Download or read book Predictive Ability of Current Earnings and Cash Flows written by Percy Gumbi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research investigated the ability of current earnings and cash flows to predict future cash flows and future share prices. The investigation was conducted used financial information of JSE listed companies over a period between 2001 and 2011. The objectives of the research were to establish the predictive ability of current earnings and cash flows on future cash flows and share prices. This study was motivated by the findings of Kim and Kross (2005) where they consolidated the earlier findings by Collins et al. (1997) and Dechow et al. (1998). It was predetermined that the study would add to the body of knowledge in financial statements analysis and the application of earnings and cash flows as the predictive financial variables, Earnings are regarded as an essential measure of company of company's performance and cash flows from operations as a measure of the company's ability to generate cash flows from their operations. It was noted that investors do study and analyse these financial elements when investment decisions are made (Higgins, 2009: De Fond and Hung, 2003). It was found that earnings did not have the predictive ability on future cash flows but proved to possess high predictive power over future share prices. The results were not in agreement with the previous studied on the same subject. The average of R-square on current earnings ability to predict future cash flows were R2=0.27 and 0.38 in the long run and short run, respectively. The predictive ability on future share prices were R2=0.44 and 0.54 in the long and short run, respectively. Current cash flows on the hand indicated low predictive ability on future share price where the average R2=0.24 and 0.33 in the long and short run respectively. The predictive ability on current cash flows over future cash flows proved to be higher, which was not consistent with the previous researchers. The average R2 were 0.44 and 0.46 in the long and short run. It was noted that these financial elements proved to possess higher predictive abilities in the short run.

Download or read book Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows written by Mary E. Barth and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Comparative Predictive Abilities of Earnings and Operating Cash Flows on Future Cash Flows written by Joseph Agana and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cash flow prediction is an essential component of economic decision making, particularly in investment and credit evaluation. This paper examines the comparative predictive ability of earnings and operating cash flows variables on future operating cash flows within a developing economy's setting. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is used to develop regression models over the period of 2002 to 2012. Current operating cash flows, as proxy for future operating cash flows, are regressed on past one, two and three years of earnings and operating cash flows as predictors. Results from the regression analysis reveals earnings and operating cash flows are significant in predicting future operating cash flows but have different predictive powers with earnings providing a superior comparative predictive ability on future cash flows. The paper therefore concludes that earnings are a better predictor of future operating cash flows than historical operating cash flows itself.

Download or read book The usefulness of accounting measures in predicting future cash flow written by Nikolay Draganov and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-08-10 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2021 in the subject Business economics - Accounting and Taxes, grade: 1,0, University of Cologne, language: English, abstract: The primary aim of this study is to empirically examine the relative ability of accounting earnings and cash flow to predict future cash flow. Moreover, the role of accruals in cash flow predictions is called into question. One of the major purposes of financial reporting consists in ensuring an informational basis that helps investors, creditors and other users of accounting data to overcome the uncertainty associated with the future cash flows of enterprises their financial activity relates to. At the same time, the accrual concept prevails in modern accounting, since it is theorized to mitigate the mismatching and timing problems of the unrefined cash ba-sis accounting. Hence, recognizing revenues and expenses in the period when they have occurred, and not when cash was received or paid out, should create a more relevant framework for decision making. The use of accrual accounting earnings as a summary measure of financial performance instead of the more primitive cash flows is therefore advocated by accounting standard setters. For instance, the Financial Accounting Stand-ard Board claims that: “Information about enterprise earnings and its components measured by accrual accounting generally provides a better indica-tion of enterprise performance than information about current cash receipts and pay-ments”. The FASB’s statement led to a rising discussion in the financial research on whether accounting earnings provide a more reliable picture of a company’s future operating cash flows than current operating cash flows themselves do. Hence, a major implication of the above quotation refers to the incremental power of accruals and its components in predicting future cash flows beyond the one contained into current operating cash flows. This debate represents a cornerstone in evaluating the information quality offered by the accrual accounting concept.

Download or read book Accrual Accounting Cash Accounting and the Estimation of Future Cash Flows written by Aliasghar Mottaghi and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates the predictive ability of current and past cash flows with respect to the estimation of future cash flow, and compares this predictive ability with that of current and past earnings. Future cash flow is estimated in this study on the basis of a model hierarchy that initially incorporates aggregated predictors and then their disaggregated components, with the objective of improving on conventional research design with respect to the problematic issues surrounding missing values in source databases, extreme values in the sampled data and variability in fiscal year length. In determining whether the disaggregation of earnings into cash flow, accruals and their components adds to the predictive ability of cash flow, the present thesis also documents out-of-sample accuracy tests for the UK based on initial in-sample estimations, with accruals being computed using both the information in the Statement of Cash Flows and the information that may be derived from Balance Sheet changes. Using the information in the Statement of Cash Flows, the results of the in-sample estimation indicate that, whilst there is no notable difference between the ability of cash flow and aggregate earnings to predict future cash flow, the disaggregation of earnings into cash flow and accruals improves the prediction. The out-of-sample accuracy tests confirm the standard result that this disaggregated earnings model is a better predictor of future cash flow. In contrast, this thesis shows that, when using information in the Balance Sheet, by way of changes from one period to the next, the results of both the in-sample estimation and the out-of-sample accuracy tests show that disaggregated earnings is unable to outperform aggregate earnings in predicting future cash flow. Nevertheless, when the total accrual is further disaggregated into its deferral and accrual components, in-sample estimation reveals additional improvement in predictive ability, using each of the two sources of information to compute total accruals (the Statement of Cash Flows and Balance Sheet changes), although this is less evident with the out-of-sample tests. Whilst further analysis indicates that disaggregation is more informative when the firm size is large, the magnitude of accruals is low and the firm reports a positive CFO and EBIT, the thesis shows that the ability of the estimation models to predict future cash flow differs across industries in the UK, and that the findings are generally sensitive to the effect of database choice, the fiscal year length, and the identification and treatment of unrecorded data.

