Download or read book Relationship Between Inflation News and High Frequency Stock Returns written by Lianqun Sun and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Increases or decreases in stock prices will determine how much an investor0́9s wealth will shrink or grow in the stock market. One set of important factors that influences the stock market is macroeconomic indicators, like inflation news. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and The Producer Price Index (PPI) are among the most important measures of inflation conditions and overall economic conditions. Adams, McQueen and Wood have already identified the relationship between inflation news and stock return. In their paper published in 2004, they found the unexpected increases in both PPI and CPI could cause stock prices to fall. In their paper, they explored the responses of stock intraday data and the unexpected changes in the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index before and on the news announcement date from 1977 to 1987.

Download or read book The Effects of Inflation News on High Frequency Stock Returns written by Greg Adams and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous research using daily returns finds conflicting evidence about the relationship between unanticipated inflation (news) and stock returns. We explore the relationship by looking at the response (in minutes and trades) of size-based stock portfolios to the news (controlling for expectations) imbedded in the regularly scheduled Producer Price (PPI) and Consumer Price (CPI) Index announcements. In particular, we answer the following four questions: 1) Do stocks respond to inflation news? 2) Why is the response to PPI news more significant than the response to CPI news? 3) Why do large stocks, but not small stocks, respond significantly to PPI news? and 4) What is the speed and path of that response? In the process of answering these four questions, we also note that varying response speeds to inflation news cannot explain the cross-autocorrelation puzzle.

Download or read book Stock Returns and Inflation Redux An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets written by Mr. Zhongxia Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.

Download or read book Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2002-01-03 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.

Download or read book The Relationship Between Stock Returns and Inflation written by Choon Seng Lim and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Why Does the Fed Move Markets So Much written by Carolin Pflueger and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We build a new model integrating a work-horse New Keynesian model with investor risk aversion that moves with the business cycle. We show that the same habit preferences that explain the equity volatility puzzle in quarterly data also naturally explain the large high-frequency stock response to Federal Funds rate surprises. In the model, a surprise increase in the short-term interest rate lowers output and consumption relative to habit, thereby raising risk aversion and amplifying the fall in stocks. The model explains the positive correlation between changes in breakeven inflation and stock returns around monetary policy announcements with long-term inflation news.

Download or read book Stock Returns Inflation and the Proxy Hypothesis written by Pierluigi Balduzzi and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reexamines the proxy hypothesis of Fama (American Economic Review, 1981, 71, 545-565) as the main explanation for the negative correlation between stock returns and inflation. We look at quarterly data on industrial-production growth, monetary-base growth, CPI inflation, three-month Treasury-bill rates, and returns on the equally-weighted NYSE portfolio, for the 1954-1976 and 1977-1990 periods. Using time-series techniques, we find that production growth induces only a weak negative correlation between inflation and stock returns, and explains less of the covariance between the two series than inflation and interest-rate innovations.

Download or read book The Relationship Between Inflation and Stock Return Revisited written by Mohammed A. Abu-Ali and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation News and the Stock Market written by Johan Knif and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous studies find only a weak relationship between inflation news and stock market returns. We show that significant daily market reactions to different types of inflation shocks occur in dynamic economic states. Also, although previous work has not examined longer-run market reactions, our results demonstrate large, significant, and slow market responses to both positive and negative inflation shocks in the post-event month. Stock return reversals are common in months subsequent to large market response to inflation shocks. In both daily and monthly analyses we find instances in which stock returns are not inversely related to inflation shocks. These and other findings lead us to conclude that inflation shocks are important news events that can produce a variety of stock market reactions depending on economic state and type of inflation shock. Our evidence also suggests that inflation shocks can generate stock market overreactions in some cases.

Download or read book IMPACT OF INFLATION ON EQUITY STOCK RETURNS AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SELECT INDIAN BLUE CHIP COMPANIES written by Evuru Poleraiah and published by Epoleraiah Books. This book was released on 2022-11-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is a state of economic condition in which there will be an increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. This book is about a study that attempts to give in-depth understanding of all aspects of inflation such as measurement of inflation, various prevailing hypothesis, relation between inflation & stock markets, causes and effects of inflation economics. It details causes, reasons & lessons from inflation and deals about the cost of inflation. The topics of CPI, other causes of inflation, fiscal deficits, effects of inflation and various types of inflation are described. Literature review is presented. Following aspects of study are made available. (1) Evaluation of the stock price movements and performance of BSE 30 stocks, (2) Examining the relationship between Inflation and stock returns of sample stocks, (3) Scrutinizing the relation between inflation and sample industries, (4) Understanding the impact of inflation on individual company performance and (5) Investigating causes for inflation and effect on stocks Research methodology is outlined and conceptual and statistical tools applied for analysis are detailed. Data Analysis of Stock Price Performance and Impact of Inflation on Industries are covered. The book covers the study aimed to understand and measure the impact of inflation on individual stock returns and industries. Based on the prior research it is assumed that inflation have negative impact on stock returns and stock markets. Earlier studies reported mixed results. Very few studies reported that inflation will have negative impact on stock returns. At the same time there are studies which argue that inflation will have positive impact on stock returns. On the other hand there are studies which do not find any statistically significant association between inflation and stock returns.

Download or read book On the Dynamics of Inflation Stock Returns in India written by Avishek Bhandari and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, an attempt is made to examine the relationship between inflation and stock returns in India using spectral and time-frequency methods. Scale specific relation between inflation and stock returns is unraveled, allowing us to capture the relationship at varying investment horizons. The results based on monthly data from 1994:5 to 2014:11, obtained using spectral and wavelet techniques, reveal that there exist no significant pro-cyclical interdependencies between inflation and stock returns, implying that stock returns are no longer an adequate hedge against inflation.

Download or read book How and When are High Frequency Stock Returns Predictable written by Yacine Aït-Sahalia and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and transactions events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent, predictability in high frequency returns and durations is large, systematic and pervasive over short horizons. We identify the relevant predictors constructed from trades and quotes data and examine what determines the variation in predictability across different stock's own characteristics and market environments. Next, we compute how the predictability improves with the timeliness of the data on a scale of milliseconds, providing a valuation of each millisecond gained. Finally, we simulate the impact of getting an (imperfect) peek at the incoming order flow, a look ahead ability that is often attributed to the fastest high frequency traders, in terms of improving the predictability of the following returns and durations.

Download or read book Relationship Between Inflation and Stock Returns Evidence from BRICS Markets Using Panel Co Integration Test written by Vanita Tripathi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stocks are generally considered to be a good hedge against inflation because of their tendency to move together. This paper examines long term relationship between inflation and stock returns in BRICS markets using panel data for the period from March 2000 to September 2013. Correlation results reveal a significant negative relationship between stock index and inflation rate for Russia and a significantly positive relationship for India & China. ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests indicate non-stationary characteristic of the data. Further we find no long term co-integrating relationship between stock index values and inflation rates using Pedroni panel co integration test. These findings have important implications for policy makers, regulators and investment community at large. There may seem to be short term contemporaneous relationship between inflation and equity returns but in the long run they do not seem to be significantly integrated. Changes in inflation may bring some short run movement in stock return but certainly equity does not seem to be a good hedge against inflation in long run at least in emerging BRICS markets.

Download or read book The Relation Between Stock Returns and Inflation written by Stephen Thomas and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Three Essays on Stock Returns and Inflation written by Sang-yŏng Chu and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Relation Between Stock Returns and Expected Inflation written by Gregory O'Rourke and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: