Download or read book Prediction and Nonparametric Estimation for Time Series with Heavy Tails written by Peter Hall and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by prediction problems for time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions, we consider methods based on 'local least absolute deviations' for estimating a regression median from dependent data. Unlike more conventional 'local median' methods, which are in effect based on locally fitting a polynomial of degree 0, techniques founded on local least absolute deviations have quadratic bias right up to the boundary of the design interval. Also in contrast to local least-squares methods based on linear fits, the order of magnitude of variance does not depend on tail-weight of the error distribution. To make these points clear, we develop theory describing local applications to time series of both least-squares and least-absolute-deviations methods, showing for example that, in the case of heavy-tailed data, the conventional local-linear least-squares estimator suffers from an additional bias term as well as increased variance.
Download or read book Nonlinear Time Series written by Jianqing Fan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-11 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book that integrates useful parametric and nonparametric techniques with time series modeling and prediction, the two important goals of time series analysis. Such a book will benefit researchers and practitioners in various fields such as econometricians, meteorologists, biologists, among others who wish to learn useful time series methods within a short period of time. The book also intends to serve as a reference or text book for graduate students in statistics and econometrics.
Download or read book Statistics And Finance An Interface Proceedings Of The Hong Kong International Workshop On Statistics In Finance written by Wai-sum Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2000-04-28 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents:Heavy-Tailed and Nonlinear Continuous-Time ARMA Models for Financial Time Series (P J Brockwell)Nonlinear State Space Model Approach to Financial Time Series with Time-Varying Variance (G Kitagawa & S Sato)Nonparametric Estimation and Bootstrap for Financial Time Series (J-P Kreiβ)A Note on Kernel Estimation in Integrated Time Series (Y-C Xia et al.)Stylized Facts on the Temporal and Distributional Properties of Absolute Returns: An Update (C W J Granger et al.)Volatility Computed by Time Series Operators at High Frequency (U A Müller)Missing Values in ARFIMA Models (W Palma)Second Order Tail Effects (C G de Vries)Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Model via Scale Mixtures Distributions (S T B Choy & C M Chan)On a Smooth Transition Double Threshold Model (Y N Lee & W K Li)Interval Prediction of Financial Time Series (B Cheng & H Tong)A Decision Theoretic Approach to Forecast Evaluation (C W J Granger & M H Pesaran)Portfolio Management and Market Risk Quantification Using Neural Networks (J Franke)Detecting Structural Changes Using Genetic Programming with an Application to the Greater-China Stock Markets (X B Zhang et al.)and other papers Readership: Researchers in finance, time series analysis, economics and actuarial science, as well as investment bankers, stock market analysts and risk managers. Keywords:Proceedings;Workshop;Statistics;Finance;Hongkong (China)
Download or read book Nonparametric High dimensional Time Series written by Jiraroj Tosasukul and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Fundamentals of Heavy Tails written by Jayakrishnan Nair and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-06-09 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy tails –extreme events or values more common than expected –emerge everywhere: the economy, natural events, and social and information networks are just a few examples. Yet after decades of progress, they are still treated as mysterious, surprising, and even controversial, primarily because the necessary mathematical models and statistical methods are not widely known. This book, for the first time, provides a rigorous introduction to heavy-tailed distributions accessible to anyone who knows elementary probability. It tackles and tames the zoo of terminology for models and properties, demystifying topics such as the generalized central limit theorem and regular variation. It tracks the natural emergence of heavy-tailed distributions from a wide variety of general processes, building intuition. And it reveals the controversy surrounding heavy tails to be the result of flawed statistics, then equips readers to identify and estimate with confidence. Over 100 exercises complete this engaging package.
Download or read book Heavy Tailed Time Series written by Rafal Kulik and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to present a comprehensive, self-contained, and concise overview of extreme value theory for time series, incorporating the latest research trends alongside classical methodology. Appropriate for graduate coursework or professional reference, the book requires a background in extreme value theory for i.i.d. data and basics of time series. Following a brief review of foundational concepts, it progresses linearly through topics in limit theorems and time series models while including historical insights at each chapter’s conclusion. Additionally, the book incorporates complete proofs and exercises with solutions as well as substantive reference lists and appendices, featuring a novel commentary on the theory of vague convergence.
Download or read book Financial Surveillance written by Marianne Frisen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-28 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book-length treatment of statistical surveillance methods used in financial analysis. It contains carefully selected chapters written by specialists from both fields and strikes a balance between the financial and statistical worlds, enhancing future collaborations between the two areas, and enabling more successful prediction of financial market trends. The book discusses, in detail, schemes for different control charts and different linear and nonlinear time series models and applies methods to real data from worldwide markets, as well as including simulation studies.
