Download or read book Rational Responses to Risks written by Paul Weirich and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A philosophical account of risk, such as this book provides, states what risk is, which attitudes to it are rational, and which acts affecting risks are rational. Attention to the nature of risk reveals two types of risk, first, a chance of a bad event, and, second, an act's risk in the sense of the volatility of its possible outcomes. The distinction is normatively significant because different general principles of rationality govern attitudes to these two types of risk. Rationality strictly regulates attitudes to the chance of a bad event and is more permissive about attitudes to an act's risk. Principles of rationality governing attitudes to risk also justify evaluating an act according to its expected utility given that the act's risk, if any, belongs to every possible outcome of the act. For a rational ideal agent, the expected utilities of the acts available in a decision problem explain the agent's preferences among the acts. Maximizing expected utility is just following preferences among the acts. This view takes an act's expected utility, not just as a feature of a representation of preferences among acts, but also as a factor in the explanation of preferences among acts. It takes account of an agent's attitudes to an act's risk without weakening the standard of expected-utility maximization. The view extends to evaluations of combination of acts, either simultaneous or in a sequence. Applications cover hedging, return-risk evaluation, professional advice, and government regulation"--

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Rational Action written by Carlo C. Jaeger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

Download or read book Catastrophe written by Richard A. Posner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2004-11-11 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Rational Action written by Carlo C. Jaeger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

Download or read book Rational Risk Policy written by W. Kip Viscusi and published by Clarendon Press. This book was released on 1998-03-12 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Risk Policy is based on Viscusi's Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures, delivered at Lund University in 1996. The organizing principle of these lectures is that the irrationality of individual decisions is often embodied in government regulations. Rather than overcoming the inadequacies in individual risk beliefs and behaviour, governmental regulations often institutionalize them. Viscusi examines how consumers and workers perceive risk and the implications of these risk beliefs and behavioural responses to risk for government policy. Hazard warnings efforts, direct regulation, and liability are among the alternative modes of intervention. The role of risk tradeoffs with respect to the value of life as well as the consequences of wasteful regulatory expenditures are considered in a discussion of riskrisk analysis. Rational Risk Policy also includes a critique of the risk analysis practices used by government agencies as well as a consideration of how liability and social insurance should be integrated into a rational risk management strategy.

Download or read book Medicines and Risk Benefit Decisions written by S.R. Walker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The third CMR Workshop prov. ided the opportunity for a group of experts from the Industry, academia and the regulatory authorities to meet and discuss ways and means by which risk benefit decisions are made during the various stages of drug development. It became apparent from the discussions that took place in October 1985, at the CIBA Foundation, that decisions are often made with limited data and inadequate methodology. The conclusions drawn from the day's deliberations were as follows: 1. Current methodology for assessing risk and particularly benefits must be improved; 2. Safety must be assessed in association with benefits as it is ultimately the benefit/ risk ratio which should decide the future of medicines; 3. Risks from medicines must always be viewed in relation to the risks from untreated diseases. It seemed to be the consensus of the group that such a meeting was both useful and informative and, hopefully, the publication of these proceedings will stimulate further discussion in this important area which may improve the decision-making process in drug development. The Editors wish to thank the participants for contributing to the Work shop, together with Dr. Cyndy Lumley for providing the initial transcript of the meeting and Mrs Sheila Wright for producing the final version and for carrying out all the additional work that is entailed in producing such a publication. Professor S. R. Walker A. W.

Download or read book Risk and Decision Making written by and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1982-01-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Failure of Risk Management written by Douglas W. Hubbard and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-03-04 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to adopting an accurate risk analysis methodology The Failure of Risk Management provides effective solutionstosignificantfaults in current risk analysis methods. Conventional approaches to managing risk lack accurate quantitative analysis methods, yielding strategies that can actually make things worse. Many widely used methods have no systems to measure performance, resulting in inaccurate selection and ineffective application of risk management strategies. These fundamental flaws propagate unrealistic perceptions of risk in business, government, and the general public. This book provides expert examination of essential areas of risk management, including risk assessment and evaluation methods, risk mitigation strategies, common errors in quantitative models, and more. Guidance on topics such as probability modelling and empirical inputs emphasizes the efficacy of appropriate risk methodology in practical applications. Recognized as a leader in the field of risk management, author Douglas W. Hubbard combines science-based analysis with real-world examples to present a detailed investigation of risk management practices. This revised and updated second edition includes updated data sets and checklists, expanded coverage of innovative statistical methods, and new cases of current risk management issues such as data breaches and natural disasters. Identify deficiencies in your current risk management strategy and take appropriate corrective measures Adopt a calibrated approach to risk analysis using up-to-date statistical tools Employ accurate quantitative risk analysis and modelling methods Keep pace with new developments in the rapidly expanding risk analysis industry Risk analysis is a vital component of government policy, public safety, banking and finance, and many other public and private institutions. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It is a valuable resource for business leaders, policy makers, managers, consultants, and practitioners across industries.