Download or read book An Empirical Investigation of the Usefulness of Financial Reporting Information in Predicting Future Cash Flows written by Arthur Bruce Caster and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Role of Accruals in Predicting Future Cash Flows and Stock Returns written by Francois Brochet and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We revisit the role of the cash and accrual components of accounting earnings in predicting future cash flows using out-of-sample predictions, firm-specific regression estimates, and different levels of aggregation of the dependent variable, with market value of equity as a proxy for all future cash flows. We find that, on average, accruals improve upon current cash flow from operations in predicting future cash flows. As accruals' contribution to the prediction of future cash flows varies significantly across firm-quarters, we proceed to investigating determinants of accruals' predictive ability for future cash flows. We find that positive accruals are more likely to improve upon current cash flow in predicting future cash flows. Accruals' contribution is also increasing in cash flow volatility and decreasing in the magnitude of discretionary accruals and of special items. Finally, portfolios formed on stock return predictions using information from current CFO and accruals yield significantly positive returns on average, as opposed to CFO alone. Hence, investors using predictions based on current accounting data to pick stocks are better off taking accruals into account. We also find that Sloan's (1996) accrual anomaly is related to our accrual contribution anomaly. Indeed, when accruals' contribution to future cash flow prediction is the highest, the accrual anomaly vanishes.

Download or read book The Incremental Predictive Ability of Accrual Models With Respect to Future Cash Flows written by Timothy R. Yoder and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior studies on the incremental predictive ability of accrual models over cash flow models with respect to future cash flows have led to conflicting results. This paper presents an accrual-based cash flow prediction model based on a random walk in cash flows adjusted for the reversal of current payables and receivables. Results indicate that this simple accrual model predicts future cash flows (out-of-sample) better than models based on current cash flows alone. This paper also provides a more sophisticated accrual model by extending the model of the accrual process developed by Barth, Cram, and Nelson (2001) to include cash flow implications of growth in future sales. This more sophisticated accrual-based prediction model estimated via WLS (while pooling the prior three years of observations) predicts future cash flows better than both the simple accrual reversal model and the cash flow-based models, indicating that the accrual model contains information about future cash flow beyond the simple mechanical reversal of accruals. One explanation is that accruals may contain information regarding future sales. Consistent with this explanation, the paper finds that the accrual-based WLS model is superior to the cash flow-based model in capturing the effect of future sales on future cash flows. To determine whether the improved forecast accuracy is large enough to affect decision-making by financial statement users, the deciles of firms ranked on forecasted cash flow are compared to the deciles of firms ranked on actual future cash flow. The accrual-based model is superior to the cash flow-based model in placing firms into the correct deciles of actual future cash flow.

Download or read book Changes in Accrual Properties and Operating Environment written by Suresh Nallareddy and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reconciles conflicting evidence in prior literature on the relative ability of earnings and cash flows in predicting future cash flows. Further, we investigate the implications of temporal shifts in accrual properties and operating environment for cash flow predictability. Three key insights emerge. First, cash flows consistently outperform earnings in predicting future cash flows. Second, accruals and its components, including those capturing non-articulating events, have incremental (albeit small) predictive ability over cash flows. Third, earnings' ability to predict future cash flows has increased over the period 1989-2015, due to changes in operating environment rather than accrual properties.

Download or read book An Empirical Analysis of the Predictive Ability of Alternative Income Measures written by Fernando Bravo Herrera and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Analysts Cash Flow Forecasts and the Predictive Ability and Pricing of Operating Cash Flows written by Andrew C. Call and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I examine the association between analysts' cash flow forecasts and the predictive ability and pricing of operating cash flows. I argue that when analysts issue cash flow forecasts, they serve a monitoring role over the firm's reported cash flow information. Consistent with this idea, I find the ability of current cash flows to predict future cash flows is greater for firms whose analysts issue cash flow forecasts, and improves when analysts begin forecasting cash flows, suggesting analysts' cash flow forecasts discipline managers to report cash flow information that is more informative about future firm prospects. Furthermore, I find the incremental weight investors assign to operating cash flows is greater for firms with a cash flow forecast than for firms without a cash flow forecast, and increases in the years immediately after analysts begin issuing cash flow forecasts. As a result, the anomalous underpricing of operating cash flows is eliminated for firms whose analysts issue cash flow forecasts. These results suggest analysts' cash flow forecasts have implications for both the reporting and pricing of cash flow information.

