Download or read book Regional Spillover Effects from Iraq s Upheaval written by Borje Ostergard and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here, the authors examine some of the most significant ongoing transnational or 'spillover' problems associated with the continuing conflict in Iraq, with particular attention being paid to those problems that could disrupt or even undermine the stability of regional states beyond Iraq.

Download or read book Regional Spillover Effects of the Iraq War written by W. Andrew Terrill and published by . This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author examines some of the most significant ongoing transnational or "spillover" problems associated with the continuing conflict in Iraq, with particular attention being paid to those problems that could disrupt or even undermine the stability of regional states beyond Iraq. Spillover issues addressed include: (1) refugees and displaced persons fleeing Iraq in large numbers for neighboring countries, (2) crossborder terrorism, (3) intensification of separatism and sectarian discord among Iraq's neighbors fueled by conflict in Iraq, and (4) transnational crime. This work assumes that spillover influencing neighboring states will continue to occur even in best case scenarios where the Iraqi government rapidly assumes full sovereignty over the entire country in ways that allow it to provide security and stability to most of the population. In the perhaps more likely event that Iraq continues to wrestle with serious internal conflict, cross border spillover problems could be significantly more intense. This monograph is designed to serve as an overview of the present dangers for Iraq's neighbors and may intensify as a result of the ongoing conflict within Iraq. It assumes that no amount of U.S. effort and resources can compensate for Iraqis who are not willing or able to address the serious problems that still exist in organizing their society in ways that promote stability and minimize internal division. It is important that any future setbacks in the strategic situation in Iraq do not lead to intensified problems in the wider Middle East because U.S. strategists and policymakers focus so directly on short-term Iraqi issues that they fail to address how Iraqi problems influence the wider region. The time to begin dealing with the potential dangers of serious spillover problems is immediately, and not after the United States begins to withdraw from Iraq. The alternative approach, which is to assume that the United States will "fix" Iraq and therefore not have to deal with spillover issues, presupposes an almost perfect longterm outcome to the present situation, and is therefore a considerable gamble. At the present time, the danger of spillover problems involving Sunni-Shi'ite sectarian and Arab-Kurdish ethnic strife that moves beyond Iraq is probably more threatening to U.S. interests than any other spillover effect, including the Iraqi refugee crisis, terrorism, and Iraqi-based transnational crime. All of these issues are nevertheless important, and they must therefore be addressed by a comprehensive strategy.

Download or read book Regional Spillover Effects of the Iraq War written by W. Terrill and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2012-03-10 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic thought. Such a technique, while understandable, cannot continue indefinitely as an approach to policy. Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential "spillover" from the Iraq war. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill presents ideas, concerns, and strategies that can help to fill this gap in the literature and enrich the debate on the actual and potential spillover effects of the Iraq war that will face U.S. policymakers, possibly for decades. Regional spillover problems associated with the Iraq war need to be considered and addressed even in the event of strong future success in building the new Iraq. In less optimistic scenarios, these issues will become even more important. Spillover issues addressed herein include: (1) the flow of refugees and displaced persons from Iraq, (2) cross-border terrorism, (3) the potential intensification of separatism and sectarian discord among Iraq's neighbors, and (4) transnational crime. All of these problems will be exceptionally important in the Middle East in the coming years and perhaps decades, and trends involving these issues will need to be closely monitored. Of these problems, Dr. Terrill clearly is especially concerned with the spread of sectarian divisions which, if not properly managed, can have devastating regional consequences. This monograph, however, forms an important baseline useful for considering future trends in each of the areas that he has identified. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer this monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this important subject as our nation continues to grapple with a variety of problems associated with the U.S. presence in Iraq and the larger Middle East. This analysis should be especially useful to U.S. strategic leaders as they seek to address the complicated interplay of factors related to Middle Eastern security issues and the support of local allies. It may also be useful to those considering how to optimize the U.S. national interest in dealing with nonallied states within the region. This work may also benefit those seeking a greater understanding of long-range issues of Middle Eastern security. We hope this monograph will benefit officers of all services as well as other U.S. Government officials visiting Iraq and its neighbors.

Download or read book Spillover from the Conflict in Syria written by William Young and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2014-08-27 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All roads lead to Damascus and then back out again, but in different directions. The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from patrons and neighbors is intended to determine the outcome of the conflict between a loose confederation of rebel factions and the regime in Damascus. Instead, this outside support has the potential to perpetuate the existing civil war and to ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shia areas that could reshape the political geography of the Middle East. This report examines the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.

Download or read book Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East written by MissRanda Sab and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance.

Download or read book The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Bjoern Rother and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

Download or read book The Middle East written by Ellen Lust and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2016-05-10 with total page 1057 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Fourteenth Edition of The Middle East, Ellen Lust brings important new coverage to this comprehensive, balanced, and superbly researched text. In clear prose, Lust and her outstanding contributors explain the many complex changes taking place across the region. New to this edition is a country profile chapter on Sudan by Fareed Hassan. All country chapters now address domestic and regional conflict more explicitly, and all tables, figures, boxes, and maps have been fully updated with the most recent data and information.

Download or read book The Water Energy and Food Security Nexus in the Arab Region written by Kamel Amer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-12-01 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates the need for a more open and interdisciplinary dialogue on the nexus of food, water and energy security in the Arab region. It argues that achieving sustainable economic development is irretrievably tied to the security of the water–energy–food nexus, which is in turn essential for bringing about sustained peace. Further, it discusses various approaches to achieving these lofty objectives, and offers the following take-away messages: The Arab region is currently under considerable water stress, and the situation will continue to get worse with a number of global changes – most notably those related to climate and regional water distribution. Viable solutions are available in the Arab region and can be implemented through innovative policies, judicious use of new technologies, and stimulating public opinion. Integration across water, energy, and food sectors is obviously needed but achieving it in practice is extremely challenging. There are some gaps in the scientific understanding but at the same time there is a wealth of data and synthesized information that can guide decision-making.

Download or read book Iraq and the Gulf States written by Jon B. Alterman and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Rethinking State Non State Alliances written by Ozum Yesiltas and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-07-26 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thriving in the context of political vacuums created by state weakness, the armed non-state actors in the Middle East, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Kurds increasingly demonstrate features of both state and non-state actors and act autonomously in their foreign policy. Rethinking State-Non-State Alliances: Change and Continuity in the U.S.-Kurdish Relationship investigates the growing influence of Middle Eastern non-state actors as agents of foreign policy through an analysis of the U.S.-Kurdish relationship. Ozum Yesiltas analyzes the underlying causes of increased U.S.-Kurdish cooperation since the early 1990s and addresses the extent to which existing approaches in international relations are adequate in explaining the changing political landscape in the Middle East that brought the U.S. and Kurds together in new ways. Yesiltas draws attention to the ways in which U.S-Kurdish interactions contributed to the escalation of Kurdish nationalism as a transnational phenomenon, and how the growing saliency of Kurdish transnational politics reshapes U.S. foreign policy and broader regional order.

Download or read book Regional and International Powers in the Gulf Security written by Alaa Al-Din Arafat and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-04-21 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the threats and challenges facing the Persian Gulf and the future security in the region, providing an overview of the major regional and extra-regional actors in Gulf security. It argues that except for Iran, no regional or extra-regional actors, including the United States, China, India and Russia, have developed a strategy for Persian Gulf security, and only Turkey has expressed a willingness to provide security for the region. Importantly, the major threats to Persian Gulf security are nonconventional, rather than external, threats to Iranian hegemony or the balance of power. In conclusion, it predicts that the power struggle in the Persian Gulf in the coming decades will be between Iran and Turkey, and not between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This book is of interest to diplomats, journalists, international affairs specialists, strategists and scholars of Gulf politics and security and defence studies.

