Download or read book Revisiting the Supply Side Equity Risk Premium written by Gaurav Jetley and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is an ongoing debate regarding whether the observed historical equity risk premium is too high to serve as a benchmark for forward-looking equity risk premium. To obtain estimates of forward-looking equity risk premium, a number of models have been proposed that link equity returns to the production of the real economy - the supply-side equity risk premium models. The supply-side models do not take into account any expected growth in the price-to-earnings (“P/E”) ratio because the models assume that the growth in the multiple is not related to actual economic activity. We show that the measures of supply-side equity risk premium that ignore growth in the P/E ratio are likely to be biased downward. This is because a part of the evolution in the P/E multiple can be associated with changes in technological innovation in the economy. Using patent grants as a proxy for technological innovation, we find that a non-trivial fraction of P/E ratio growth can be attributed to the growth of technology innovation, which we posit contributes towards the generation of returns. We also investigate the extent to which the P/E ratio is mean reverting and find that the actual process is consistent with our finding of a relationship between changes in P/E and technological evolution. Our findings suggest that the supply-side equity risk premium should be used with caution as it eliminates a non-trivial portion of returns that seem related to the “supply-side” of the economy.

Download or read book Revisiting the Equity Risk Premium written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001, Martin Leibowitz organized an Equity Risk Premium (ERP) Forum for CFA Institute, in which the participants discussed issues related to the ERP and made estimates for the future. This forum was repeated by Leibowitz, Brett Hammond, and Laurence Siegel in 2011, setting a precedent for a decennial forum. Siegel organized and moderated the discussion in 2021, and the proceedings from that event make up the current book. The participants in 2021 were (in alphabetical order) Robert Arnott, Clifford Asness, Mary Ida Compton, Elroy Dimson, William Goetzmann, Roger Ibbotson, Antti Ilmanen, Martin Leibowitz, Rajnish Mehra, Thomas Philips, and Jeremy Siegel. Each participant made a presentation, which was then discussed by the whole group. Finally, a roundtable discussion involving all of the participants was moderated by Laurence Siegel. Ibbotson and Dimson discussed historical returns in different countries. Ibbotson focused on the United States, while Dimson took a global industrial-country view. The history goes back almost a century (Ibbotson) or more than a century (Dimson), providing a look at how returns have evolved over a wide variety of conditions. Ibbotson also presented his method for making probabilistic forecasts of returns. Dimson, who is British, showed that “American exceptionalism” is one way to understand the results. Asness looked at the effectiveness of Robert Shiller’s CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio) valuation measure for forecasting. Valuations rose over the period he studied, and a lively discussion was had about why this may have occurred. Arnott focused on the growth rate of dividends, which has been very slow in per-share terms, and argued (with much debate from the other participants) that buybacks are only a partial substitute for dividends. Leibowitz, also looking at valuation as the lodestone of return forecasts, set forth a “growth adjustment” that brought his forecast in line with those made by others. Compton, a consultant to pension plans, discussed the challenges of communicating lower expected returns to clients. She also emphasized that expected returns “don’t always come true,” they’re just someone’s best forecast. Ilmanen broke up the expected return into its component parts: dividends, real growth, inflation, and so forth. Doing this, he said, allows one to debate the estimates for each part and ascertain how accurate each of the estimates is. Philips started by presenting a method for forecasting bond returns. He then turned to equities, for which he compared forecasts with subsequent realizations using a variety of forecast methods. Mehra discussed a number of issues related to the existence of premiums (equity risk, value, small cap, and so forth) and concluded that, although some of these are unstable, the ERP is highly stable. Jeremy Siegel advocated a “back to basics” approach using dividend and earnings yields, dividend and earnings growth rates, payout ratios, and price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasized that earnings can be calculated in a number of different way, and said that accounting practices have become more conservative over the years. Goetzmann concluded the session by reporting that one company, a water mill in France, had almost 600 years of historical return data and that an asset pricing model could be tested using those data. According to this model, the stock price is the present value of expected future dividends and is supported by the evidence. In sum, because of high valuations and low interest rates, the participants expect lower total returns in the future than in the past. A forward-looking ERP of 4% to 5% was the consensus of the group.

