Download or read book Project Economics and Decision Analysis written by Mohammed A. Mian and published by Pennwell Corporation. This book was released on 2011 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volume 2: Probabilistic Models, author M. A. Mian presents the concepts of decision analysis, incorporating risk and uncertainty as applied to capital investments. In the expanded and updated second edition of Volume 2, Mian integrates new advancements and clarifies concepts to facilitate their understanding. Each topic is introduced, followed by a brief discussion related to its application in practice and a solved example. Includes a companion CD with applications, spreadsheets, and tables that expand the practical application of the book's material.

Download or read book Project Economics and Decision Analysis Probabilistic models written by Mohammed A. Mian and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Project Economics and Decision Analysis written by Mohammed A. Mian and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Project Economics and Decision Analysis written by Mohammed A. Mian and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Probabilistic Models written by M. A. Mian and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Economic Decision Analysis written by Babak Jafarizadeh and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-03-09 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book ​discusses the art and science of economic decision making. It combines logical thinking with analytics, economics, and finance to draw decision insights for the upstream petroleum projects. The book offers useful analysis skills for practitioners in industry, including analysts, engineers, and managers. In addition, advanced undergraduate and graduate students in petroleum engineering, applied petroleum geoscience, industrial engineering, and energy business would benefit from the discussions in this book.

Download or read book Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects written by John R. Schuyler and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-08-21 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision analysis (DA) guides executives toward logical, consistent decisions under uncertainty. This book instructs readers in applying DA to feasibility analysis, project estimation, and project risk management.This is a wholly rewritten and expanded successor to the best-selling first and second editions.The entire investment lifecycle is covered, from conception, to the project plan, to the post-project review, and to a look-back analysis of the capital investment decision.DA applies to all manner of project management (PM) decisions for individuals, government, and non-profit organizations. The book uses a business investment perspective and assumes that maximizing value for the project owner is the objective.DA is a problem-solving process. There are four key features: 1) probabilities and probability distributions express best judgments about risks and uncertainties. 2) The organization has a decision policy expressed as a single metric (the objective function). 3) Probabilities and outcome values combine in the probability-weighting expected value calculation. 4) The organization as a policy to choose the best expected value alternative.This book aims to make decision making clear, simple, and logical. A clear decision policy can be elusive, and the author offers suggestions for making trade-offs among conflicting objectives. Converting the three pillars of project management (cost, schedule, and performance) into project value equivalents makes the trade-offs clear.This book is intended for serious PM students and practitioners. This is an essential concepts and how-to book. The scope is quantitative analysis, from project inception to post-project review. Project cost and schedule modeling, in modest detail, is essential to feasibility analysis and risk management. A general background in PM and corporate planning will be helpful. The methods are quantitative and straightforward. The reader should be comfortable with basic algebra and Microsoft(r) Excel(r).The book has eight pages of Suggested Reading annotated references (plus footnote additions), over 250 figures, approximately 600 Glossary definitions, and over 2400 Index entries. Online supplements include several whitepapers and other documents, example calculation spreadsheets, detailed color images of several important figures, four videos (including a critical chain simulation), and the Utility Elicitation Program (a web app, free for most users).Key topics include: Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation for calculating outcome distributions and expected values * Probability concepts, including Bayes' rule for value of information analysis * Popular probability distribution types and when they apply * Eliciting expert judgments, with attention to potential cognitive and motivational biases * Recognizing the three pillars project in terms of project value * A 10-step decision analysis process * Project modeling concepts and techniques, with special attention to risk drivers and other correlations * Deterministic and stochastic sensitivity analysis * Decision policy that distinguishes objectives, time value, and risk attitude * @RISK(r) with Microsoft(r) Project for project simulations under uncertainty * Logical, consistent risk policy expressed as a utility function * Merge bias when task chains converge at a merge point * Tail estimate bias when estimating highly uncertain quantities * Optimizer's curse, a portfolio forecasting bias * Winner's curse, a bias characteristic of auctions * Using the best of critical chain and Monte Carlo simulation * Stochastic variance between a deterministic and a stochastic model * Modeling risk and uncertainty using probabilities, probability distributions, explicit formula relationships, correlation coefficients, risk drivers, conditional branching, and rework cycles.

Download or read book Portfolio Decision Analysis written by Ahti Salo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-08-12 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.

