Download or read book Predicting Major League Baseball Playoff Outcomes Through Multiple Linear Regression written by Zachary Firsick and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Frontiers in Major League Baseball written by John Ruggiero and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to Major League Baseball (MLB). DEA is a nonparametric linear programming model that is used across academic disciplines. In sports economics, authors have applied the technique primarily to assess team and/or managerial efficiency. The basis for performance analysis is economic production theory, where it is assumed that baseball can be viewed as a production process whereby inputs (player quality measures) are transformed into outputs (wins, attendance). The primary advantage that DEA has over more traditional regression based approaches is the ability to handle multiple inputs and multiple outputs. Further, the approach is nonparametric and hence, does not require a priori specification of the production function. The book develops the theory of DEA in the context of a production environment. A focal point is the assessment of technical and cost efficiency of MLB teams. It is shown that previous frontier applications that measure efficiency provide biased results given that the outcome of a game is zero-sum. If a team loses a game due to inefficiency, another team wins a lost game. A corrected frontier is presented to overcome this problem. Free agent salary arbitration is analyzed using a dual DEA model. Each free agent's contract zone is identified. The upper and lower bounds, representing the player's and team's perspective of value, respectively, are estimated. Player performance is estimated using a modified DEA model to rank order players based on multiple attributes. This model will be used to evaluate current Hall of Fame players. We provide arguments for other players who are deserving of membership. We also use our measure of performance and evaluate age-performance profilers for many ball players. Regression analysis is used to identify the age of peak performance. The method is used to evaluate some of the all-time greats. We also use the method to analyze admitted and implicated steroid users. The results clearly show that performance was enhanced. This book will provide appropriate theoretical models with methodological considerations and interesting empirical analyses and is intended to serve academics and practitioners interested in applying DEA to baseball as well as other sports or production processes. >
Download or read book Predicting Major League Baseball Playoff Probabilities Using Logistic Regression written by Evan Bittner and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major League Baseball teams are constantly assessing whether or not they think their teams will make the playoffs. Many sources publish playoff probabilities or odds throughout the season using advanced statistical methods. These methods are somewhat secretive and typically advanced and difficult to understand. The goal of this work is to determine a way to calculate playoff probabilities midseason that can easily be understood and applied. The goal is to develop a method and compare its predictive accuracy to the current methods published by statistical baseball sources such as Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs.
Download or read book SPORTS METRIC FORECASTING written by William Mallios and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2014-07-29 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Outcomes of major league games—winning/losing margins and total points scored relative to the odds makers’ lines in baseball, basketball and football—are graphed in terms of sports metric candlestick charts and then forecast in terms of adaptive drift modeling. The charts are constructed to reveal ad hoc forecasting patterns that may contribute to effective forecasting. These patterns are then included with variables contained in major sports data bases. The augmented data bases then provide input variables in the drift modeling forecasts.
Download or read book A Modern Approach to Regression with R written by Simon Sheather and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-03-11 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on tools and techniques for building regression models using real-world data and assessing their validity. A key theme throughout the book is that it makes sense to base inferences or conclusions only on valid models. Plots are shown to be an important tool for both building regression models and assessing their validity. We shall see that deciding what to plot and how each plot should be interpreted will be a major challenge. In order to overcome this challenge we shall need to understand the mathematical properties of the fitted regression models and associated diagnostic procedures. As such this will be an area of focus throughout the book. In particular, we shall carefully study the properties of resi- als in order to understand when patterns in residual plots provide direct information about model misspecification and when they do not. The regression output and plots that appear throughout the book have been gen- ated using R. The output from R that appears in this book has been edited in minor ways. On the book web site you will find the R code used in each example in the text.
Download or read book Optimizing Roster Composition in Major League Baseball written by Kyle Kroboth and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major League Baseball (MLB) teams are constantly working to gain an edge on their opponents. The MLB is the only major North American sports league without a salary cap, and as a result, one area that fans heavily scrutinize is teams' payrolls and how they are building out their rosters. However, some teams are top spenders and fail, while some bargain hunting teams find themselves in regular playoff contention. This thesis aims to determine the blueprint for a successful baseball team based on payroll, salary distribution, service time, and more. Success will be dictated by winning percentage, through a multiple linear regression model, and by playoff appearance odds, through a logistic regression. The models were also run with a subset of data strictly including "small market" teams. After testing assumptions, running regressions, and selecting models, all models were found to show a relationship between team payroll and how many players take up half of that team's payroll with both winning percentage and playoff odds. Surprisingly, payroll was not determined to correlate with success when limiting the models to small market teams, leaving only the number of players to 50% of payroll as a predictor. Overall, it was found that most of a team's success is derived from factors outside of roster composition, and even in the top model, only roughly 27% of variation in winning percentage could be described by roster composition predictors.
