Download or read book Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO s Forecasting Growth Model written by Robert Shackleton and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and published by Physica. This book was released on 2009-08-29 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Download or read book Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-03-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Download or read book Revisions to CBO s Projection of Potential Output Since 2007 written by Robert Shackleton and published by . This book was released on 2014-05-22 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its economic and budgetary projections, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates past and future potential output -- also called potential gross domestic product (GDP), and defined as the maximum sustainable amount of real (inflation-adjusted) output that the economy can produce. For various reasons, CBO's projections for potential gross domestic product (GDP) in a specific year can change over time. This report examines a change in CBO's projections of potential output for the year 2017, comparing the projection it published in January 2001 with the one it released in February 2014. From the earlier projection to the more recent one, CBO's projection for potential output in 2017 declined by 7.3 percent. Table and figures. This is a print on demand report.
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 1046 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology written by Alain de Serres and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and that the international price of oil is exogenous to the Mexican economy in the long term. They then calculate potential output by adding the world oil and supply components to the drift in output. They find that world oil shocks have been an important source of both actual and potential output fluctuations over a sample period extending from 1965 to 1994. However, they also find occurrences of important gaps between actual and potential output.
Download or read book An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook Fiscal Years 2017 To 2027 written by Congressional Budget Office (U.S.) and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2017-06-29 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn About America's Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, and Economic projections! CBO's economic forecast--which underlies its budget projections--indicates that, under current law, the economy will expand through 2018 at a pace that leads to further tightening of the labor market. Greater demand for workers will put downward pressure on the unemployment rate and upward pressure on the rate of labor force participation. As the amount of unused productive resources in the economy shrinks, inflation and interest rates are projected to rise. In the later part of the 10-year projection period, annual output growth is projected to average 1.9 percent, constrained by a relatively slow increase in the size of the nation's labor force. High school students and above may find this report beneficial for U.S. economy, economic conditions, and America's debt research papers. American citizens, small business, corporations, lobbyists, fiscal managers, economists, and media news outlets may find this information invaluable for understanding America's future growth and management of debt. Members of Congress, government agency personnel at Federal and State level, plus investors may be interested in this updated edition. Related products: Congressional Budget Reports & Economic Analyses resources collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy/congressional-budget-reports-economic-analyses Budget of the U.S. Government, A New Foundation for American Greatness, Fiscal Year 2018 is available here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/budget-united-states-government-fy-2018-paperback-book Major Savings and Reforms: Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2018 can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/major-savings-and-reforms-budget-us-government-fiscal-year-2018 Sign up today for an annual print subscription to Economic Indicators that provide economic information on gross domestic product, income, employment, prices, wages, production, business activity, security markets, Federal Finance, and more at this link: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/752-004-00000-5?ctid=
Download or read book Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology written by Alain DeSerres and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Budget and Economic Outlook an Update written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Inflation and Activity Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Download or read book Budget and Economic Outlook 2017 to 2027 written by Congress, Congressional Budget Office and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2017-06-14 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) routinely presents the latest possible forecast of economic activity projected a decade in advance. These forecasts are continually updated to reflect social, political, and economic changes that could impact financial reporting results. For the present period, the CBO outlook is summarized as follows: * The Budget Deficit for 2017 Is Projected to Be Similar to Last Year's. * Growing Deficits Through 2027 Are Projected to Drive Up Federal Debt. * The Projected Deficit for 2017 Is Smaller than CBO's August 2016 Estimate, but the Cumulative Deficit Is Largely Unchanged. * CBO Expects Moderate Economic Growth to Continue. * Economic Activity Is Projected to Be Modestly Lower Than CBO Estimated in August.
Download or read book A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
Download or read book How can Korea Boost Potential Output to Ensure Continued Income Convergence written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-03 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Korea’s rapid growth has slowed in recent years, suggesting lower potential growth. This paper uses an array of techniques, including statistical filters, a multivariate model and the production function, to estimate Korea’s potential growth. The main finding is that trend growth has fallen from around 43⁄4 percent during 2000-07 to around 31⁄4 -31⁄2 percent by 2011-12. Absent reforms, it is projected to fall further to around 2 percent by 2025, primarily due to declining working-age population. However, Korea’s potential growth can be maintained at a higher level by putting in place a comprehensive structural reform agenda, including increased female and youth labor force participation, liberalization of product and labor market regulation. Staff simulations suggest that such reforms could lift potential growth by around 11⁄4 percentage point over the next decade, maintaining potential growth at around 31⁄4 percent, counteracting the effect of population aging, and enabling Korea to continue to converge to income levels of the United States.
Download or read book World Development Report 1983 written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1983 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the sixth in an annual series assessing development issues. It reviews recent trends in the international economy and their implications for the developing countries with a special focus on the management and institutional aspects of development. The early recovery in the world economy foreseen in last year's World Development Report did not materialize. The recession has lasted longer than expected and has set back global development more decisively than at any time since the Great Depression. The indications of an upturn are now firmer, but the international financial system remains severely strained and protectionism continues to be an ominous threat. This report reviews how alternative policies may affect the future prospects for recovery. It concludes that the present financial crisis is manageable, provided concerted efforts are made both nationally and internationally. It is essential for the industrial countries to maintain the momentum of their recovery, to promote freer trade, and to ensure growth in capital flows. Equally important, developing countries must for their part continue their efforts to adjust their economies to the new external circumstances and thereby regain the confidence of their creditors.
Download or read book Budget and Economic Outlook written by Congressional Budget Office and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2015-02-15 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reports on the state of the United States economy and the Federal budget.
