Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices written by L. Alan Winters and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-03-08 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of an international conference on 'Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy', held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities covers topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this stock is its development of the policy implications of theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussant's comments to draw out their technical and policy implications. The book's readership will include commodity economists, commodity market practitioners and policy analysis, as well as professionals and advanced students interested in the fields of applied econometrics, economic development and international trade.
Download or read book The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, even though most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. Rather the literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities may be less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods.
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables written by Theodosios B. Palaskas and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy written by Marian Radetzki and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-26 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The dramatic price falls of 2014–2015 marked the end of the most powerful and enduring commodity boom since the Second World War. Now in its third edition, this book acts as a guide to the ins and outs of the primary commodity universe. Updates to this edition reflect on the consequences of both China's economic slowdown as its industrialization enters a new, less commodity demanding phase, and changes in the USA's trade policy under the Trump administration. Additionally, this edition takes into account recent developments in world oil markets and examines the effects of increased climate concerns. The authors introduce and explain pertinent issues surrounding international commodity markets such as the global geography of raw materials, price formation, price trends, the role of commodity exchanges, the threat of depletion, cartel action, state ownership, emerging commodity nationalism and more.
Download or read book Primary Commodities written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-09-15 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study prepared by the Commodities Division of the Research Department reviews and analyzes the developments in commodity markets.
Download or read book Commodity and Manufactures Prices in the Long Run written by Mr.James M. Boughton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-05-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The low level of primary commodity prices since 1985 is examined in the context of the behavior of those prices relative to prices of manufactured goods since 1854. The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in relative commodity prices is sustained, but the recent decline is shown to be well outside the realm of historical experience. Commodity and manufactures prices are found to be cointegrated, conditional on the negative trend and a number of unexplained short-term swings. The earlier finding of a Gibson paradox is explained in terms of the difference between short- and long-run relationships.
Download or read book Primary Commodity Prices written by John T Cuddington and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy written by Marian Radetzki and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-26 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revised edition of A handbook of primary commodities in the global economy, 2017.
Download or read book Primary Commodities written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1986-01-01 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an analysis of recent developments relating to the major nonfuel primary commodities (hereafter referred to as commodities) entering international trade. The unit value of manufactured exports in dollar terms also increased every year from 1972 to 1980; the rate of increase was 1 2 percent per annum. The persistent upward trend in dollar prices of commodities that characterized much of the 1970s ended in 1980. In addition to the movements in exchange rates outlined above, which determine the differences in price movements when measured in different currencies, the factors shown in various studies to have the greatest impact on current commodity prices are the rates of world inflation, the level of economic activity in the major markets for primary commodities, and the supply of the commodities concerned. Econometric studies have shown a positive relationship between commodity prices and inflation. In one study, changes in domestic wholesale prices of the industrial countries were found to have a significantly positive relationship to commodity prices with an elasticity of about one.
Download or read book Unemployment and Primary Commodity Prices written by Annalisa Cristini and published by Springer. This book was released on 1999-04-30 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book discusses the links between primary commodity prices and the OECD rate of unemployment. In particular it formalises and estimates a macroeconomic model which by endogenizing both the OECD rate of unemployment and primary commodity prices, is capable of accounting for the feedback running from the primary market back to the OECD economy. Simulations are also performed to provide insights into the propagation mechanism of an oil price shock and the role played by the various factors to determine the final effect.
Download or read book Primary commodity prices analysis and forecasting written by W. Driehuis and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Models of Primary Commodity Prices written by C. L. Gilbert and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard linear model fails to account for primary commodity price movements in any significant area, so it is important to do more empirical work to learn to which commodities this nonlinear model applies.
Download or read book The Outlook for Primary Commodities written by Enzo R. Grilli and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the short- and medium-term price and trade outlook for the primary commodities that are of special interest to developing countries. It is the result of an in-depth review of market prospects for primary commodities. It provides an overview of the macro-economic assumptions which were taken as a basis for the forecasts, a summary of the main results of the forecasts and a discussion of some of the key implications of the forecast exercise and policy issues that arise from the analysis. Specifically, Part I - Price and Trade Outlook is addressed covering: commodity markets in 1981-82; the short-term price outlook: 1982-83, the long-term price outlook for non-fuel commodities: 1990-95; qualifications of the long-term outlook for energy prices; and the long-term outlook for non-fuel commodity consumption, trade and developing countries' export revenues. Part II deals with the Implications and Issues and discusses: production growth in food crops - a comparative analysis; investment requirements in the non-fuel mineral industry 1980-95; commodities in world trade global and regional implications of the price and trade volume forecasts; international commodity agreements; agricultural protectionism and import penetration by developing countries.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Download or read book El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices written by Allan D. Brunner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-12 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the historical effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world primary commodity prices, as well as other measures of world economic activity. There is, of course, an extensive literature devoted to estimating the effects of weather on economic activity. The bulk of this work concerns the effects of relatively high-frequency changes in weather on economic activity. While the importance of weather varies by geographic region and by industrial sector,2 a plethora of studies have documented the effects of precipitation and temperature on agricultural production,3 energy demand,4 and construction activity. 5 In addition, Saunders (1993) found that Wall Street weather has significant psychological effects on daily stock market returns.
Download or read book The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices written by Rabah Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, although most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities are less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods. However, the challenges of managing terms of trade volatility in developing countries with concentrated export baskets remain.
