Download or read book Quantitative analysis of large stock market crashes written by Victor Odour and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2014-02-05 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Document from the year 2011 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, California State University, East Bay, language: English, abstract: The objective of this study is to structure a dependable model to forecast the timing of entry and exit from the stock markets by using multivariate linear regression analysis. The study uses major macroeconomic indicators such CPI, PPI, GDP, MEI as independent variables and the S&P 500 index value as the dependent variable. The sample consists of 30 years of monthly data. This study includes four different loss scenarios in the S&P 500 index value and analyzes the data to see if the losses can be absorbed or if further losses will occur. This report discusses the practical implications of using regression analysis and how it is used to predict the market movements. This paper concludes that our regression model can help an investor to anticipate market movements and thus make appropriate buy and sell decisions.

Download or read book Why Stock Markets Crash written by Didier Sornette and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-21 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

Download or read book EQUITY MANAGEMENT QUANTITIVE ANALYSIS written by Bruce I. Jacobs and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2000 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two pioneers and innovators in the money management field present their choice of groundbreaking, peer-reviewed articles on subjects including portfolio engineering and long-short investment strategy. More than just a collection of classic review pieces, however, Equity Management provides new material to introduce, interpret, and integrate the pieces, with an introduction that provides an authoritative overview of the chapters. Important and innovative, it is destined to become the "Graham and Dodd" of quantitative equity investing. About the Authors: Bruce I. Jacobs and Kenneth N. Levy are Principals of Jacobs Levy Equity Management. Based in Florham Park, New Jersey, Jacobs Levy Equity Management is widely recognized as a leading provider of quantitative equity strategies for institutional clients. Jacobs Levy currently manages over $15 billion in various strategies for a prestigious global roster of 50 corporate pension plans, public retirement systems, multi-employer funds, endowments, and foundations, including over 25 of Pensions & Investments' "Top 200 Pension Funds/Sponsors." Bruce I. Jacobs holds a PhD in finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of Capital Ideas and Market Realities: Option Replication, Investor Behavior, and Stock Market Crashes and co-editor, with Ken Levy, of Market Neutral Strategies. He serves on the advisory board of the Journal of Portfolio Management. Kenneth N. Levy holds an MBA and an MA in applied economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is co-editor, with Bruce Jacobs, of Market Neutral Strategies. A Chartered Financial Analyst, he has served on the CFA Institute's candidate curriculum committee and on the advisory board of POSIT.

Download or read book Capital Ideas and Market Realities written by Bruce I. Jacobs and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1999-08-03 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bruce Jacobs sifts through the history of modern finance, from the efficient market hypothesis to behavioral psychology and chaos theory, to determine the cause of recent market crashes. Includes a Foreword from Nobel Laureate Harry M. Markowitz. Showcases the expertise of an author who identified and predicted the causes of 1987, 1997 and 1998 crashes. Explains the risks of little-understood option replication. Offers chapter summaries, appendices and a glossary.

Download or read book The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity written by Craig Holden and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2014-11-28 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a synthesis of the empirical evidence on market liquidity. The liquidity measurement literature has established standard measures of liquidity that apply to broad categories of market microstructure data. Specialized measures of liquidity have been developed to deal with data limitations in specific markets, to provide proxies from daily data, and to assess institutional trading programs. The general liquidity literature has established local cross-sectional patterns, global cross-sectional patterns, and time-series patterns.

Download or read book Quantitative Analysis In Financial Markets Collected Papers Of The New York University Mathematical Finance Seminar written by Marco Avellaneda and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1999-10-27 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This invaluable book contains lectures delivered at the celebrated Seminar in Mathematical Finance at the Courant Institute. The lecturers and presenters of papers are prominent researchers and practitioners in the field of quantitative financial modeling. Most are faculty members at leading universities or Wall Street practitioners.The lectures deal with the emerging science of pricing and hedging derivative securities and, more generally, managing financial risk. Specific articles concern topics such as option theory, dynamic hedging, interest-rate modeling, portfolio theory, price forecasting using statistical methods, etc.

Download or read book The Dot com Bubble the Bush Deficits and the U S Current Account written by Aart Kraay and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position."

Download or read book Quantitative Analysis of Newly Evolving Patterns of International Trade written by Robert Mitchell Stern and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative Analysis of Newly Evolving Patterns of International Trade offers a variety of perspectives on new forms and developments of international trade and related activities for Japan, the United States, China, and some other important trading countries, to develop new methods and data for measuring the factor contents of emerging new modes of international trade. Such methods and data are crucially important for evaluating impacts of the new modes on factor markets in the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries, and also for forecasting the future development of world trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), evaluating welfare gains from trade, estimating impacts of free trade agreements, and designing effective trade and FDI policies.

Download or read book Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis written by Mr.Taimur Baig and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-11-01 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper tests for evidence of contagion between the financial markets of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Cross-country correlations among currencies and sovereign spreads are found to increase significantly during the crisis period, whereas the equity market correlations offer mixed evidence. A set of dummy variables using daily news is constructed to capture the impact of own-country and cross-border news on the markets. After controlling for own-country news and other fundamentals, the paper shows evidence of cross-border contagion in the currency and equity markets.

Download or read book Saving the City written by Richard Roberts and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-11 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A week before the outbreak of the First World War, an acute financial crisis surged over London: the Stock Exchange closed; money markets worldwide were paralysed. Drawing on diaries, letters, memoirs, press reports, and official archives, this book tells the extraordinary, and largely unknown, story of the first true global financial crisis.

Download or read book Asset Pricing Theory written by Costis Skiadas and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-02-09 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asset Pricing Theory is an advanced textbook for doctoral students and researchers that offers a modern introduction to the theoretical and methodological foundations of competitive asset pricing. Costis Skiadas develops in depth the fundamentals of arbitrage pricing, mean-variance analysis, equilibrium pricing, and optimal consumption/portfolio choice in discrete settings, but with emphasis on geometric and martingale methods that facilitate an effortless transition to the more advanced continuous-time theory. Among the book's many innovations are its use of recursive utility as the benchmark representation of dynamic preferences, and an associated theory of equilibrium pricing and optimal portfolio choice that goes beyond the existing literature. Asset Pricing Theory is complete with extensive exercises at the end of every chapter and comprehensive mathematical appendixes, making this book a self-contained resource for graduate students and academic researchers, as well as mathematically sophisticated practitioners seeking a deeper understanding of concepts and methods on which practical models are built. Covers in depth the modern theoretical foundations of competitive asset pricing and consumption/portfolio choice Uses recursive utility as the benchmark preference representation in dynamic settings Sets the foundations for advanced modeling using geometric arguments and martingale methodology Features self-contained mathematical appendixes Includes extensive end-of-chapter exercises

Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-14 with total page 471 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the thousands of articles and the millions of times that the word 'bubble' has been used in the business press, there still does not appear to be a cohesive theory or persuasive empirical approach with which to study 'bubble' and 'crash' conditions. This book presents a plausible and accessible descriptive theory and empirical approach to the analysis of such financial market conditions. It advances such a framework through application of standard econometric methods to its central idea, which is that financial bubbles reflect urgent short side rationed demand. From this basic idea, an elasticity of variance concept is developed. It is further shown that a behavioral risk premium can probably be measured and related to the standard equity risk premium models in a way that is consistent with conventional theory.

Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Download or read book Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by Mdpi AG. This book was released on 2022-02-17 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Efficient Market Hypothesis believes that it is impossible for an investor to outperform the market because all available information is already built into stock prices. However, some anomalies could persist in stock markets while some other anomalies could appear, disappear and re-appear again without any warning. A Special Issue on "Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets" will be devoted to advancements in the theoretical development of market efficiency and anomaly in the Stock Market, as well as applications in Stock Market efficiency and anomalies.

Download or read book The Great Crash 1929 written by John Kenneth Galbraith and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2009 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classic examination of the 1929 financial collapse, with an introduction by economist James K. Galbraith Of John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash 1929, the Atlantic Monthly said: "Economic writings are seldom notable for their entertainment value, but this book is. Galbraith's prose has grace and wit, and he distills a good deal of sardonic fun from the whopping errors of the nation's oracles and the wondrous antics of the financial community." Originally published in 1955, Galbraith's book became an instant bestseller, and in the years since its release it has become the unparalleled point of reference for readers looking to understand American financial history."

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market written by Nicholas Mangee and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-14 with total page 451 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.