Download or read book Handbook of Probabilistic Models written by Pijush Samui and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2019-10-05 with total page 590 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Probabilistic Models carefully examines the application of advanced probabilistic models in conventional engineering fields. In this comprehensive handbook, practitioners, researchers and scientists will find detailed explanations of technical concepts, applications of the proposed methods, and the respective scientific approaches needed to solve the problem. This book provides an interdisciplinary approach that creates advanced probabilistic models for engineering fields, ranging from conventional fields of mechanical engineering and civil engineering, to electronics, electrical, earth sciences, climate, agriculture, water resource, mathematical sciences and computer sciences. Specific topics covered include minimax probability machine regression, stochastic finite element method, relevance vector machine, logistic regression, Monte Carlo simulations, random matrix, Gaussian process regression, Kalman filter, stochastic optimization, maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference, Bayesian update, kriging, copula-statistical models, and more. Explains the application of advanced probabilistic models encompassing multidisciplinary research Applies probabilistic modeling to emerging areas in engineering Provides an interdisciplinary approach to probabilistic models and their applications, thus solving a wide range of practical problems

Download or read book product guide SUMMER 2008 written by and published by Lannoo Uitgeverij. This book was released on with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Multicriteria Decision Making written by Timothy Havranek and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public corporations and private businesses operate in an increasingly complex, uncertain, and interconnected world. When evaluating investment decisions, business managers can no longer base their decisions primarily on expected financial return. They now must now consider a host of performance value measures (i.e., criteria) pertaining to issues such as environmental and social governance, sustainability, and stakeholder satisfaction. In addition, corporate managers must ensure that their investment decisions are aligned with the company’s vision, mission, and values in order to maintain investor confidence and protect brand image. Lastly, to be truly successful, business managers must assess the risks associated with each performance measure and manage their impacts during project implementation. This book takes a pragmatic business and economics view towards evaluating competing investment alternatives and/or capital project strategies. It provides a practical step-by- step process using a structured decision analysis framework to evaluate, understand, quantify, and measure project invesment strategies in light of multiple stakeholder objectives and success criteria. This process assists in helping stakeholders (internal and external) achieve a shared understanding of project issues and to facilitate convergence towards a mutually acceptable solution. The approach considers available choices, identified uncertainties, constraints, necessary tradeoffs, and preferences so as to identify solutions that maximize overall benefits while minimizing overall costs and risk. A real world case study is presented in the early chapters and the process steps are demonstrated through application to this case study. Recent advances in technology allow for investment strategies to be evaluated against multiple criteria within one integrated platform. This book guides the reader in performing multi-criteria decision analysis, including the use of Monte Carlo simulation, within an MS Excel environment using native MS Excel and as well as add-in programs such Palisades Decision Tools suite. Example model structures, screen shots, formulas, and output results are provided throughout the book using an illustrative case study.

Download or read book A Study of Business Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Andreas Stark and published by Universal-Publishers. This book was released on 2010-07 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation will discuss the uncertainty encountered in the daily operations of businesses. The concepts will be developed by first giving an overview of probability and statistics as used in our everyday activities, such as the basic principles of probability, univariate and multivariate statistics, data clustering and mapping, as well as time sequence and spectral analysis. The examples used will be from the oil and gas exploration industry because the risks taken in this industry are normally quite large and are ideal for showing the application of the various techniques for minimizing risk. Subsequently, the discussion will deal with basic risk analysis, spatial and time variations of risk, geotechnical risk analysis, risk aversion and how it is affected by personal biases, and how to use portfolios to hedge risk together with the application of real options. Next, fractal analysis and its application to economics and risk analysis will be examined, followed by some examples showing the change in the Value at Risk under Fractal Brownian Motions. Finally, a neural network application is shown whereby some of these risks and risk factors will be combined to forecast the best possible outcome given a certain knowledge base. The chapters will discuss: Basic probability techniques and uncertainty principles Analysis and diversification for exploration projects The value and risk of information in the decision process Simulation techniques and modeling of uncertainty Project valuation and project risk return Modeling risk propensity or preference analysis of exploration projects Application of fractals to risk analysis Simultaneous prediction of strategic risk and decision attributes using multivariate statistics and neural networks"

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Download or read book The Economics of Project Analysis written by William Augustus Ward and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'The Economics of Project Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide' is written for project practitioners, for instructors in agricultural project economic analysis, and for students of that subject. This guide extends and complements the discussion of project and policy economics contained in the second edition of 'Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects', by J. Price Gittinger--referred to throughout this volume as Gittinger (1982). ISBN10:0-8213-1751-2 ISBN13:978-0-8213-1751-8

Download or read book Info Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-10-11 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Download or read book Petroleum Economics and Risk Analysis written by Mark Cook and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-01-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Petroleum Economics and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide to E&P Investment Decision-Making, Volume 69, is a practical guide to the economic evaluation, risk evaluation and decision analysis of oil and gas projects through all stages of the asset lifecycle, from exploration to late life opportunities. This book will help readers understand and make decisions with regard to petroleum investment, portfolio analysis, discounting, profitability indicators, decision tree analysis, reserves accounting, exploration and production (E&P) project evaluation, and E&P asset evaluation. Includes case studies and full color illustrations for practical application Arranged to reflect lifecycle structure, from exploration through to decommissioning Demonstrates industry-standard decision-making techniques as applied to petroleum investments in the oil and gas industry

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.