Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions from surveys conducted since 1968 by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the American Statistical Association. The tests of the joint null hypothesis that the regressions of actual on predicted values have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to the expectations of inflation, but they show the forecasts of several other variables in a generally much better light. There have been strong tendencies for the forecasters in this period to underestimate inflation and overestimate real growth.Considerable attention is given to the effects of the sample size--the issue of the power of the tests--and also to the extent and role of autocorrelations among the residual errors from these regressions.Rationality in the sense of efficient use of relevant information implies the absence of systematic elements in series of errors from the forecaster's own predictions, measured strictly in the form in which such errors could have been known at the time of the forecast. The frequencies of significant auto-correlations among errors so measured vary greatly across the forecasts for different variables, being very high for inflation, high for inventory investment and the unemployment rate, and much lower for most of the predictions ofthe other variables covered (rates of change in nominal and real GNP and expenditures on consumer durables). The corresponding tests for the group meanforecasts show much less evidence of serially correlated ex ante errors, except for inflation.

Download or read book Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models written by P. Fisher and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

Download or read book Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process written by Mr.Olivier Coibion and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-20 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.

Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-23 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.

Download or read book Rational Expectations Macroeconomics written by Patrick Minford and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1992 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Expectations Macroeconomics is the second edition of Rational Expectations and the New Macroeconomics by Patrick Minford and David Peel. Under the sole authorship of Profesor Minford, this new dition represents a practical introduction to the principles and applications of rational expectations (RE) methods in macroeconomics for third year undergraduates and postgraduates. The author sets out to provide a basic working knowledge of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) by demonstrating in full various methods for solving RE models. The book then deals with policies and issues frequently encountered when applying these models including: stabilization policy, fiscal policy, the political economy of democracy and the Phillips curve. Finally, the author turns to methods of testing the REH. By the end of the book, students should be in a position to apply RE models to whatever economy they are concerned with. Professor Minford has updated the text extensively and included new chapters on representatitve agent models (increasingly used in a applied forecasting and policy analysis) and modelling the open economy. In the decade since the first edition of this classic text was written, the economics profession′s respect for the REH has only increased. The author′s introductory and concluding chapters place the REH research programme in its historical context, assess the current state of the debate and look ahead to future research in this important subject.

Download or read book Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts written by David Scott Laster and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper develops a model of macroeconomic forecasting in which the wages firms pay their forecasters are a function of their accuracy as well as the publicity they generate for their employers by being correct. In the resulting Nash equilibrium, forecasters with identical models, information, and incentives nevertheless produce a variety of predictions in order to maximize their expected wages. In the case of heterogeneous incentives, the forecasters whose wages are most closely tied to publicity, as opposed to accuracy, produce the forecasts that deviate most from the consensus. We find empirical support for our model using a twenty-year panel of real GNP/GDP forecast data from the survey Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Although the consensus outperforms virtually every forecaster, many forecasters choose to deviate from it substantially and regularly. Moreover, the extent of this deviation varies by industry in a manner consistent with our model."--Abstract.

Download or read book A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.

Download or read book Economic Forecasting The State of the Art written by Elia Xacapyr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.

Download or read book Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models written by L. Broze and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.

Download or read book Rational Expectations and Economic Policy written by Stanley Fischer and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Several areas in economics today have unprecedented significance and vitality. Most people would agree that stabilization policy ranks with the highest of these. Continuing inflation and periodic serious acceleration of inflation combined with high and secularly rising unemployment combine to give the area high priority. This book brings us up to date on an extremely lively discussion involving the role of expectations, and more particularly rational expectations, in the conduct of stabilization policy. . . . Anyone interested in the role of government in economics should read this important book."—C. Glyn Williams, The Wall Street Review of Books "This is a most timely and valuable contribution. . . . The contributors and commentators are highly distinguished and the editor has usefully collated comments and the ensuing discussion. Unusually for a conference proceedings the book is well indexed and it is also replete with numerous and up-to-date references. . . . This is the first serious book to examine the rational expectations thesis in any depth, and it will prove invaluable to anyone involved with macroeconomic policy generally and with monetary economics in particular."—G. K. Shaw, The Economic Journal

Download or read book Rational Expectations in Macroeconomics written by C. L. F. Attfield and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Economics Economists and Expectations written by William Darity and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-03-04 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas. The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf.