Download or read book Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries A Fan Chart Approach written by Xavier Debrun and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2006-03-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations.
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Xavier Debrun and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Primary Surplus Behaviour and Risks to Fiscal Sustainablility in Emerging Market Countries written by Oya Celasun and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper emphasizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations
Download or read book Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims to put some constraints on the way primary surpluses are projected when making assessments of public debt sustainability. Projections should be tied either to the country's historical track record in generating surpluses-if the institutional and other factors accounting for this track record are expected to persist-or to some model that links primary surpluses to their fundamental determinants, either on the basis of constant institutions and policies or a credible reform program. History-based or model-based primary surplus projections provide a useful benchmark for judging the realism of fiscal forecasts underlying debt sustainability calculations. Together with information on future growth and interest rates, the primary surplus projections can be used to generate measures of overborrowing, and the magnitude of adjustment needed to return debt to a sustainable level.
Download or read book Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sutainability in Emerging Market Countries written by O. Celasun and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Market Reforms and Public Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies written by Mr. Zamid Aligishiev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-09-12 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many emerging market and developing economies face a difficult trade-off between economic support and fiscal sustainability. Market-oriented structural reforms ease this trade-off by promoting economic growth and strengthening public finances. The empirical analysis in this note, based on 62 EMDEs over 1973-2014, shows that reforms are associated with sizeable and long-lasting reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio mainly through higher fiscal revenues and lower borrowing costs. These effects are larger in countries with greater tax efficiency, lower informality, and higher initial debt. Moreover, a model-based analysis elaborates on how such fiscal gains can be enhanced when revenue windfalls associated with reforms are saved or channeled through higher public investment.
Download or read book IMF Supported Programs written by Mr.Ashoka Mody and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04-03 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research work by the IMF’s staff on the effectiveness of the country programs the organization supports, which has long been carried out, has intensified in recent years. IMF analysts have sought to “open up the black box” by more closely examining program design and implementation, as well as how these influence programs’ effectiveness. Their efforts have also focused on identifying the lending, signaling, and monitoring features of the IMF that may affect member countries’ economic performance. This book reports on a large portion of both the new and the continuing research. It concludes that IMF programs work best where domestic politics and institutions permit the timely implementation of the necessary measures and when a country is vulnerable to, but not yet in, a crisis. It points to the need for a wider recognition of the substantial diversity among IMF member countries and for programs to be tailored accordingly while broadly maintaining the IMF’s general principle of uniformity of treatment.
Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt written by S. Ali Abbas and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-10-21 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950 2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability and the Fiscal Reaction Function for South Africa written by Charl Jooste and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating the question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (OLS, VAR, TAR, GMM, State-Space modelling and VECM). The paper finds that since 1946 the South African government has ran a sustainable fiscal policy, by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, the paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/GDP ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.
Download or read book Fiscal Risks Sources Disclosure and Management written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-05-31 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.
Download or read book Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth written by Mr.James Daniel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08-17 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.
Download or read book Assessing Country Risk written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Download or read book Mastering the Risky Business of Public Private Partnerships in Infrastructure written by Manal Fouad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment in infrastructure can be a driving force of the economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of shrinking fiscal space. Public-private partnerships (PPP) bring a promise of efficiency when carefully designed and managed, to avoid creating unnecessary fiscal risks. But fiscal illusions prevent an understanding the sources of fiscal risks, which arise in all infrastructure projects, and that in PPPs present specific characteristics that need to be addressed. PPP contracts are also affected by implicit fiscal risks when they are poorly designed, particularly when a government signs a PPP contract for a project with no financial sustainability. This paper reviews the advantages and inconveniences of PPPs, discusses the fiscal illusions affecting them, identifies a diversity of fiscal risks, and presents the essentials of PPP fiscal risk management.
