Download or read book PREDICTING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS USING A FULLY COUPLED 3D REGIONAL MODELING SYSTEM written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract : The Great Lakes of North America are the largest surface freshwater system in the world and many ecosystems, industries, and coastal processes are sensitive to the changes in their water levels. The recent changes in the Great Lakes climate and water levels have particularly highlighted the importance of water level prediction. The water levels of the Great Lakes are primarily governed by the net basin supplies (NBS) of each lake which are the sum of over-lake precipitation and basin runoff minus lake evaporation. Recent studies have utilized Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with a fully coupled one-dimensional (1D) lake model to predict the future NBS, and the Coordinated Great Lakes Regulating and Routing Model (CGLRRM) has been used to predict the future water levels. However, multiple studies have emphasized the need for a three-dimensional (3D) lake model to accurately simulate the Great Lakes water budget. Therefore, in this study, we used the Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM) along with the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) and CGLRRM to predict the changes in NBS and water levels by the mid- and late twenty-first century. GLARM is a 3D regional climate modeling system for the Great Lakes region that is fully coupled to a 3D hydrodynamic lake and ice model. This is the first study to use such an advanced model for water level prediction in the Great Lakes. We found that both annual over-lake precipitation and basin runoff are most likely to increase into the future. We also found that annual lake evaporation is most likely to decrease in Lake Superior but increase in all the other lakes. We posit that the decreases in evaporation are due to decreased wind speed over the lakes and decreased difference between saturated and actual specific humidity over the lakes. Our predicted changes in the three components of NBS would lead to mostly increased NBS and water levels in the future. The ensemble average of our predicted water level changes for Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are +0.14 m, +0.37 m, and +0.23 m by the mid-twenty-first century, respectively, and +0.47 m, +1.29 m, and +0.80 m by the late twenty-first century, respectively. However, due to the multiple sources of uncertainties associated with climate modeling and predictions, the water level predictions from this study should not be viewed as exact predictions. These predictions are unique to our model configuration and methodology. Other studies can easily predict different water level changes through the use of different models and methodologies. Therefore, more predictions from advanced modeling systems like GLARM are needed to generate a consensus on future water level changes in the Great Lakes.
Download or read book THE GREAT LAKES CLIMATE ANALYSIS USING A TWO WAY COUPLED 3 D GREAT LAKES ATMOSPHERE REGIONAL MODEL WITH DATA ASSIMILATION METHODOLOGY written by and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract : The objective of this work is to provide the best estimation of physical state of the Great Lakes using the two-way coupled Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM) integrated with Data Assimilation (DA) methodology. The aim of the first part is to understand the lake internal process that determines the relationship between lake surface temperature (LST) and lake thermal variations. A 3-D hydrodynamic model was used to examine the nonlinear processes of water mixing and ice formation that caused changes in lake heat content and further variation of LST. The results show that heat content trends do not necessarily follow (and can even be opposed to) trends in LST. In addition, the lake total lake heat content, thermal properties, length of stratification periods, and lake stability intensity were analyzed using validated GLARM 3-D results from 1983-2016. Furthermore, the lake thermal variations were analyzed using physical stability indices. The results reveal that climate change would not only affect the air-lake energy exchange but can also alter lake internal dynamics. In the second part, a Great Lakes forecast system with both long-term and short-term predictions is presented. A downscaled, robust, and sophisticated two-way coupled GLARM model was used to project the climate change over the Great Lakes region over the periods of 2030 - 2050 and 2080 - 2100. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were included. As a result, the stress in air temperature and precipitation during the period of 2080 - 2100 under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) will be exacerbated with larger spatial variability compared with the medium emission scenario (RCP4.5). For lake conditions, annual mean LST of Lake Erie shows the largest changes among the five lakes. The decrease in the mean lake ice coverage is projected over all the five lakes, while the largest decrease occurs along the coast. Furthermore, the application of DA using Lake Erie as a case study was evaluated. The results show that DA can effectively improve the model performance with limited observational data. The data assimilative model also improves forecasting accuracy and restrains the forecasting uncertainty to an acceptable level on a timescale of 1-7 days after unleashed from DA.
Download or read book Potential Climate Change Effects on Great Lakes Hydrodynamics and Water Quality written by David C. L. Lam and published by ASCE Publications. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides a state-of-the-art review of the climate change effects on lake hydrodynamics and water quality. Most of the engineering cases in this book deal with the ability of existing infrastructure to cope with extreme weather conditions. The case studies are intended to illustrate the advancement in modeling research on lake hydrodynamics, thermal stratification, pollutant transport, and water quality by highlighting the climate change aspects in the application of these techniques. Topics include climate and lake responses, lake thermodynamics, large-scale circulation, wind-waves on large lakes, great lakes ice cover, and water quality.