Download or read book Revisiting the Market Risk Premium written by James M. Sfiridis and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though the profound importance of the market risk premium to finance is unquestioned, its actual measurement has been problematic for both academics and analysts alike. What exactly is the magnitude of the ex post market risk premium? What is its relationship with the expected or ex ante premium? Though finance theory estimates an historical equity premium of 1-2%, simple arithmetic averaging of historical data gives a greater mean of 5-6%, an anomaly known as the equity premium puzzle. More recent findings provide a still greater equity premium point estimate. This paper explores the hypothesis that statistical misspecification of historical equity premium data may be an important contributing factor for such contradictions.

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by Bradford Cornell and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-05-26 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Das Thema Risikoprämie für Aktien (Equity Risk Premium) wird hier zum ersten Mal verständlich erklärt. Die Risikoprämie für Aktien stellt einen Renditeausgleich dar für das erhöhte Risiko, das ein Anleger bei der Investition in Aktien eingeht, im Vergleich zu einer Investition in risikofreie Staatsanleihen. Die Risikoprämie ist zwar von der Theorie her einfach, jedoch in der Praxis ein sehr komplexes Phänomen. Für Finanzentscheidungen ist es von größter Bedeutung, daß man das Prinzip der Risikoprämie versteht und es anwenden kann. Cornell erläutert das Thema Schritt für Schritt sehr anschaulich und ohne terminologischen Ballast. Zunächst wird die Risikoprämie im Zusammenhang mit der Geschichte des Aktienmarktes betrachtet. Der Haussemarkt der 90er dient dabei als Fallstudie. Cornell zeigt, welche Rückschlüsse man durch die Analyse der Risikoprämie im historischen Verlauf für den Aktienmarkt ziehen kann, z.B. ob Aktienkurse steigen oder fallen oder ob sich der Aktienmarkt verändert. Vorausschauende Schätzungen der Risikoprämie werden anhand verschiedener konkurrierender Modelle analysiert, wobei die Vorzüge der jeweiligen Methode mitbewertet werden. 'Equity Risk Premium' ist das erste Buch, das dieses wichtige Prinzip der Risiko-Nutzen-Analyse erschöpfend behandelt. Es vermittelt einen tiefen Einblick und deckt alle Grundlagen ab, damit Investoren fundierte Finanzentscheidungen treffen können. Ein absolutes Muß für institutionelle Anleger, Geldmanager und Finanzvorstände, die auf eine fundierte Marktanalyse zurückgreifen müssen. (06/99)

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium Puzzle Revisited written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Equity Premium Revisited written by Bradford Cornell and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent collapse of the stock market has refocused attention on the question of the equity risk premium. One of the most comprehensive studies of the equity premium, completed by Fama and French in 2000, is now significantly out of date and requires refreshing. This article provides that update. We find that various procedures for estimating the premium from historical data are now converging to an annual equity premium over short-term commercial paper on the order of four percent.

Download or read book Revisiting the Supply side Effects of Government Spending written by Vasia Panousi and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by Laurence B. Siegel and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Chicago Plan Revisited written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

Download or read book Australia s Fiscal Framework Revisiting Options for a Fiscal Anchor written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor that has led to larger than expected upward drift in the net debt to GDP ratio since the end of the mining investment boom. The IMF’s G20MOD model is used to compare the budget balance anchor with a long-term debt anchor. Using model simulations evaluated against objective macro stabilization-debt control criteria under three likely scenarios for the Australian economy, the latter is found to perform at least as well as the former. The paper also considers the operationalization of a long-term debt anchor utilizing a combination of fiscal rules which includes expenditure restrictions and a flexible time horizon for convergence, aiming at encouraging countercyclical fiscal policy and minimizing the cost in terms of real GDP foregone in the medium term under fiscal consolidation.