Download or read book Prediction of Postseason Appearance in Major League Baseball by Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning written by 王彥傑 and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Using Conventional and Sabermetric Baseball Statistics for Predicting Major League Baseball Win Percentage written by Victoria DeCesare and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major League Baseball is dominated by statistical analysis; one cannot watch a baseball game on the television without hearing and seeing a plethora of statistics such as batting average, runs batted in, earned run average, and the list goes on. In addition to these popular stats that most people are familiar with, there are several, more complex baseball statistics -- known as "sabermetric" statistics -- that have been developed over the past few decades that seek to evaluate players and the game more scientifically and comprehensively. However, with all of these stats available, it is easy to get caught up in the data and overlook the main goal of MLB teams: to win games. With this in mind, the goal of this research is to explore some of the numerous baseball statistics available, both the traditional and modern ones, and observe which ones are truly the best at predicting wins. Encompassing this, is it better to use the more complex methods in analyzing how teams win, or does it hold true that "less is more"? This research seeks to answer these questions and to provide a unique perspective for fans and managers alike when trying to make use of the ever-growing world of baseball data.
Download or read book Data Mining Techniques for the Life Sciences written by Oliviero Carugo and published by Humana. This book was released on 2016-08-23 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most life science researchers will agree that biology is not a truly theoretical branch of science. The hype around computational biology and bioinformatics beginning in the nineties of the 20th century was to be short lived (1, 2). When almost no value of practical importance such as the optimal dose of a drug or the three-dimensional structure of an orphan protein can be computed from fundamental principles, it is still more straightforward to determine them experimentally. Thus, experiments and observationsdogeneratetheoverwhelmingpartofinsightsintobiologyandmedicine. The extrapolation depth and the prediction power of the theoretical argument in life sciences still have a long way to go. Yet, two trends have qualitatively changed the way how biological research is done today. The number of researchers has dramatically grown and they, armed with the same protocols, have produced lots of similarly structured data. Finally, high-throu- put technologies such as DNA sequencing or array-based expression profiling have been around for just a decade. Nevertheless, with their high level of uniform data generation, they reach the threshold of totally describing a living organism at the biomolecular level for the first time in human history. Whereas getting exact data about living systems and the sophistication of experimental procedures have primarily absorbed the minds of researchers previously, the weight increasingly shifts to the problem of interpreting accumulated data in terms of biological function and bio- lecular mechanisms.
Download or read book An Examination Into Statistical Evaluations of Major League Baseball Coaches and Managers written by Jacob H. Zimmerman and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This exploration attempts to create statistical procedure capable of defining and comparing a Major League Baseball Manager's performance in respect to player development. Using a supervised learning method of multiple linear regression, we examine how improvements or deterioration of certain player skills predict an increase in runs scored in a season. Major League Baseball teams (N = 30) over the span of eight seasons since the beginning of the Statcast era in 2015 were evaluated on their ability to improve their team's batters' patience in selecting hittable balls, or pitch selection, and quality of contact with the baseball, and graded on how their team's variation predicts either runs scored, or additional, more traditional offensive metrics that already have well established statistics and research into their run predictiveness. Given the millions of dollars spent on team Manager contracts a year, much less the hundreds of millions spent on player assets said Manager is responsible for developing, more research and data is needed to create more understandable metrics and analytics to better judge a manager's performance"--Leaf 3.
Download or read book The Sports Business in The Pacific Rim written by Young Hoon Lee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-31 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following consistent and rapid general economic growth, Pacific Rim countries have grown as a major force in sports. Australia, China, Japan and Korea populated the top ten medals list at the 2012 London Olympics. Pacific Rim countries are major consumers of international sports and domestic professional sports have expanded continuously over time. Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korean Baseball Organization are the second and third largest baseball leagues measured by attendance and revenue following Major League Baseball in the U.S. This book also includes event studies of team ownership, assessment of human capital markets, analysis of the relationship between attendance and competitive balance, the components of fan demand in common the world over, and business decisions concerning attendance and pricing. There is already demand for comprehensive study of the sports business in the Pacific Rim as witnessed by this growth. This book will be of interest of researchers studying and/or teaching in the fields of sports economics and sports management as well as a general audience interested in business governance around the world.