Download or read book Time Series Prediction written by Andreas S. Weigend and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-05-04 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a summary of a time series forecasting competition that was held a number of years ago. It aims to provide a snapshot of the range of new techniques that are used to study time series, both as a reference for experts and as a guide for novices.
Download or read book Nonparametric Time Series Prediction written by Young K. Truong and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Combined Parametric and Nonparametric Approach to Time Series Analysis written by Stefan Kriebol and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis and prediction of natural phenomena is an interesting and challenging task. Time series obtained from the observation of one or more features of a phenomenon are often the only access to the data generating system. Unfortunately, time series analysis is usually done by specialists in the field of the phenomenon with traditional analysis techniques. The application of modern analysis and prediction tools is often avoided due to their complexity or the risk of failure. This issue can be surmounted by an interdisciplinary approach. This work is an example for the possible synergetic effect of interdisciplinary research. In the field of oceanography the coastal upwelling phenomenon is analysed in experimental studies with a numerical model in order to develop a parametric prediction model. Artificial neural networks seem to be a suitable parametric model. However, in the field of computer science traditional artificial neural techniques showed limitations in the analysis and prediction of time series obtained from natural phenomena, particularly with nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Motivated by this limitations a new approach to time series analysis and prediction is presented in this work, the mixture of nonparametric segmented experts (MONSE). The MONSE approach is exploiting the synergetic effect of a combined nonparametric and parametric analysis. It is supposed to be applied to explorative time series analysis and prediction in various fields, i.e. in a context where hardly any kowledge about the time series of concern is available.
Download or read book A Nonparametric approach to the construction of prediction intervals for time series forecasts Working Paper No 63 written by W.Allen Spivey and William W. Wecker and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonparametric Analysis of Univariate Heavy Tailed Data written by Natalia Markovich and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-03-11 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Heavy-tailed distributions are typical for phenomena in complex multi-component systems such as biometry, economics, ecological systems, sociology, web access statistics, internet traffic, biblio-metrics, finance and business. The analysis of such distributions requires special methods of estimation due to their specific features. These are not only the slow decay to zero of the tail, but also the violation of Cramer’s condition, possible non-existence of some moments, and sparse observations in the tail of the distribution. The book focuses on the methods of statistical analysis of heavy-tailed independent identically distributed random variables by empirical samples of moderate sizes. It provides a detailed survey of classical results and recent developments in the theory of nonparametric estimation of the probability density function, the tail index, the hazard rate and the renewal function. Both asymptotical results, for example convergence rates of the estimates, and results for the samples of moderate sizes supported by Monte-Carlo investigation, are considered. The text is illustrated by the application of the considered methodologies to real data of web traffic measurements.
Download or read book Estimation of the Parameters for Non stationary Time Series with Long Memory and Heavy Tails Using Weak Dependence Condition written by Elżbieta Gajecka-Mirek and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Time Series Theory and Methods written by Peter J. Brockwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1991 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here is a systematic account of linear time series models and their application to the modeling and prediction of data collected sequentially in time. It details techniques for handling data and offers a thorough understanding of their mathematical basis.
Download or read book Time Series Analysis written by Chun-Kit Ngan and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2019-11-06 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims to provide readers with the current information, developments, and trends in a time series analysis, particularly in time series data patterns, technical methodologies, and real-world applications. This book is divided into three sections and each section includes two chapters. Section 1 discusses analyzing multivariate and fuzzy time series. Section 2 focuses on developing deep neural networks for time series forecasting and classification. Section 3 describes solving real-world domain-specific problems using time series techniques. The concepts and techniques contained in this book cover topics in time series research that will be of interest to students, researchers, practitioners, and professors in time series forecasting and classification, data analytics, machine learning, deep learning, and artificial intelligence.
Download or read book Advances in Time Series Analysis and Forecasting written by Ignacio Rojas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-31 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of selected and peer-reviewed contributions on the latest developments in time series analysis and forecasting updates the reader on topics such as analysis of irregularly sampled time series, multi-scale analysis of univariate and multivariate time series, linear and non-linear time series models, advanced time series forecasting methods, applications in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series and high-dimensional and complex/big data time series. The contributions were originally presented at the International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2016, held in Granada, Spain, June 27-29, 2016. The series of ITISE conferences provides a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing the disciplines of computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.
Download or read book Mathematical Reviews written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 804 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
