Download or read book Probability Distributions of Assets Inferred from Option Prices Via the Principle of Maximum Entropy written by Jonathan Borwein and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices written by Peter W. Buchen and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the application of the Principle of Maximum Entropy to the estimation of the distribution of an underlying asset from a set of option prices. The resulting distribution is least committal with respect to unknown or missing information and is hence the least prejudiced. The maximum entropy distribution is the only information about the asset that can be inferred from the price data alone. An extension to the Principle of Minimum Cross-Entropy allows the inclusion of prior knowledge of the asset distribution. We show that the maximum entropy distribution is able to accurately fit a known density, given simulated option prices at different strikes.

Download or read book Maximum Entropy Distributions Inferred from Option Portfolios on an Asset written by Cassio Neri and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We obtain the maximum entropy distribution for an asset from call and digital option prices. A rigorous mathematical proof of its existence and exponential form is given, which can also be applied to legitimise a formal derivation by Buchen and Kelly (JFQA 31:143-159, 1996). We give a simple and robust algorithm for our method and compare our results to theirs. We present numerical results which show that our approach implies very realistic volatility surfaces even when calibrating only to at-the-money options. Finally, we apply our approach to options on the S&P 500 index.

Download or read book Estimation of the Asset Price Distribution Using the Maximum Entropy Principle written by Geon Ho Choe and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Option price contains information on the distribution of the underlying asset. Under insufficient condition we employ the maximum entropy principle to estimate the probability density of the asset price. The problem is equivalent to finding the Lagrange multipliers of a linear functional defined by entropy and payoff functions. Buchen and Kelly proved that the maximum entropy distribution recovered from observed option prices is quite similar with the original asset distribution. In this article we apply a similar method to recover the probability density function of an asset from given option prices for binary options and European options.

Download or read book Implementing the Principle of Maximum Entropy in Option Pricing written by Weiyu Guo and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Black-Scholes option pricing model has been the foundation of option pricing analysis. Yet as well known as the model itself, its empirical deficiencies are also well documented. Option prices generated by the Black-Scholes formula are often found to systematically differ from observed prices. The patterns of mispricing are generally believed to result from violations of one or more assumptions underlying the Black-Scholes option pricing model, such as the natural logarithm of the underlying stock price following a normal distribution with a variance that increases exactly linearly with time. This dissertation concerns an evaluation of the Principle of Maximum Entropy as a method for recovering a probability density function from stock index option prices. Theoretically, the resulting probability density is "the least prejudiced estimate since it is maximally noncommittal with respect to missing or unknown information." Empirically, this dissertation demonstrates that entropy valuation gives much stronger performance than does the Black-Scholes model in pricing stock index options on the S & P 500 and on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Download or read book From Analysis to Visualization written by David H. Bailey and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-16 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Students and researchers from all fields of mathematics are invited to read and treasure this special Proceedings. A conference was held 25 –29 September 2017 at Noah’s On the Beach, Newcastle, Australia, to commemorate the life and work of Jonathan M. Borwein, a mathematician extraordinaire whose untimely passing in August 2016 was a sorry loss to mathematics and to so many members of its community, a loss that continues to be keenly felt. A polymath, Jonathan Borwein ranks among the most wide ranging and influential mathematicians of the last 50 years, making significant contributions to an exceptional diversity of areas and substantially expanding the use of the computer as a tool of the research mathematician. The contributions in this commemorative volume probe Dr. Borwein's ongoing legacy in areas where he did some of his most outstanding work: Applied Analysis, Optimization and Convex Functions; Mathematics Education; Financial Mathematics; plus Number Theory, Special Functions and Pi, all tinged by the double prisms of Experimental Mathematics and Visualization, methodologies he championed.

Download or read book Techniques of Variational Analysis written by Jonathan Borwein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-06-18 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Borwein is an authority in the area of mathematical optimization, and his book makes an important contribution to variational analysis Provides a good introduction to the topic

Download or read book Credit Correlation written by Alexander Lipton and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent growth of credit derivatives has been explosive. The global credit derivatives market grew in notional value from $1 trillion to $20 trillion from 2000 to 2006. However, understanding the true nature of these instruments still poses both theoretical and practical challenges. For a long time now, the framework of Gaussian copulas parameterized by correlation, and more recently base correlation, has provided an adequate, if unintuitive, description of the market. However, the increased liquidity in credit indices and index tranches, as well as the proliferation of exotic instruments such as forward starting tranches, options on tranches, leveraged super senior tranches, and the like, have made it imperative to come up with models that describe market reality better.This book, originally and concurrently published in the International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol. 10, No. 4, 2007, agrees that base correlation has outlived its usefulness; opinions of how to replace it, however, are divided. Both the top-down and bottom-up approaches for describing the dynamics of credit baskets are presented, and pro and contra arguments are put forward. Readers will decide which direction is the most promising one at the moment. However, it is hoped that, in the near future, models that transcend base correlation will be proposed and accepted by the market.