Download or read book Predicting Yearly Winning Percentage and Playoff List of MLB Teams by Regression Trees written by Li-Wen LO and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Regression Analysis of Predictors on the Productivity Indices of Major League Baseball written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This ex post facto nonexperimental constructive replication study revisited earlier work by Grusky (1961, 1963), Gamson and Scotch (1964), and Gordon and Becker (1964) on whether Major League Baseball (MLB) managerial succession reflected scapegoating behaviors. Also there was interest in learning if selected independent variables were predictive of a team's won-loss record, termed the productivity index. Nineteen-years of relevant data was collected from 26 of the 30 MLB teams. The four excluded were relatively new expansion teams. The dependent variable of team efficiency, a productivity index, was the won-loss records during the tenure of a specific manager with a given team. Eight independent variables we selected as predictors: on-base percentage, on-base plus slugging percentage, walks plus hits per inning pitched, stolen-base efficiency, total team salaries, length of manager tenure, average strikeouts per nine-innings, and managerial change. The conclusions were: 1. The two most potent predictors of team efficiency were the on-base plus slugging percentage (OBS) and the walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP) statistics. According to the model studied, those two independent variables accounted for 26% of the variance in prediction. Using all eight independent variables resulted in a 27% variance. 2. Capable players who consistently performed up to expectations were the determining factor influencing productivity indices. 3. According to the model studied, managerial succession was not critical for improving a team's productivity index. Recommendations on pursuing future research included: 1. Manager approaches on actions resulting in success or failure, on intangibles such as risk-taking and team culture. 2. Qualitative approaches including interviewing current and former players, managers, team management and owners on the relative role and importance of a manager. 3. Mixed method approaches including interviewing media personnel and relevant fans on the importance of a manager. 4. Repeat the study using a longer time period and use other independent variables"--Abstract.
Download or read book The Effects of Changes in Major League Baseball Playoff Format written by Alexis Irion and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the effect on attendance of Major League Baseball (MLB) games as a result of the additional playoff round added by the MLB in 2012. Adding another round to the playoffs increases the number of teams qualifying for the playoffs from eight teams to ten teams. More teams towards the end of the season will be in the playoff race than prior to the 2012 season. It is hypothesized that with more teams having a playoff chance, an increase in attendance will result. Home game attendance is a major contributor to team revenue, thus the implications of an increase in attendance would positively impact many teams financially across the league.
Download or read book Using Multi Class Machine Learning Methods to Predict Major League Baseball Pitches written by Glenn Daniel Sidle and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Concepts for the Behavioral Sciences written by Harold O. Kiess and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-12-19 with total page 598 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fourth edition of Statistical Concepts for the Behavioral Sciences emphasizes contemporary research problems to better illustrate the relevance of statistical analysis in scientific research. All statistical methods are introduced in the context of a realistic problem, many of which are from contemporary published research. These studies are fully referenced so students can easily access the original research. The uses of statistics are then developed and presented in a conceptually logical progression for increased comprehension by using the accompanying workbook and the problem sets. Several forms of practice problems are available to students and presented in a manner that assists students in mastering component pieces before integrating them together to tackle more complicated, real-world problems.
Download or read book Salary Determination and Contract Length in Major League Baseball written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The primary objective of this dissertation is to conduct the first comprehensive, multi-period study of salary determination for batters in Major League Baseball using the same technique and variables in all models. Another objective is to shed light on the relationship between salary and contract length. A final objective is to test Krautmann-Oppenheimer's theory that players are willing to trade off salary for contract security when being rewarded for performance. For the empirical work, we use the richest data set available that covers a panel of all baseball players who have played between 1984 and 2003. Based on Hausman tests, our results show that length of contract is not correlated to the error term in the salary equation. Consequently, length of contract can be included as an important explanatory variable in salary regressions within the context of a single equation OLS model. Our empirical results shown in chapter 6 provide support for the theory of Krautmann-Oppenheimer about returns to performance for the 1984-1989, 1990-1994, and 1995-2002 periods. Namely, free agents and arbitration eligible players are willing to trade off salary in exchange for the security of a longer guaranteed contract. The results from our panel data regression show that the length of contract has been a significant determinant of the salaries for all player groups in all periods. The results also indicate that the 3-year annual average for at bats has been the most consistent predictor of player salaries in all periods while slugging average was a good predictor of salaries only in the arbitration eligible group. Additionally we find that team revenues have a consistently positive impact only on the salaries of free agents. Finally, our results show that in all periods, the salaries of ineligible players and players eligible for arbitration were consistently on the rise and that there were sizable returns to experience for all player groups between 1995 and 2002.