Download or read book Conflict and War in the Middle East written by Bassam Tibi and published by Springer. This book was released on 1998-09-28 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few studies of Middle East wars go beyond a narrative of events and most tend to impose on this subject the rigid scheme of superpower competition. The Gulf War of 1991, however, challenges this view of the Middle East as an extension of the global conflict. The failure of the accord of both superpowers to avoid war even once regional superpower competition in the Middle East had ceased must give rise to the question: Do regional conflicts have their own dynamic? Working from this assumption, the book examines local-regional constraints of Middle East conflict and how, through escalation and the involvement of extra-regional powers, such conflicts acquire an international dimension. The theory of a regional subsystem is employed as a framework for conceptualising this interplay between regional and international factors in Tibi's examination of the Middle East wars in the period 1967-91. Tibi also provides an outlook into the future of conflict in the Middle East in the aftermath of the most recent Gulf War.

Download or read book Syria as an Arena of Strategic Competition written by Jeffrey Martini and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013-03-13 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict, and external actors have become involved as well. RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play, including the actors, their motivations, and potential impact of their activities.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook April 2011 Middle East and Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-27 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia provides an in-depth look at the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). Four chapters deal with MENAP oil exporters, MENAP oil importers, policy challenges facing MENAP, and sustaining the recovery in the CCA countries. Two developments mark the outlook for the MENAP region: the social and political unrest and the surge in global fuel and food prices, which have resulted in unusually large uncertainties in the near-term economic outlook. Meanwhile, growth in the CCA countries was higher than expected. Three main policy challenges to CCA countries are rising inflation, heightened social pressures to spend, and the poor quality of bank portfolios. Job creation and poverty reduction are key objectives for all CCA countries.

Download or read book Peace Operations written by Donald C. F. Daniel and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2008-07-30 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trends in the number and scope of peace operations since 2000 evidence heightened international appreciation for their value in crisis-response and regional stabilization. Peace Operations: Trends, Progress, and Prospects addresses national and institutional capacities to undertake such operations, by going beyond what is available in previously published literature. Part one focuses on developments across regions and countries. It builds on data- gathering projects undertaken at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies (CPASS), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA) that offer new information about national contributions to operations and about the organizations through which they make those contributions. The information provides the bases for arriving at unique insights about the characteristics of contributors and about the division of labor between the United Nations and other international entities. Part two looks to trends and prospects within regions and nations. Unlike other studies that focus only on regions with well-established track records—specifically Europe and Africa—this book also looks to the other major areas of the world and poses two questions concerning them: If little or nothing has been done institutionally in a region, why not? What should be expected? This groundbreaking volume will help policymakers and academics understand better the regional and national factors shaping the prospects for peace operations into the next decade.

Download or read book Coercing Compliance written by Robert Mandel and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2015-02-04 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few global security issues stimulate more fervent passion than the application of brute force. Despite the fierce debate raging about it in government, society and the Academy, inadequate strategic understanding surrounds the issue, prompting the urgent need for —the first comprehensive systematic global analysis of 21st century state-initiated internal and external applications of brute force. Based on extensive case evidence, Robert Mandel assesses the short-term and long-term, the local and global, the military, political, economic, and social, and the state and human security impacts of brute force. He explicitly isolates the conditions under which brute force works best and worst by highlighting force initiator and force target attributes linked to brute force success and common but low-impact force legitimacy concerns. Mandel comes to two major overarching conclusions. First, that the modern global application of brute force shows a pattern of futility—but one that is more a function of states' misapplication of brute force than of the inherent deficiencies of this instrument itself. Second, that the realm for successful application of state-initiated brute force is shrinking: for while state-initiated brute force can serve as a transitional short-run local military solution, he says, it cannot by itself provide a long-run global strategic solution or serve as a cure for human security problems. Taking the evidence and his conclusions together, Mandel provides policy advice for managing brute force use in the modern world.

Download or read book Jordan written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-07 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Jordan’s economy continues to show resilience despite a challenging external environment. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, inflation is low, and reserve buffers are strong. Growth is projected to pick up pace in 2025, contingent upon the Israel-Gaza conflict ending and its impact fading. Uncertainty is high, however, and structural challenges remain, with continued high unemployment.