Download or read book Reaffirmation of Large Biases in a Long used Method for Projecting Changes in Great Lakes Water Levels in Climate Change Scenarios written by Brent Melvin Lofgren and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A method for projecting the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes under scenarios of human-caused climate change, used almost to the exclusion of other methods in the past, relies very heavily on the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) as a component for determining the water budget for the lake system. This model uses near-surface air temperature as a primary predictor of evapotranspiration (ET); in addition to previous published work, we show here again that its very high sensitivity to temperature makes it overestimate ET in a way that is highly inconsistent with the fundamental principle of conservation of energy at the land surface. Under the traditional formulation, the quantity that has been called "energy available for evapotranspiration," which is proportional to what we call "potential evapotranspiration" (PET), is increased by large factors in future scenarios--by a factor of nearly 600 in the Lake Superior basin under forcing by one GCM case, but more typically by factors between 3 and 10. Because of the way that LBRM is formulated and calibrated, these factors can be thought of as corresponding to the factor of increase in solar radiation incident on the Earth, or, more vividly, as the number of Suns present in the sky of the virtual world simulated by LBRM. Therefore, we have created alternative formulations, which we regard as more reflective of what is being simulated by the driving GCMs, for the way that climate change is ingested into the modeling system that includes LBRM. In addition to the energy adjustment method in which PET is increased by an amount proportional to the change in net radiative energy at the surface, we add the Priestley-Taylor method, which augments the energy adjustment method by inclusion of a temperature-dependent factor with rigorous theoretical underpinnings that is a much weaker function of temperature than in the LBRM's basic formulation, as well as the Clausius-Clapeyron method, in which the PET is increased by an amount proportional to the increase in water vapor capacity of the atmosphere, again a weaker function of temperature than in the LBRM. We establish that all three of these alternative methods show, relative to the traditional method, often astoundingly less PET and less ET, more runoff from the land and net basin supply for the lake basins, and higher lake water levels in the future. The magnitude of these discrepancies is highly correlated with the air temperature change in the driving GCM (larger temperature changes lead to larger discrepancies). Using various methods of estimating the statistical significance, we find that, at minimum, these discrepancies in results are significant at the 99.998% level.
Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-06-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.
Download or read book Climate Change in the Upper Great Lakes Region written by Peter J. Sousounis and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Great Lakes Update written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hillslope Hydrology written by M. J. Kirkby and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1978 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the behavior of water on graded land Hillslope Hydrology provides a comprehensive introduction to the behavior of water on a slope. Describing the fates of precipitation, the mechanics of runoff, and the calculations involved in assessment, this book clarifies the complex interplay of soils, sediment, subsurface flow, overland flow, saturation, erosion, and more. An ideal resource for graduate students of Earth science, environmental science, civil engineering, architecture, landscape management, and related fields, this informative guide provides the essential information needed to work effectively with graded land or predict outcomes of precipitation.
Download or read book Implications of Climatic Change for Navigation and Power Generation in the Great Lakes written by Marie Sanderson and published by The Service. This book was released on 1987 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Of the results of two phases of a study to determine the likely impact of climate change on navigation and hydro power generation in the Great Lakes. The first phase, completed in March 1985, included a review of the climate impacts literature, the construction of a theoretical framework describing the affecting links, and an evaluation of several models for their suitability for climate impact assessment. The second phase was completed in March 1986 and was a preliminary assessment, using the appropriate models.
Download or read book Water Levels of the Great Lakes written by United States. Army. Corps of Engineers. North Central Division and published by Chicago : Corps of Engineers. This book was released on 1965 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Simulation of Atmospheric and Lake Conditions in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region Using the Coupled Hydrosphere Atmosphere Research Model CHARM written by Brent Melvin Lofgren and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greenhouse gas-induced climate change will have notable effects on the Great Lakes region, in the atmosphere, land surfaces, and lakes themselves. Simulations of these effects were carried out using the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM), driven by output from the Canadian General Circulation Model version 3 (CRCM3) for past and future time periods. This results in increased downward longwave radiation and near-surface air temperature. The air temperature increases during summer have strong spatial minima directly over the lakes that are limited to the lowest model layer and seem to be associated with frequent fog depicted by CHARM. Precipitation is also generally increased, with the most spatially coherent, and among the strongest, increases occurring in the near-shore lake effect zones during winter. Evapotranspiration is generally increased, although only weakly over land, but very strongly over the lakes during winter. Water temperatures are increased and the summer stratification pattern (warmer water overlying colder) is established earlier in the year. Ice cover is diminished and limited to shallow parts of the lakes. Several bugs and shortcomings in CHARM are identified for correction in future development and use.
Download or read book Great Lakes Basin Framework Study written by United States. Great Lakes Basin Commission and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Atmospheric Modeling Data Assimilation and Predictability written by Eugenia Kalnay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.
Download or read book Postglacial Water Levels in the Great Lakes Region in Relation to Holocene Climate Change written by Adam Patrick Sarvis and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Various lake phases have developed in the upper Great Lakes in response to isostatic adjustment and changes in water supply since the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Georgian Bay experienced a lowstand that caused a basin wide unconformity approximately 7,500 years ago that cannot be explained by geological events. Thecamoebians are shelled protozoans abundant in freshwater environments and they are generally more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than the surrounding vegetation. Thecamoebians can be used to reconstruct the paleolimnology. The abundance of thecamoebians belonging to the genus Centropyxis, which are known to tolerate slightly brackish conditions (i.e. high concentrations of ions) records highly evaporative conditions in a closed basin. During the warmer interval (9000 to 700 yBP), the Centropyxis - dominated population diminishes and is replaced by an abundant and diverse Difflugia dominate population. Historical climate records from Tobermory and Midland, Ontario were correlated with the Lake Huron water level curve. The fossil pollen record and comparison with modem analogues allowed a paleo-water budget to be calculated for Georgian Bay. Transfer function analysis of fossil pollen data from Georgian Bay records cold, dry winters similar to modem day Minneapolis, Minnesota. Drier climates around this time are also recorded in bog environments in Southem Ontario - the drying of Lake Tonawanda and inception of paludification in Willoughby Bog, for instance, dates around 7,000 years ago. The dramatic impact of climate change on the water level in Georgian Bay underlines the importance of paleoclimatic research for predicting future environmental change in the Great Lakes.
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region written by Stephen Wittman and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This report presents a summary of the "Starting a public discussion" series of eight seminars on climate change and some of its likely effects on Wisconsin and the Great Lakes region that were held at seven locations around the state in 2007."