Download or read book Computer Aided Systems Theory EUROCAST 2017 written by Roberto Moreno-Díaz and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-25 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two-volume set LNCS 10671 and 10672 constitutes the thoroughly refereed proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Computer Aided Systems Theory, EUROCAST 2017, held in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain, in February 2017. The 117 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 160 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on: pioneers and landmarks in the development of information and communication technologies; systems theory, socio-economic systems and applications; theory and applications of metaheuristic algorithms; stochastic models and applications to natural, social and technical systems; model-based system design, verification and simulation; applications of signal processing technology; algebraic and combinatorial methods in signal and pattern analysis; computer vision, deep learning and applications; computer and systems based methods and electronics technologies in medicine; intelligent transportation systems and smart mobility.

Download or read book Market Conform Valuation of Options written by Tobias Herwig and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2006-01-17 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus of this volume is on the development of new approaches for the market-conform valuation of newly issued derivatives. The first chapter presents a flexible approach to construct the binomial process of the underlying asset price by using a simultaneously backward and forward induction algorithm. This framework can be used to price and hedge a wide range of plain-vanilla and exotic options. In the second chapter this new approach is compared to existing models using a sample of plain-vanilla options, American call options and European Barrier options from two competing markets. In the third chapter new methods to value American-style options via Monte Carlo simulations in accordance with given market prices are discussed. After a short introduction to Monte Carlo methods, two new approaches are proposed. These new frameworks are illustrated via pricing examples for standard American put options.

Download or read book Quantitative Analysis In Financial Markets Collected Papers Of The New York University Mathematical Finance Seminar Vol Ii written by Marco Avellaneda and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2001-01-10 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains lectures delivered at the celebrated Seminar in Mathematical Finance at the Courant Institute. The lecturers and presenters of papers are prominent researchers and practitioners in the field of quantitative financial modeling. Most are faculty members at leading universities or Wall Street practitioners.The lectures deal with the emerging science of pricing and hedging derivative securities and, more generally, managing financial risk. Specific articles concern topics such as option theory, dynamic hedging, interest-rate modeling, portfolio theory, price forecasting using statistical methods, etc.

Download or read book Option Implied Risk Neutral Distributions and Risk Aversion written by Jens Carsten Jackwerth and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Mathematical Reviews written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 1524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A New Method of Employing the Principle of Maximum Entropy to Retrieve the Risk Neutral Density written by Leonidas Rompolis and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper suggests a new method of implementing the principle of maximum entropy to retrieve the risk neutral density of future stock, or any other asset, returns from European call and put prices. Instead of options prices used by previous studies the method maximizes the entropy measure subject to values of the risk neutral moments. These moments can be retrieved from market option prices in a first step, at each point of time. Compared to other existing methods of retrieving the risk neutral density based on the principle of maximum entropy, the benefits of the method that the paper suggests is the use of all the available information provided by the market more sufficiently. To evaluate the performance of the suggested method, the paper compares the new method proposed to other risk neutral density estimation techniques based on a number of simulation and empirical exercises.

Download or read book Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices written by Mark Rubinstein and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper derives underlying asset risk-neutral probability distributions of European options on the Samp;P 500 index. Nonparametric methods are used to choose probabilities which minimize an objective function subject to requiring that the probabilities are consistent with observed option and underlying asset prices. Alternative optimization specifications produce approximately the same implied distributions. A new and fast optimization technique for estimating probability distributions based on maximizing the smoothness of the resulting distribution is proposed. Since the crash, the risk-neutral probability of a three (four) standard deviation decline in the index (about-36% (-46%) over a year) is about 10 (100) times more likely than under the assumption of lognormality.

Download or read book Option Pricing with Maximum Entropy Densities written by Omid M. Ardakani and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Entropy pricing applies notions of information theory to derive the theoretical value of options. This paper employs the maximum entropy formulation of option pricing, given risk-neutral moment constraints computed directly from the observed prices. First, higher-order moments are used to generate option prices. Then a generalization of Shannon entropy, known as Renyi entropy, is studied to account for extreme events. This maximum entropy problem provides a class of heavy-tailed distributions. Examples and Monte Carlo simulations are provided to examine the effects of moment constraints on option prices. The call option values are then constructed using daily S&P 500 index options. The findings suggest that entropy pricing with higher-order moment constraints provides higher forecasting accuracy.

Download or read book Estimating Probability Distributions of Future Asset Prices written by Rupert De Vincent-Humphreys and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The prices of derivatives contracts can be used to estimate 'risk-neutral' probability density functions that give an indication of the weight investors place on different future prices of their underlying assets, were they risk-neutral. In the likely case that investors are risk-averse, this leads to differences between the risk-neutral probability density and the actual distribution of prices. But if this difference displays a systematic pattern over time, it may be exploited to transform the risk-neutral density into a 'real-world' density that better reflect agents' actual expectations. This work offers a methodology for performing this transformation. The resulting real-world densities may better represent market participants' views of future prices, and so offer an enhanced means of quantifying the uncertainty around financial variables. Comparison with their risk-neutral equivalents may also reveal new and useful information as to how attitudes towards risk are affecting pricing."--Abstract.