rules.
Download or read book New Risks Issues and Management written by Louis A. Cox and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1990-09-30 with total page 736 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains the proceedings of the 1986 annual meeting and conference of the Society for Risk Analysis. It provides a detailed view of both mature disciplines and emerging areas within the fields of health, safety, and environmental risk analysis as they existed in 1986. In selecting and organizing topics for this conference, we sought both (i) to identify and include new ideas and application areas that would be of lasting interest to risk analysts and to users of risk analysis results, and (ii) to include innovative methods and applications in established areas of risk analysis. In the three years since the conference, many of the topics presented there for the first time to a broad risk analysis audience have become well developed-and sometimes hotly debated-areas of applied risk research. Several, such as the public health hazards from indoor air pollutants, radon in the home, high-voltage electric fields, and the AIDS epidemic, have been the subjects of headlines since 1986. Older areas, such as hazardous waste site ranking and remediation, air emissions dispersion modeling and exposure assessment, transportation safety, seismic and nuclear risk assessment, and occupational safety in the chemical industry, have continued to receive new treatments and to benefit from advances in quantitative risk assessment methods, as documented in the theoretical and methodological papers in this volume. A theme of the meeting was the importance of new technologies and the new and uncertain risks that they create.
Download or read book Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-11-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 702 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
