Download or read book Rational Expectations written by Steven M. Sheffrin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1996-06-13 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops the idea of rational expectations and surveys its use in economics today.
Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Download or read book Rational Expectations Econometrics written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, applies complexity modelling to economics and finance.
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-05 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist's classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.
Download or read book Assessing Rational Expectations 2 written by R. Guesnerie and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test.
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.
Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.
Download or read book Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2021-03-31 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligent machines are populating our social, economic and political spaces. These intelligent machines are powered by Artificial Intelligence technologies such as deep learning. They are used in decision making. One element of decision making is the issue of rationality. Regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) require that decisions that are made by these intelligent machines are explainable. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence proposes that explainable decisions are good but the explanation must be rational to prevent these decisions from being challenged. Noted author Tshilidzi Marwala studies the concept of machine rationality and compares this to the rationality bounds prescribed by Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon and rationality bounds derived from the work of Nobel Laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence describes why machine rationality is flexibly bounded due to advances in technology. This effectively means that optimally designed machines are more rational than human beings. Readers will also learn whether machine rationality can be quantified and identify how this can be achieved. Furthermore, the author discusses whether machine rationality is subjective. Finally, the author examines whether a population of intelligent machines collectively make more rational decisions than individual machines. Examples in biomedical engineering, social sciences and the financial sectors are used to illustrate these concepts. - Provides an introduction to the key questions and challenges surrounding Rational Machines, including, When do we rely on decisions made by intelligent machines? What do decisions made by intelligent machines mean? Are these decisions rational or fair? Can we quantify these decisions? and Is rationality subjective? - Introduces for the first time the concept of rational opportunity costs and the concept of flexibly bounded rationality as a rationality of intelligent machines and the implications of these issues on the reliability of machine decisions - Includes coverage of Rational Counterfactuals, group versus individual rationality, and rational markets - Discusses the application of Moore's Law and advancements in Artificial Intelligence, as well as developments in the area of data acquisition and analysis technologies and how they affect the boundaries of intelligent machine rationality
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book The Evolving Rationality of Rational Expectations written by Esther-Mirjam Sent and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-08-13 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses the historical evolution of rational expectations by focusing on the changing ideas of Thomas Sargent.
Download or read book A Prescription for Monetary Policy written by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and published by The Minerva Group, Inc.. This book was released on 2001 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A Prescription for Monetary Policy," originally published in 1976, contains the proceedings from a series of seminars. The seminars addressed the question, "How should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) make monetary policy?" The need to carefully reexamine this question gained in urgency as the economic distress story of the mid-1970s unfolded. In recognition of the unsatisfactory state of the economy, a major Federal Reserve System research program was launched under the auspices of the FOMC?s Committee on the Directive. The study?s objective was to produce for the FOMC?s consideration a set of recommendations on how to improve the execution of monetary stabilization policy.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Rationality written by Alfred R. Mele and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2004-01-08 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rationality has long been a central topic in philosophy, crossing standard divisions and categories. It continues to attract much attention in published research and teaching by philosophers as well as scholars in other disciplines, including economics, psychology, and law. The Oxford Handbook of Rationality is an indispensable reference to the current state of play in this vital and interdisciplinary area of study. Twenty-two newly commissioned chapters by a roster of distinguished philosophers provide an overview of the prominent views on rationality, with each author also developing a unique and distinctive argument.
Download or read book Modeling Bounded Rationality written by Ariel Rubinstein and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The notion of bounded rationality was initiated in the 1950s by Herbert Simon; only recently has it influenced mainstream economics. In this book, Ariel Rubinstein defines models of bounded rationality as those in which elements of the process of choice are explicitly embedded. The book focuses on the challenges of modeling bounded rationality, rather than on substantial economic implications. In the first part of the book, the author considers the modeling of choice. After discussing some psychological findings, he proceeds to the modeling of procedural rationality, knowledge, memory, the choice of what to know, and group decisions.In the second part, he discusses the fundamental difficulties of modeling bounded rationality in games. He begins with the modeling of a game with procedural rational players and then surveys repeated games with complexity considerations. He ends with a discussion of computability constraints in games. The final chapter includes a critique by Herbert Simon of the author's methodology and the author's response. The Zeuthen Lecture Book series is sponsored by the Institute of Economics at the University of Copenhagen.
Download or read book The Cunning of Reason written by Martin Hollis and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a philosophers' attempt to bring together ideas put forward by economists, sociologists and political theorists. The author begins by exploring the economist's assumption that action is rational if it helps to achieve the agent's goals as efficiently as possible. The assumption is explored with the aid of rational-choice theory and game-theory, but it is rejected in the end for failing to account for the elements of trust and morality which rational social life requires. A discussion of 'Rational Expectations' and of 'maximising' and 'satisficing' leads to a portrait of social actors as rational role-players. Rationality is, finally, the expression of the self in a social world. The book intervenes in intense current debates within and among several disciplines. Its concern is with the true nature of social actors and the proper character of social science. Its arguments are the more challenging for being presented in a simple, incisive and lucid prose. It will be of particular interest to philosophers, social theorists and social scientists interested in the philosophical aspects of their discipline.
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