Download or read book Revisiting Rental Housing written by Nicolas P. Retsinas and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2008-07-01 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Brookings Institution Press and Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies publication Rental housing is increasingly recognized as a vital housing option in the United States. Government policies and programs continue to grapple with problematic issues, however, including affordability, distressed urban neighborhoods, concentrated poverty, substandard housing stock, and the unmet needs of the disabled, the elderly, and the homeless. In R evisiting Rental Housing, leading housing researchers build upon decades of experience, research, and evaluation to inform our understanding of the nation's rental housing challenges and what can be done about them. It thoughtfully addresses not only present issues affecting rental housing, but also viable solutions. The first section reviews the contributing factors and primary problems generated by the operation of rental markets. In the second section, contributors dissect how policies and programs have—or have not—dealt with the primary challenges; what improvements—if any—have been gained; and the lessons learned in the process. The final section looks to potential new directions in housing policy, including integrating best practices from past lessons into existing programs, and new innovations for large-scale, long-term market and policy solutions that get to the root of rental housing challenges. Contributors include William C. Apgar (Harvard University), Anthony Downs (Brookings), Rachel Drew (Harvard University), Ingrid Gould Ellen (New York University), George C. Galster (Wayne State University), Bruce Katz (Brookings), Jill Khadduri (Abt Associates), Shekar Narasimhan (Beekman Advisors), Rolf Pendall (Cornell University), John M. Quigley (University of California–Berkeley), James A. Riccio (MDRC), Stuart S. Rosenthal (Syracuse University), Margery Austin Turner (Urban Institute), and Charles Wilkins (Compass Group).

Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.

Download or read book Capital Taxation with Entrepreneurial Risk written by Vasia Panousi and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Revisiting EU Policy Options for Tackling Climate Change written by Christian Egenhofer and published by CEPS. This book was released on 2006 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book is the result of a one-year project undertaken jointly by the Energy research Centre Netherlands (ECN) and the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS). The analysis is presented in two parts. Part I, which is mainly the responsibility of CEPS, presents Policy Conclusions. Part II, contributed principally by ECN, consists of the Technical Report that contains the literature reviews and the calculations. Both parts are written in such a way that they can be used as stand-alone reports. An overview of the book is presented in an Executive Summary" -- P. [4] of cover.

Download or read book Financial Integration Entrepreneurial Risk and Global Dynamics written by George-Marios Angeletos and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does financial integration impact capital accumulation, current-account dynamics, and cross-country inequality? This paper investigates this question within a two-country, general-equilibrium, incomplete-markets model that focuses on the importance of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk -- a risk that introduces, not only a precautionary motive for saving, but also a wedge between the interest rate and the marginal product of capital. This friction provides a simple resolution to the empirical puzzle that capital often fails to flow from the rich or slow-growing countries to the poor or fast-growing ones, and a distinct set of policy lessons regarding the intertemporal costs and benefits of capital-account liberalization. Illus. A print on demand report.

Download or read book Quantitative Investment Analysis written by Richard A. DeFusco and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-10-15 with total page 635 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Your complete guide to quantitative analysis in the investment industry Quantitative Investment Analysis, Third Edition is a newly revised and updated text that presents you with a blend of theory and practice materials to guide you through the use of statistics within the context of finance and investment. With equal focus on theoretical concepts and their practical applications, this approachable resource offers features, such as learning outcome statements, that are targeted at helping you understand, retain, and apply the information you have learned. Throughout the text's chapters, you explore a wide range of topics, such as the time value of money, discounted cash flow applications, common probability distributions, sampling and estimation, hypothesis testing, and correlation and regression. Applying quantitative analysis to the investment process is an important task for investment pros and students. A reference that provides even subject matter treatment, consistent mathematical notation, and continuity in topic coverage will make the learning process easier—and will bolster your success. Explore the materials you need to apply quantitative analysis to finance and investment data—even if you have no previous knowledge of this subject area Access updated content that offers insight into the latest topics relevant to the field Consider a wide range of subject areas within the text, including chapters on multiple regression, issues in regression analysis, time-series analysis, and portfolio concepts Leverage supplemental materials, including the companion Workbook and Instructor's Manual, sold separately Quantitative Investment Analysis, Third Edition is a fundamental resource that covers the wide range of quantitative methods you need to know in order to apply quantitative analysis to the investment process.

Download or read book Rethinking the Equity Risk Premium written by P. Brett Hammond and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2001, a small group of academics and practitioners met to discuss the equity risk premium (ERP). Ten years later, in 2011, a similar discussion took place, with participants writing up their thoughts for this volume. The result is a rich set of papers that practitioners may find useful in developing their own approach to the subject.