Download or read book Risk and Acceptability written by Mary Douglas and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-04-15 with total page 119 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1985, Mary Douglas intended Risk and Acceptability as a review of the existing literature on the state of risk theory. Unsatisfied with the current studies of risk, which she found to be flawed by individualistic and psychologistic biases, she instead uses the book to argue risk analysis from an anthropological perspective. Douglas raises questions about rational choice, the provision of public good and the autonomy of the individual.

Download or read book Risk Communication and Vaccination written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-08-10 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Risk written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2009-02-24 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.

Download or read book Risk Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions

Download or read book Social Theories of Risk written by Sheldon Krimsky and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1992-08-30 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The social science approach to risk has matured over the past two decades, with distinct paradigms developing in disciplines such as anthropology, economics, geography, psychology, and sociology. Social Theories of Risk traces the intellectual origins and histories of twelve of the established and emerging paradigms from the perspective of their principal proponents. Each contributor examines the underlying assumptions of his or her paradigm, the foundational issue it seeks to address, and likely future directions of research. Taken together, these essays illustrate that the principal achievement of social sciences has been to broaden the debate about risk beyond the narrow, technical considerations of engineers and the physical and life sciences. The authors conclude that expert knowledge is not value-free, that public perceptions of and attitudes toward risks vary according to a wide range of social, psychological, and cultural variables, and that public opposition to particular risks cannot be assuaged by technical fixes. The essays reveal the circuitous paths that lead people to the study of risk, highlight how these paths have crossed and discuss some of the seminal influences on individuals and the field in general. Social Theories of Risk presents a broad, retrospective view of the state of the theory in the social sciences, written by many who have been on the cutting edge of risk research since its early days. The book includes both established and novel perspectives that address the theoretical foundations of the field and reflect what we know about risk as a psychological, social, and cultural phenomenon. The collection of papers not only informs us of the tributary ideas that spawned the social studies of risk, but also how the field has matured. The biographical flavor of the essays provides fascinating reading for established members of the field, and a valuable entree for newcomers. It is an ideal college text for courses in the history of science, environmental policy, and science, technology, and society, as well as the burgeoning array of more specialized courses in risk assessment and management.

Download or read book Risk written by Dan Gardner and published by Virgin Books Limited. This book was released on 2008 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day, we suffer a barrage of information about the threat of terrorism, war and apocalypse. But while we are preoccupied by our fears, the real risk of these obscure annihilating events taking place is about as likely as winning the lottery. In this ground-breaking new book, Dan Gardner explains our 'risk perception' through our brains' two simultaneous responses to risk - the ancient 'fight or flight' instinct and the rational considered response. How do we make choices amidst the bombardment of information we experience every day? And to what extent is that information manipulated to provoke a particular reaction from the public? To discover the answers, Dan Gardner speaks to economists, politicians, psychologists and media commentators, with entertaining and often surprising results.

Download or read book Rationality Concepts in Environmental Valuation written by Oliver Frör and published by Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften. This book was released on 2007 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Survey based valuation techniques like the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) rely particularly on the premise of respondents' rationality when answering willingness to pay (WTP) questions. Results of CVM surveys have repeatedly put this fundamental assumption into question. This study adopts a more realistic view of rationality accounting for respondents' limited capacities to process information. Based on cognitive psychology a technique to detect and analyze the bounds of rationality inherent in WTP statements is developed. Using an empirical example, the influence of bounded rationality on the validity of CVM results is analyzed. It is shown that individual differences in information processing play a major role. From these results recommendations for future survey design are developed.

Download or read book Risk and Rationality written by Lara Buchak and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-11 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lara Buchak sets out a new account of rational decision-making in the face of risk. She argues that the orthodox view (expected utility theory) is too narrow, and suggests an alternative, more permissive theory: one that allows individuals to pay attention to the worst-case or best-case scenario, and vindicates the ordinary decision-maker.

Download or read book The Science of Adolescent Risk Taking written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-02-25 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adolescence is a time when youth make decisions, both good and bad, that have consequences for the rest of their lives. Some of these decisions put them at risk of lifelong health problems, injury, or death. The Institute of Medicine held three public workshops between 2008 and 2009 to provide a venue for researchers, health care providers, and community leaders to discuss strategies to improve adolescent health.