Download or read book Informativeness and Predictability of Earnings and Cash Flows written by Zhemin Wang and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Predictive Ability and Usefulness of Accounting Operating Cash Flows written by Dennis Ridley and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidence is provided of the usefulness of accounting cash flow (CF) data to investors and creditors by examining the predictive ability of quarterly operating cash flows. In this study, moving window spectral (MWS) analysis, a frequency domain approach, is applied to accounting time series data for the first time. This method is adopted because of its unique ability to capture trend and cyclical components in the data. Our results show that cash flows can be reliably predicted using aggregate data on a firm by firm basis. In addition, our results outperform the results previously reported in the accounting literature. If the FASB were to require CF disclosures on a segment basis, we believe further improvement in prediction would be possible, thereby enhancing the usefulness of reported CF data. This research provides insight into the properties of accounting time series data not possible from a strictly time domain analysis.

Download or read book The Predictive Ability of Quarterly Accrual and Cash Flow Variables written by Loren Wenzel and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Consistent Estimation of Future Cash Flow and Future Earnings written by Ehsan Khansalar and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In empirical financial accounting research, there continues to be a debate as to what the best predictors of future earnings and future cash flows might be. Past accruals, earnings and cash flows are the most common predictors, but there is no consensus over their relative contributions, and little attention to the underlying accounting identities that link the components of these three prominent variables. The aim of this thesis is to investigate this controversy further, and to apply an innovative method which yields consistent estimations of future earnings and cash flows, with higher precision and greater efficiency than is the case in published results to date. The estimation imposes constraints based on financial statement articulation, using a system of structural regressions and a framework of simultaneous linear equations, which allows for the most basic property of accounting - double entry book-keeping - to be incorporated as a set of constraints within the model. In predicting future cash flows, the results imply that the constrained model which observes the double entry condition is superior to the models that are not constrained in this way, producing (a) rational signs consistent with expectations, not only in the entire sample but also in each industry, (b) evidence that double entry holds, based on the Wald test that the estimated marginal responses sum to zero, and (c) confirmation of model improvement by way of a higher likelihood and greater precision attached to predictor variables. Furthermore, by then using an appropriately specified model that observes the double entry constraint in order to predict earnings, the thesis reports statistically significant results, across all industries, that cash flows are superior to accruals in explaining future earnings, indicating also that accruals with a lower level of reliability tend to be more relevant in this respect.

Download or read book Research Methods and Statistics in Psychology written by Hugh Coolican and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2017-08-16 with total page 788 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This sixth edition of Research Methods and Statistics in Psychology has been fully revised and updated, providing students with the most readable and comprehensive survey of research methods, statistical concepts and procedures in psychology today. Assuming no prior knowledge, this bestselling text takes you through every stage of your research project giving advice on planning and conducting studies, analysing data and writing up reports. The book provides clear coverage of statistical procedures, and includes everything needed from nominal level tests to multi-factorial ANOVA designs, multiple regression and log linear analysis. It features detailed and illustrated SPSS instructions for all these procedures eliminating the need for an extra SPSS textbook. New features in the sixth edition include: "Tricky bits" - in-depth notes on the things that students typically have problems with, including common misunderstandings and likely mistakes. Improved coverage of qualitative methods and analysis, plus updates to Grounded Theory, Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis and Discourse Analysis. A full and recently published journal article using Thematic Analysis, illustrating how articles appear in print. Discussion of contemporary issues and debates, including recent coverage of journals’ reluctance to publish replication of studies. Fully updated online links, offering even more information and useful resources, especially for statistics. Each chapter contains a glossary, key terms and newly integrated exercises, ensuring that key concepts are understood. A companion website (www.routledge.com/cw/coolican) provides additional exercises, revision flash cards, links to further reading and data for use with SPSS.

Download or read book Analysts Use of Accruals and Cash Flows in Forecasting Earnings written by Ramesh Narayana Chari and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This research investigates whether financial analysts fully incorporate the information contained in accrual and cash flow components of current earnings when forecasting future earnings. I present evidence that analysts fail to fully incorporate the implications of these components for earnings persistence in their forecasts. Analysts' appear to ignore information in past earnings to a greater extent when the magnitude of accruals in prior year earnings is large relative to cash flows. I find that information in these components can be used to improve analysts' forecasts. This improvement is most evident for firms which have a high incidence of accruals in prior year earnings. I demonstrate the economic significance of improving analysts' forecasts by implementing a trading strategy that predicts stock price changes. This trading strategy yields significantly positive risk-adjusted abnormal returns. These results suggest that analysts' forecasting inefficiency (see Mendenhall, 1991) is potentially rooted in their misperceptions about the implications of accruals and cash flows for earnings persistence. These findings are useful to accounting standard-setters and to capital markets research that uses analysts' forecasts to proxy for earnings expectations.