Download or read book Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers The Role of Economic Confidence written by William Gbohoui and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates how macroeconomic uncertainty affects the fiscal multiplier of public investment. In theory, uncertainty can reduce the multiplier if the private sector becomes more cautious and does not respond to the fiscal stimulus. Conversely, it can increase the fiscal multiplier if public investment shocks improve private agents’ expectations about future economic outlook, and lead to larger private spending. Using the disagreement about GDP forecasts as a proxy for uncertainty, we find that unexpected increases in public investment have larger and longer-lasting effects on output, investment, and employment during periods of high uncertainty, with multipliers above 2, and the larger multipliers are not driven by economic slack. Public investment shocks are also found to boost private sector confidence during heightened uncertainty, driving-up expectations about future economic development which in turn magnify private sector response to the initial stimulus.

Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Download or read book Measuring Global and Country Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics

Download or read book Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks written by Eliphas Ndou and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-08 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.

Download or read book Essays on Risk and Uncertainty in Economics and Finance written by Jorge Mario Uribe Gil and published by Ed. Universidad de Cantabria. This book was released on 2022-11-22 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, “Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”, a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis is proposed. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others, is analized. In chapter 4: “Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?” we explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks is provided. We examine the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, “Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability”, downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity is analyzed. Two primary contributions to the literature follow. First, tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market are estimated. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, we show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled “Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis”. This chapter contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. It focuses on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. We document smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles.

Download or read book Navigating the Factor Zoo written by Michael Zhang and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-12-04 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bridging the gap between theoretical asset pricing and industry practices in factors and factor investing, Zhang et al. provides a comprehensive treatment of factors, along with industry insights on practical factor development. Chapters cover a wide array of topics, including the foundations of quantamentals, the intricacies of market beta, the significance of statistical moments, the principles of technical analysis, and the impact of market microstructure and liquidity on trading. Furthermore, it delves into the complexities of tail risk and behavioral finance, revealing how psychological factors affect market dynamics. The discussion extends to the sophisticated use of option trading data for predictive insights and the critical differentiation between outcome uncertainty and distribution uncertainty in financial decision-making. A standout feature of the book is its examination of machine learning's role in factor investing, detailing how it transforms data preprocessing, factor discovery, and model construction. Overall, this book provides a holistic view of contemporary financial markets, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in harnessing alternative data and machine learning to develop robust investment strategies. This book would appeal to investment management professionals and trainees. It will also be of use to graduate and upper undergraduate students in quantitative finance, factor investing, asset management and/or trading.

Download or read book Jordan written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-09-20 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economy of Jordan was affected by the global crisis. Lower commodity prices helped improve Jordan’s external position. Effective banking supervision has strengthened the capacity of Jordanian banks to withstand shocks. The authorities have implemented prudent fiscal and monetary policies. The medium-term fiscal strategy should be supported by a number of institutional reforms. The fixed exchange rate regime remains important for financial stability. Bank regulation and supervision should continue to focus on preventing excessive risk-taking.

Download or read book Milton Friedman Economic Debate in the United States 1932 1972 Volume 1 written by Edward Nelson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2020-11-06 with total page 758 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First in a two-volume study of Friedman’s long career: “No previous biographer has Nelson’s deep and sophisticated understanding of monetary economics.” —Economic History This study is the first to distill Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman’s vast body of writings into an authoritative account of his research, his policy views, and his interventions in public debate. With this ambitious new work, Edward Nelson closes the gap: Milton Friedman and Economic Debate in the United States is the defining narrative on the famed economist, the first to grapple comprehensively with Friedman’s research output, economic framework, and legacy. This two-volume account provides a foundational introduction to Friedman’s role in several major economic debates that took place in the United States between 1932 and 1972. This first volume in the two-volume account takes the story through 1960, covering the period in which Friedman began and developed his research on monetary policy. It traces Friedman’s thinking from his professional beginnings in the 1930s as a combative young microeconomist, to his wartime years on the staff of the US Treasury, and his emergence in the postwar period as a leading proponent of monetary policy. As a fellow monetary economist, Nelson writes from a unique vantage point, drawing on both his own expertise in monetary analysis and his deep familiarity with Friedman’s writings. Using extensive documentation, the book weaves together Friedman’s research contributions and his engagement in public debate, providing an unparalleled analysis of Friedman’s views on the economic developments of his day. “Magisterial . . . For anyone wanting to understand the ideas that Friedman generated over his research career, this book is, and will remain for some time, the essential guide.” —Financial World

Download or read book Credible Asset Allocation Optimal Transport Methods and Related Topics written by Songsak Sriboonchitta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-29 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes state-of-the-art economic ideas and how these ideas can be (and are) used to make economic decision (in particular, to optimally allocate assets) and to gauge the results of different economic decisions (in particular, by using optimal transport methods). Special emphasis is paid to machine learning techniques (including deep learning) and to different aspects of quantum econometrics—when quantum physics and quantum computing models are techniques are applied to study economic phenomena. Applications range from more traditional economic areas to more non-traditional topics such as economic aspects of tourism, cryptocurrencies, telecommunication infrastructure, and pandemic. This book helps student to learn new techniques, practitioners to become better knowledgeable of the state-of-the-art econometric techniques, and researchers to further develop these important research directions

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.

Download or read book Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference on Bigdata Blockchain and Economy Management ICBBEM 2022 written by Daowen Qiu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-12-28 with total page 1730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. As a leading role in the global megatrend of scientific innovation, China has been creating a more and more open environment for scientific innovation, increasing the depth and breadth of academic cooperation, and building a community of innovation that benefits all. These endeavors have made new contribution to globalization and creating a community of shared future. With the rapid development of modern economic society, in the process of economic management, informatization has become the mainstream of economic development in the future. At the same time, with the emergence of advanced management technologies such as blockchain technology and big data technology, real market information can be quickly obtained in the process of economic management, which greatly reduces the operating costs of the market economy and effectively enhances the management level of operators, thus contributing to the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the market economy. Under the new situation, the innovative application of economic management research is of great practical significance. 2022 International Conference on Bigdata, Blockchain and Economic Management (ICBBEM 2022) will be held on March 25–27, 2022 in Wuhan, China. ICBBEM 2022 will focus on the latest fields of Bigdata, Blockchain and Economic Management to provide an international platform for experts, professors, scholars and engineers from universities, scientific institutes, enterprises and government-affiliated institutions at home and abroad to share experiences, to expand professional fields, to exchange new ideas face to face, to present research results, and to discuss the key challenging issues and research directions facing the development of this field, with a view to promoting the development and application of theories and technologies in universities and enterprises.

Download or read book Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises written by Allen N. Berger and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank's performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. - Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank's output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity - Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises - Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions - Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Download or read book Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics written by Songsak Sriboonchitta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-05 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.

Download or read book Disentangling India s Investment Slowdown written by Rahul Anand and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-03-24 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as business confidence and economic policy uncertainty. Our results suggest that while explaining aggregate investment activity better than nominal interest rates, real interest rates account for only one quarter of the explained investment downturn. In addition, standard macro-financial variables do not fully explain the recent investment slump. Using a new measure of economic policy uncertainty, the results suggest that heightened uncertainty and deteriorating business confidence have played a key role in the recent investment slowdown.

Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2012 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-04 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The IMF's 2012 Annual Report chronicles the response of the Fund's Executive Board and staff to the global financial crisis and other events during financial year 2012, which covers the period from May 1, 2011, through April 30, 2012. The print version of the Report is available in eight languages (Arabic, Chinese, English, French, German, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish), along with a CD-ROM (available in English only) that includes the Report text and ancillary materials, including the Fund's Financial Statements for FY2012.