Download or read book Predictive Accuracy of Experimental Asset Markets written by Carsten Schmidt and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Experimental Analysis of Information Acquisition in Prediction Markets written by Lionel Page and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Download or read book The Informational Efficiency of Experimental Asset Markets written by Daniel Friedman and published by London : Department of Economics, University of Western Ontario. This book was released on 1983 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Immediate Disclosure Or Secrecy written by Lucy F. Ackert and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effects of Subject Pool and Design Experience on Rationality in Experimental Asset Markets written by Lucy F. Ackert and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Overpricing Persistence in Experimental Asset Markets with Intrinsic Uncertainty written by Didier Sornette and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Partial Revelation of Information in Experimental Asset Markets written by Daniel Friedman and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Experimental Asset Markets written by Shyam Sunder and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Momentum and Overreaction in Experimental Asset Markets written by Gunduz Caginalp and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Price volatility and investor overreactions are commonplace in experimental asset markets. Understanding the price dynamics in these markets is crucial for designing successful new trading institutions. We report on a series of experiments to test the predictions of a new momentum model using a dynamical systems approach. This model is then pitted against several standard models to predict prices, as well as against expert human forecasters. The comparative results suggest that each model has its advantages and regions of best performance. Overall, the best predictive methods are the momentum model and expert human forecasters.

Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Stefan Palan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-10-03 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.

Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.

Download or read book Literature Review of Experimental Asset Markets with Insiders written by Robert Merl and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Experimental Asset Markets with an Indefinite Horizon written by John Duffy and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Experimental Asset Markets written by Owen Powell and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews new research on experimental asset markets, markets in which the value of the traded asset is homogeneous across all agents. Such markets have been shown to be prone to substantial mispricing, usually in the form of a bubble-and-crash pattern. This calls into question the efficiency of such markets. The studies reviewed consider how market efficiency is affected by the characteristics of traders (intelligence, knowledge, etc.), the properties of the traded asset (the time path of fundamental value, information provision, etc.), and the structure of the market (market interventions, compensation schemes, etc.). Finally, the paper summarizes with a discussion related to defining a unique measure of mispricing.

Download or read book Price Manipulation in an Experimental Asset Market written by Helena Veiga and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effect of Forecast Bias on Market Behavior written by Lucy F. Ackert and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Trade in Experimental Asset Markets written by Tim A. Carle and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: